Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[MontyFloyd]

Anyone rethinking their timeline given California's 2035 gas powered ban which is likely to be considered by at least 12 more states?

Does not prohibit registering gas cars purchased in other states, nor used cars.
Easy to work around.

Nope. Supply constraints are the problem, especially given that major European markets are going even faster.

What constraint?
So far battery suppliers are managing to keep up with demand. The challenge is more in the IC department due to extreme complexity, but the recent CHIP bill will turn that around in about 3~5 years.

WW2 America produced one 4 engine bomber per hour, and 2 bulk transport ships per day. US is more than able to do that again.

 

[h2ofun]

Anyone rethinking their timeline given California's 2035 gas powered ban which is likely to be considered by at least 12 more states?

nope, no ev for me

 

[SDRick]

nope, no ev for me

I guess that puts you in the other 50%.

It looks like you have solar and EV chargers, why no EV for thee?

 

[h2ofun]

I guess that puts you in the other 50%.

It looks like you have solar and EV chargers, why no EV for thee?

I have 5 ev charging stations.

Why no EV, because if makes not sense money wise, and trust me, I have tried!!!!!!

 

[SDRick]

How does 5 EV chargers make financial sense but not one EV?

 

[Mengy]

I have 5 ev charging stations.

Why no EV, because if makes not sense money wise, and trust me, I have tried!!!!!!

Why would you install five EV chargers if you didn't own an EV? THAT does not make money sense...

 

[h2ofun]

Why would you install five EV chargers if you didn't own an EV? THAT does not make money sense...

Yep, makes no sense for me now, or maybe ever. But, may add to my resale value. I charge friends who visit me with their EV. And, I needed to do all the sheet rock cutting before I completed my garage with dry wall taping, muding, painting and then ceiling racks. We all spend our money differently. Just like I put on 30Kw of solar panels, and 5 tesla batteries, which make no sense, I do try to future proof my house. I LOVE having my 90 solar panels and a 70 degree house in this heat wave and ZERO energy bill all year long.

 

[Mengy]

Yep, makes no sense for me now, or maybe ever. But, may add to my resale value. I charge friends who visit me with their EV. And, I needed to do all the sheet rock cutting before I completed my garage with dry wall taping, muding, painting and then ceiling racks. We all spend our money differently. Just like I put on 30Kw of solar panels, and 5 tesla batteries, which make no sense, I do try to future proof my house. I LOVE having my 90 solar panels and a 70 degree house in this heat wave and ZERO energy bill all year long.

Sure I agree completely with the solar, power walls, and resale value, but with all of that installed to your house, how could an EV NOT make financial sense for you? That doesn't add up for me....

 

[h2ofun]

Sure I agree completely with the solar, power walls, and resale value, but with all of that installed to your house, how could an EV NOT make financial sense for you? That doesn't add up for me....

Lets see. I do not drive a lot of miles. I need to haul lots of grandkids. Take long trips to Disneyland. Need to haul stuff in the back, like I do with
my mini van. No one has ever come up with numbers that make sense, just that I would help save the world.

So, I drive 500 miles a month, give me an roi

And have you read the article in Europe I believe it now costs MORE to drive an ev vs ice because of the HUGE increase in electricity!

Again, if an EV works for someone, great. Just DO NOT try to force me that I have to have one! Currently for me, makes no sense, and it seems, no matter how I say it, folks just do not care or understand, it is not for us, now. But I am ready if someone gives me a deal I cannot pass up

 

[DrGriz]

Lets see. I do not drive a lot of miles. I need to haul lots of grandkids. Take long trips to Disneyland. Need to haul stuff in the back, like I do with
my mini van. No one has ever come up with numbers that make sense, just that I would help save the world.

So, I drive 500 miles a month, give me an roi

And have you read the article in Europe I believe it now costs MORE to drive an ev vs ice because of the HUGE increase in electricity!

Again, if an EV works for someone, great. Just DO NOT try to force me that I have to have one! Currently for me, makes no sense, and it seems, no matter how I say it, folks just do not care or understand, it is not for us, now. But I am ready if someone gives me a deal I cannot pass up

There aren't enough EVs in the world (nor the materials to make them) if everyone wanted one right now. So it's fine that everyone doesn't.

 

[ThomasD]

How much of The Green New Deal will we be able to implement by 2029?
The Green New Deal Resolution lays out the goals and projects for a ten-year national mobilization to:

• build resiliency against climate change-related disasters;
• repair and upgrade U.S. infrastructure;
• meet 100 percent of our power demand through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources;
• build or upgrade to energy-efficient, distributed and “smart” power grids;
• upgrade all existing U.S. buildings and build new buildings, to achieve maximum energy efficiency;
• spur massive growth in clean U.S. manufacturing and remove pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from manufacturing and industry;
• work with farmers and ranchers to remove pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector;
• overhaul U.S. transportation systems;
• remove greenhouse gases and reduce pollution, including by restoring our natural ecosystems through proven low-tech solutions;
• restore and protect threatened, endangered, and fragile ecosystems;
• clean up existing hazardous waste and abandoned sites;
• make the United States the international leader on climate action and help other countries achieve a Green New Deal

The Green New Deal outlines the principles and requirements to guide this mobilization, including ensuring democratic processes and a fair and just transition for all workers. It also includes the goals of guaranteeing that all members of society can have a job with a family-sustaining wage and are provided with high-quality health care; affordable, safe, and adequate housing; economic security; and access to a clean environment.

 

[Graham J]

New research article:

EV Adoption, Trends & Statistics in the US

How is electric car adoption accelerating in the US?

www.recurrentauto.com

 

[cwerdna]

Anyway, back to the point in this thread. What is your 2030 prediction and why do you think that will be ?

Don't know, but for sure it will be under 50%. I doubt it'll be even 40%. Unclear, if it can reach even 35%. Without graphing or doing a bunch of research and calculations, maybe we can hit 25 to 34%?

I still stand by my vote of after 2040.

 

[SDRick]

It's interesting to watch the adoption and predict where it may land. I would be curious to know what calculations were made by the handful of folks who voted 50% new car sales in the next few years?

 

[GSP]

I would be more interested about a pool estimating when ICE vehicles will be completely extinct.

Or would this even occur? I wonder if some extreme cold weather, petrol car will still be the best solution and will not disappear?

People still ride horses, and race them.

GSP

 

[henderrj]

I'm afraid I gave up after the first page and just jumped here.

I took the question to mean "when will half of the cars being sold be battery electric vehicles?" I think 5 to 6 years from now.

The issue is entirely batteries. How fast can we make them? I moved to a very conservative state, and run amongst a pretty conservative crowd, and almost all of them expect to be buying an electric vehicle in the next 5 years. The only thing that stops people is money. If they have it, they're looking at an electric vehicle now.

Sure, 10% are Luddites. They'll change when you pry the gas pump handle from their cold dead hands. But most people are very open to the new technology.

And that's the point. The battery electric vehicle is simply technologically Superior. Once the long-term cost comparisons become common, people won't have such a hard time paying more. Also, the banks won't have such a hard time making long-term loans, keeping the payments down. Sure, we'd love for people to be changing to electric vehicles because they want to help the environment. But the honest truth is, it's that they are superior vehicles - that will drive most people to them.

The real question, I believe, isn't "how fast will people adopt electric vehicles?" But "how fast can we make them?" And the bottleneck is 100% the battery. Solve that, and the whole world goes electric.

Then again, what do I know?

 

[h2ofun]

I'm afraid I gave up after the first page and just jumped here.

I took the question to mean "when will half of the cars being sold be battery electric vehicles?" I think 5 to 6 years from now.

The issue is entirely batteries. How fast can we make them? I moved to a very conservative state, and run amongst a pretty conservative crowd, and almost all of them expect to be buying an electric vehicle in the next 5 years. The only thing that stops people is money. If they have it, they're looking at an electric vehicle now.

Sure, 10% are Luddites. They'll change when you pry the gas pump handle from their cold dead hands. But most people are very open to the new technology.

And that's the point. The battery electric vehicle is simply technologically Superior. Once the long-term cost comparisons become common, people won't have such a hard time paying more. Also, the banks won't have such a hard time making long-term loans, keeping the payments down. Sure, we'd love for people to be changing to electric vehicles because they want to help the environment. But the honest truth is, it's that they are superior vehicles - that will drive most people to them.

The real question, I believe, isn't "how fast will people adopt electric vehicles?" But "how fast can we make them?" And the bottleneck is 100% the battery. Solve that, and the whole world goes electric.

Then again, what do I know?

Unless one gave it to me free, even though I could afford, I have free charging, I have zero interest.

 

[Mengy]

Unless one gave it to me free, even though I could afford, I have free charging, I have zero interest.

Why do you have zero interest?


After owning my MY5LR for a year I'll never buy an ICE vehicle again. I hate driving ICE now, it just feels like antiquated tech to me. My girlfriend, brother, and some friends thought I was crazy to buy an EV but now after they've all driven my car they were near instantly convinced. Seems like everyone I know who actually drives an EV comes away wanting an EV...

 

[henderrj]

Why do you have zero interest?


After owning my MY5LR for a year I'll never buy an ICE vehicle again. I hate driving ICE now, it just feels like antiquated tech to me. My girlfriend, brother, and some friends thought I was crazy to buy an EV but now after they've all driven my car they were near instantly convinced. Seems like everyone I know who actually drives an EV comes away wanting an EV...

And why are you on to Tesla motors club site with thousands of comments?

 

[h2ofun]

Why do you have zero interest?


After owning my MY5LR for a year I'll never buy an ICE vehicle again. I hate driving ICE now, it just feels like antiquated tech to me. My girlfriend, brother, and some friends thought I was crazy to buy an EV but now after they've all driven my car they were near instantly convinced. Seems like everyone I know who actually drives an EV comes away wanting an EV...

You and I can sit at my house together. Each of us has to take 8 people, and all the luggage, and drive 500 miles and lets see who gets there first.