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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.
- Thread starter nwdiver
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- Energy Environment Policy
mspohr
Well-Known Member
White Shadow
Member
So I have a Jeep that's now four years old. At what point would it make financial sense for me to purchase a replacement EV for it, considering that the only costs incurred at this point are fuel and maintenance costs? If I was going strictly by the numbers, I'd think that keeping and maintaining the Jeep would be the wise financial move for many, many years, assuming that no major repairs are needed.
Just FYI, my Jeep has only needed oil and filter changes over the four years I've owned it. Tires, brakes, batteries, all original, Even the wiper blades. So than oil and oil filters, I've only needed to buy gas for it. I'll probably need tires in a year or two, maybe new batteries (It has 2, a primary and an auxiliary). Brakes are probably 90% remaining. So overall, it's been a pretty inexpensive vehicle to maintain so far.
White Shadow
Member
White Shadow
Member
You are out of your mind. There's no way. Maybe 20% by 2026. How do you think we'll get to 50% in three years?
More importantly, are you talking U.S. sales or global sales? Because U.S. EV sales will lag behind global EV sales as a percentage.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
White Shadow
Member
Not just financial sense. Most of the stuff I mentioned isn't yet possible to swap to an electric version. Again, personal transportation is just a small part of overall oil usage globally.
White Shadow
Member
Well, I guess that settles it. You found a chart that shows 100% EV new car sales by 2035, so I guess that proves it. LOL
But hey, your very own graph shows 50% just before 2025, so don't shortchange yourself.
It's normal for people to think in terms of "it still works, I might as well keep it", but paradigm shifts break conventional wisdom.
When you reach a point where you drive less than 2000 miles annually on that Jeep (due to cost of fuel and you have a short-range EV for commutes), and your maintenance costs includes:
- a trickle charger to keep your 12v batteries charged, because you didn't drive it in the past 2 weeks (lead-acids self discharge)
- replacement tires, because the rubber compound ages and dries out, especially if you don't use it.
- bi-annual smog checks, even if you don't drive it much, and potentially an ICE vehicle ban sometime after 2035 (New Jersey follows CARB, so new ICE vehicles are already banned by then)
- oil-changes every year (at minimum).
Those are all costs just to OWN the vehicle, not operate it. Cars are not trophies, they perform a function. And if you don't use it, then the cost of maintenance becomes a burden. Plus your vehicle continues to depreciate, so you're losing the used-vehicle value, the longer you keep it.
Once its utility is diminished by the cost to operate it (because fuel WILL get more expensive as the demand and supply dwindles), you'll reach your trade-in way point.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Interesting thought experiment.
Your relatively new car should have low maintenance cost but high fuel cost. How many miles do you drive each year?
A Jeep at 20 mpg and 12,000 miles and $4/gal is $2400 for gas. EV electricity cost would be about $600 so save you $1800/year.
Maintenance for an EV is essentially $0. (Tire cost is the same for both)
Maintenance for the Jeep should be just lube, oil, filters about $500/yr.
So EV saves $500+$1800= $2300/yr
As the Jeep gets older it will need more maintenance. "Tune-up", brakes as regular maintenance but once over 100,000 miles other things will start failing.
The EV doesn't need any maintenance (not even brakes) and should go for several hundred thousand miles at a minimum.
These costs might be bearable now but will only get worse as time goes on.
At some point it will be worth it to dump the Jeep and get an EV. Used ICE vehicles will lose value rapidly. EVs hold their value well.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I should point out that most industrialized countries have banned new ICE car sales by 2035.Well, I guess that settles it. You found a chart that shows 100% EV new car sales by 2035, so I guess that proves it. LOL
But hey, your very own graph shows 50% just before 2025, so don't shortchange yourself.
Boeing and the US Air Force have already qualified carbon neutral Bio Fuels for use in current Jet aircraft but they aren’t used because they cost more. An example of where a carbon tax would help move things along but no political will.
You would be surprised, though. People keep using old, inefficient refrigerators in the garage despite the power company telling them it is a bad idea.
In the US at least, transportation is 67% of oil use. I found a number of 50% for global "road" use.
So transportation would include aviation - which is 8% of global use and ships which is 4% of global use.
One number is global and one US but they come out pretty close and if you put rail at 5% (admittedly a very high guess), then global is essentially the same as the US. Guess what - rail is easy.
You can't just look at EV's (and thus look at personal transportation). There are other transitions off of oil. The use for electricity generation will decline and certainly the use for residential heating will decline also. Houses last a long time of course but financially it is a pretty bad idea to use oil and government will gradually push those folks over the edge with incentives. This could be done easy in a decade.
You could counter that electricity generation and heating homes only adds up to 5% of oil use - sure but it is an even easier 5% than personal transportation.
Trucks will go EV. Short haul is just so easy and financially ready. Things like mail trucks. Buses. Garbage trucks. Some of these are easier to go to NG and many already are - but that isn't oil. Long haul trucks can certainly go EV but it may take a bit more time. And a lot of these things last 30 years but not 50-100.
You might send your friend Upton Sinclair's works. His famous quote appears to be mostly spoken when he ran for governor - I couldn't find where he wrote it down but he apparently did. But it was not in The Jungle.
You could ask your friend how much the land in the 10 miles outside the refinery would go up in value after it is dismantled. And the health care dollars avoided by the people currently living there (and maybe 50 miles). And then how much money would be saved by not paying his salary. And then ask when the last time a new refinery was built in the US despite no specific governmental restrictions on it.
We all have differing ideas about the timeline of the transition. EVs could be 50% of new sales by 2026 or 2030 and that would still mean 20 more years of using gasoline for transport. But consider how many people don't have any idea what can happen in 20 years. Things that couldn't be imagined or predicted. People aren't great at seeing big picture and changes coming (most people). Certainly, people are influenced by the people around them. Working in a refinery would be one environment where it is very self-serving to think the transition will be slow.
Similarly, listening to Tony Seba all day might bias people the other direction. We still quote Upton Sinclair 100 years later.
So transportation would include aviation - which is 8% of global use and ships which is 4% of global use.
One number is global and one US but they come out pretty close and if you put rail at 5% (admittedly a very high guess), then global is essentially the same as the US. Guess what - rail is easy.
You can't just look at EV's (and thus look at personal transportation). There are other transitions off of oil. The use for electricity generation will decline and certainly the use for residential heating will decline also. Houses last a long time of course but financially it is a pretty bad idea to use oil and government will gradually push those folks over the edge with incentives. This could be done easy in a decade.
You could counter that electricity generation and heating homes only adds up to 5% of oil use - sure but it is an even easier 5% than personal transportation.
Trucks will go EV. Short haul is just so easy and financially ready. Things like mail trucks. Buses. Garbage trucks. Some of these are easier to go to NG and many already are - but that isn't oil. Long haul trucks can certainly go EV but it may take a bit more time. And a lot of these things last 30 years but not 50-100.
You might send your friend Upton Sinclair's works. His famous quote appears to be mostly spoken when he ran for governor - I couldn't find where he wrote it down but he apparently did. But it was not in The Jungle.
You could ask your friend how much the land in the 10 miles outside the refinery would go up in value after it is dismantled. And the health care dollars avoided by the people currently living there (and maybe 50 miles). And then how much money would be saved by not paying his salary. And then ask when the last time a new refinery was built in the US despite no specific governmental restrictions on it.
We all have differing ideas about the timeline of the transition. EVs could be 50% of new sales by 2026 or 2030 and that would still mean 20 more years of using gasoline for transport. But consider how many people don't have any idea what can happen in 20 years. Things that couldn't be imagined or predicted. People aren't great at seeing big picture and changes coming (most people). Certainly, people are influenced by the people around them. Working in a refinery would be one environment where it is very self-serving to think the transition will be slow.
Similarly, listening to Tony Seba all day might bias people the other direction. We still quote Upton Sinclair 100 years later.
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I think a lot of Tesla owners who claim owning an EV such as a Tesla believe they are cheaper to run over a number of years compared to your Jeep or other ICE. I do agree with them up to a certain point, especially when comparing to unreliable vehicle's. But when you compare Tesla Insurance costs, HVAC/compressor/12v,other failures after warranty that cost is pretty substantial. I’ve owned mostly Land Cruisers and my maintenance costs over 10yrs is very low. For instance, my previous 2016 200 series had 168k miles on it and the only cost to me were…gas(weekly) oil,filters(every 10k) all fluid is flushed/replaced(x2) and three sets of brake pads($250x3sets), one set of spark plugs replaced, so basically typical maintenance. Total cost was nothing significant and I guarantee overall cost is still much lower then installing/buying a Tesla Wall connector(just installed), mobile connector, Insurance, premium yearly connection, no spare tire(need to purchase), extended warranty(not needed for my Cruiser). I am still buying an MX for the convenience of fueling up at home and for the mundane tasks my Heritage Cruiser is wasted on. I can almost guarantee it will outlast any current EV over a 20yr period with much lower costs to my wallet based on my experience with them. If you can afford to have a Tesla along side a gasser, I have a strong feeling the EV will be mileage eater while the gasser is used for much less overtime. That’s my plan and my LC will be the bad weather, overland vehicle it’s meant to be.
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That's kind of the point isn't it? When "typical maintenance" becomes a chore just for the sake of owning a "just-in-case" vehicle, is it still typical? You haven't owned your Tesla for very long yet I assume?
I haven't had an oil change, nor smog check done in over 5 years (that's when I sold my minivan that was driven only 2000 miles that year).
mspohr
Well-Known Member
My first Model S. 100,000 miles. Only repair and maintenance was $212 plus tires. Insurance was cheaper than ICE it replaced. Saved $15,000 on fuel cost.
I ordered the MX but decided to cancel and wait a little bit for the X to get some HW updates since this will be my first EV. I figured waiting to order in October should provide enough to get the HW4 and upgraded cameras for certain. I’m absolutely looking forward to getting my MX. Jus had the Tesla wall connector installed the other day on a 60A, floor mats and mobile connector, pucks sitting here before the X arrives.
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