Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours

[cwerdna]

Way too high within 24 hours. Since polls were mentioned, how about one at MNL like this?
Are you planning to reserve Tesla Model 3 ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum

My answer and explanation were at Are you planning to reserve Tesla Model 3 ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum

FWIW, I've been very busy at work but from talking to two people who seem like to talk about/bring up Tesla a lot, I'd asked them, if they're going to reserve one on March 31st. Both said no. Go figure. (They also don't drive EVs nor PHEVs nor even a non-plugin hybrid.)

 

[houdini]

Nice math. Another simple method that I realized is that in Tesla's history they always seem to be at one years worth of sales for the vehicle at the time the first production car is delivered to a customer.

So my WAG for day 1 is 50K+. Remember that Tesla Energy got 35K reservations in one night. No money down was needed there though.

There will be 100K+ reservations after the first month.

There will be 350K+ reservations by the end of the year.

I feel pretty confident in my personal WAG estimations.

There were lots of people with solar panels and no batteries though, so an existing system that could benefit, no money down etc. Car buyers will pretty much already have a car.

I reckon 50K by the end of the first week and will sit there for many months, maybe 18 months. As we have more visibility over production line progress, maybe a car launch event with test drives for reservation holders etc they numbers might spike up a bit but I think we're talking when the production vehicles start rolling off the line at the rate of 1000 a week then finally the 100K orders will come in.

The EV market is still a very small market worldwide.

 

[MikeC]

For comparison, BMW sold about 300k 3 series in Europe and the US in 2015 (evenly split at ~150k each). That was an entire year, with cars actually available and delivered - of the most popular premium/luxury sedan in the world.

I'm all for the Model 3 in every way. I hope Tesla kills it and they sell millions of them. There's undoubtedly pent up demand. But the idea of 100k reservations, at $1000 a pop, in 24 hours, for a car that won't be delivered for ~2 years, is the sort of absurdity that only seems realistic on car forums.

You can't compare demand for a car that has been widely available for many years with demand for reservations for a car that hasn't come out yet with insane pent-up demand as well as an expiring tax credit. $1000 a pop for a reservation - which could be worth $7500 in 2 years - is obviously more affordable than $35,000 for a car.

So not all resevations will convert to sales, but also don't forget what Model S did to the S-class and the others in its class.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I reckon 50K by the end of the first week and will sit there for many months, maybe 18 months. As we have more visibility over production line progress, maybe a car launch event with test drives for reservation holders etc they numbers might spike up a bit but I think we're talking when the production vehicles start rolling off the line at the rate of 1000 a week then finally the 100K orders will come in.

The EV market is still a very small market worldwide.

There's no such thing as an "EV market". That is a fallacy put forward by the EV doubters. The Model S proved that if a car is compelling, it will sell, regardless of the driveline.

In all probability, the Model 3 will be compelling, and people will reserve it in huge numbers. I would expect 10k reservations in Norway alone, before production starts. Maybe even 20k.

 

[cwerdna]

You can't compare demand for a car that has been widely available for many years with demand for reservations for a car that hasn't come out yet with insane pent-up demand as well as an expiring tax credit. $1000 a pop for a reservation - which could be worth $7500 in 2 years - is obviously more affordable than $35,000 for a car.

So not all resevations will convert to sales, but also don't forget what Model S did to the S-class and the others in its class.

Yeah, but what % of people who pay the $1K to reserve will end up opting for one of the less well-equipped units, which might mean the $7500 tax credit hits the phase out periods and thus be smaller or $0?

Tesla is not the only one who has plans to introduce relatively long range (e.g. 200+ miles) by the time the first Model 3's become available. Chevy claims their Bolt will be out by end of 2016. There is a next-gen Leaf coming sometime. I'm sure there are others.

There's no such thing as an "EV market". That is a fallacy put forward by the EV doubters. The Model S proved that if a car is compelling, it will sell, regardless of the driveline.

Sure there is. It's huge in your country due to many reasons (benefits/incentives for EVs only, high gas prices, etc.)

In the US, it's pretty darn small. Per February 2016 Dashboard - HybridCars.com, battery electric take-rate was 0.33% in Feb 2016 or ~4,424 units out of 1.33 million autos sold that month. Look at the best selling EVs vs. February 2016 YTD U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 274 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR.

I was in Japan for vacation late last year. I saw virtually no EVs there, despite it being supposedly a strong EV market.

I posted this in another forum while there and after I returned:
"In my time here so far, I've only seen 2 Leafs. I did also see an electric kei van. It said Mitsubishi iMiev on the side + some other stuff. It was boxy and looked nothing like the clown car iMiev I'm familiar with.

I've seen no other EVs that I'm aware of. There are plenty of Gen 3 Prius and Prius c (Aqua here) and LOTS of kei cars (and kei vans and trucks), but virtually no EVs nor PHEVs that I know of.

Did see a huge sign on a parking garage stating there's EV quick charging there.

Oh... I guess there's an exception. In 2 hotels I've stayed at, on the building map of the rooms vs. elevator vs. fire escapes, they seem to use the abbreviation "EV" for elevator. That is technically correct, but not what I had in mind."

"While in Japan, parked on the street, I did see either a ICE Mitsubishi i (Mitsubishi i - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) or i-Miev. Not sure which it was. I looked around but didn't snap pictures, I don't think. (smacks head)

At Tokyo Motor Show, there seemed to be a lot more emphasis (as in displays/booths) on hydrogen FCEVs and their fueling infrastructure than anything EV/PHEV related. Honda had at least a 2nd booth showing their next gen Clarity FCX. At that booth and/or others, there was companies showing their hydrogen fueling stations."

I drive a pure BEV. It's been my daily driver since end of July 2013. Am I an EV doubter? Hmmmm.. not really. Enthusiast? Yes. Realist? Yes.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yeah, but what % of people who pay the $1K to reserve will end up opting for one of the less well-equipped units, which might mean the $7500 tax credit hits the phase out periods and thus be smaller or $0?

Tesla is not the only one who has plans to introduce relatively long range (e.g. 200+ miles) by the time the first Model 3's become available. Chevy claims their Bolt will be out by end of 2016. There is a next-gen Leaf coming sometime. I'm sure there are others.

All the EV "competitors" kinda suck. They don't have supercharging, they don't go 0-60 in 3-4 seconds, they don't have a huge touchscreen and all sorts of connectivity, etc.

Sure there is. It's huge in your country due to many reasons (benefits/incentives for EVs only, high gas prices, etc.)

In the US, it's pretty darn small. Per February 2016 Dashboard - HybridCars.com, battery electric take-rate was 0.33% in Feb 2016 or ~4,424 units out of 1.33 million autos sold that month. Look at the best selling EVs vs. February 2016 YTD U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 274 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR.

I drive a pure BEV. It's been my daily driver since end of July 2013. Am I an EV doubter? Hmmmm.. not really. Enthusiast? Yes. Realist? Yes.

Look at this overview: #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)

It's not as if the Model S exists in it's own little bubble of the market. It is in the same market as all the competitors, and I'm talking about *ICE* competitors. People who are constantly announcing the next Tesla-killer are missing the point, whether they are talking about the i3, the Bolt, the Leaf, etc. The Model 3 competition is as the article says, BMW 3-series/5-series, Audi A3/A4/A6, Mercedes A-Class/B-Class/C-Class, etc. How many million cars per year are we talking about in this market segment, and why wouldn't Tesla take a nice slice of this market?

 

[Laserbrain]

Too optimistic?

This.

You heard it here first

 

[cwerdna]

All the EV "competitors" kinda suck. They don't have supercharging, they don't go 0-60 in 3-4 seconds, they don't have a huge touchscreen and all sorts of connectivity, etc.

Will the Model 3? The world's best selling EV is the Leaf. The EV w/the highest installed base in the US is the Leaf.

The Model S starting price is roughly double or more what most other BEVs cost. It kinda "helps" that Tesla bleeding $ all over the place, having lost over net $2 billion since it's been publicly reporting financials. As I've posted many time elsewhere before, as a Car and Driver column once stated, any car company can build a great car given a huge cost/budget, but when it has to be competitive and also be profitable, eventually, so there are compromises. (e.g. you can't sell a $100K Nissan Versa or a $10K Lamborghini). One has to wonder about the sustainability of what Tesla's doing. The prices they're charging are huge partly due to the big battery and performance, yet they've lost over $2 billion.

Look at this overview: #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)

It's not as if the Model S exists in it's own little bubble of the market. It is in the same market as all the competitors, and I'm talking about *ICE* competitors. People who are constantly announcing the next Tesla-killer are missing the point, whether they are talking about the i3, the Bolt, the Leaf, etc. The Model 3 competition is as the article says, BMW 3-series/5-series, Audi A3/A4/A6, Mercedes A-Class/B-Class/C-Class, etc. How many million cars per year are we talking about in this market segment, and why wouldn't Tesla take a nice slice of this market?

In the US, the Audis, Mercedes (we don't have the A-Class here and we only have the B-Class ED) and BMWs do not sell in very large numbers vs. the rest of the market.

For instance, what you point to had the Mercedes S-Class doing 25.2K units in the US in 2014 and 21.9K in 2015. That's small in the US scheme of things. See 2015 Year End U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 288 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR. The best selling vehicle in the US, the Ford F-Series truck did 780K units in 2015. The best selling car, the Camry did 429K units in 2015. In Dec 2015, Toyota sold ~70% more Camrys in that month than Mercedes did of S-Class for the whole year.

Look at 3-series and 4-series numbers there and compare to top sellers in that chart.

See USA Auto Sales Brand Rankings - 2015 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR for brand sales.

 

[Breezy]

50,000 in the first week, 60,000 in the first month, 70,000 in the first year (net of cancellations).

There's a natural limit to the number of reservations. As the number of reservations grows, the motivation to reserve lessens. There's no incentive to reserve if you're going to be #200,000 in line, especially when people can cut in front of you by ordering a highly-optioned car.

 

[Model 3]

There's no such thing as an "EV market".

I mostly agree, but not completely. Yes, the EV's goes into the existing car markets, like "Premium sedan" or "subcompact hatchback" or "small SUV". But it is also a part of the marked that will not buy an EV no matter how compelling it is, and there is a part of the marked that will only consider an EV. I have my eyes on the Model 3, but I would not in any way consider ANY other "premium" (or "low end premium") car at all (I don't even like BMW/Audi ). I am thinking about the TM3 despite it been a (low end) premium class sedan. And I will be picking between TM3, the Bolt/Ampera-e and the potential LeafNG if the rumors are correct, even if this three cars probably will be in tree different car markets.

So I don't think it is so easy just to say there is - or is not - an "EV market". It is and is not

 

[Yggdrasill]

Will the Model 3? The world's best selling EV is the Leaf. The EV w/the highest installed base in the US is the Leaf.

The Model S starting price is roughly double or more what most other BEVs cost. It kinda "helps" that Tesla bleeding $ all over the place, having lost over net $2 billion since it's been publicly reporting financials. As I've posted many time elsewhere before, as a Car and Driver column once stated, any car company can build a great car given a huge cost/budget, but when it has to be competitive and also be profitable, eventually, so there are compromises. (e.g. you can't sell a $100K Nissan Versa or a $10K Lamborghini). One has to wonder about the sustainability of what Tesla's doing. The prices they're charging are huge partly due to the big battery and performance, yet they've lost over $2 billion.

They haven't lost 2 billion, they've invested 2 billion. It takes time and money to scale up production to a sustainable level. You also need several vehicles to get a sufficent customer base, something that takes a lot of engineering and design resources.

In the US, the Audis, Mercedes (we don't have the A-Class here and we only have the B-Class ED) and BMWs do not sell in very large numbers vs. the rest of the market.

For instance, what you point to had the Mercedes S-Class doing 25.2K units in the US in 2014 and 21.9K in 2015. That's small in the US scheme of things. See 2015 Year End U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 288 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR. The best selling vehicle in the US, the Ford F-Series truck did 780K units in 2015. The best selling car, the Camry did 429K units in 2015. In Dec 2015, Toyota sold ~70% more Camrys in that month than Mercedes did of S-Class for the whole year.

Look at 3-series and 4-series numbers there and compare to top sellers in that chart.

See USA Auto Sales Brand Rankings - 2015 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR for brand sales.

I don't see the problem. Add up the following:

BMW 3-series: 94,000
BMW 4-series: 46,000
BMW 5-series: 44,000
Audi A3: 36,000
Audi A4: 31,000
Audi A5: 13,000
Audi A6: 23,000
Mercedes C-class: 86,000
Lexus IS: 47,000
Lexus ES: 65,000
Lexus GS: 23,000

These are some of the competitors, and it adds up to about 508,000 cars per year. Adding in some of the other competitors, you're probably looking at around 750,000 cars per year. In 2020, the number of Model 3 produced should be somewhere around 350,000 per year. (With 150,000 Model S/X.) A little over a third will probably need to be sold in the US, so maybe 125,000 cars per year. (With one third in Europe and one third in Asia.) That means that Tesla needs to steal around 15% of the sales from it's competitors. Is that unrealistic? I would say no, given Tesla's history of having done so with the Model S.

 

[McHoffa]

But no, I don't agree. I know of three current owners, and none of them will be putting down a deposit. Anecdotes, sure, but why would someone who can readily afford a $100k car be interested in a ride for $35k. I don't see it, unless they are buying presents for their grandkids.

You're right, at least for me. If I could afford an S/X, I would have already one, and wouldn't be interested in the 3 unless I just felt the S was too big. Now If I were in the position of just barely affording the S and had a base model, I might be interested in upgrading to a fully loaded 3.

 

[cwerdna]

They haven't lost 2 billion, they've invested 2 billion. It takes time and money to scale up production to a sustainable level. You also need several vehicles to get a sufficent customer base, something that takes a lot of engineering and design resources.

I posted at JB Straubel- Model 3 will be mostly NEW technology when they hit $1.8 billion in accumulated losses. There's no way you can characterize all of that loss as "investment". You can look at their their most recent SEC filings at Tesla Motors - Annual Report to get an idea where the money is going.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Way too high within 24 hours. Since polls were mentioned, how about one at MNL like this?
Are you planning to reserve Tesla Model 3 ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum

My answer and explanation were at Are you planning to reserve Tesla Model 3 ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum

FWIW, I've been very busy at work but from talking to two people who seem like to talk about/bring up Tesla a lot, I'd asked them, if they're going to reserve one on March 31st. Both said no. Go figure. (They also don't drive EVs nor PHEVs nor even a non-plugin hybrid.)

Only 35% of people on a Nissan forum are in the "won't reserve" camp? That's a surprisingly low number. It will be very interesting to see what the actual number is, assuming it's announced.

 

[EinSV]

Way too high within 24 hours. Since polls were mentioned, how about one at MNL like this?
Are you planning to reserve Tesla Model 3 ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum

My answer and explanation were at Are you planning to reserve Tesla Model 3 ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum

FWIW, I've been very busy at work but from talking to two people who seem like to talk about/bring up Tesla a lot, I'd asked them, if they're going to reserve one on March 31st. Both said no. Go figure. (They also don't drive EVs nor PHEVs nor even a non-plugin hybrid.)

I do not think that poll says what you think it says.

As of the time of this posting 50% of the people taking the poll on the Nissan Leaf forum said they planned to reserve a Model 3 either immediately or later. Of those, a whopping 39% plan to reserve immediately, either at the store or online. Another 16% were "maybes" on the question of whether to reserve.

Only 34% said they did not plan to reserve. Presumably they will just wait until the Model 3 is introduced before buying it : )

Not a very scientific poll, granted. But it looks pretty darn good for off-the-hook Model 3 reservations.

Edit: LargeHamCollider -- just saw your post but obviously I agree!

 

[eye.surgeon]

My guess is maybe 20,000 reservations in the first week.

 

[hcsharp]

You all are way underestimating. It will be well over 100k in 24 hrs. In the other thread on this subject I guessed about 300k.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't think so. I'm sure there's a lot of people interested, but putting down $1k is going to be a big deal for people at that end of the market. I suspect either damp squib or steady growth.

I'm reserving, but I'm pretty motivated about it, and I think people will take a more wait-and-see attitude.

 

[ucmndd]

You can't compare demand for a car that has been widely available for many years with demand for reservations for a car that hasn't come out yet with insane pent-up demand as well as an expiring tax credit. $1000 a pop for a reservation - which could be worth $7500 in 2 years - is obviously more affordable than $35,000 for a car.

So not all resevations will convert to sales, but also don't forget what Model S did to the S-class and the others in its class.

I think the main piece of contention here is the enthusiast-fueled speculation as to the degree of "insane pent-up demand". I simply see no evidence to suggest that there are 100k people out there at this moment with the means and motivation to give Tesla $1,000 each in the span of 24 hours, for the chance to buy a car in two years' time.

Whatever the number is, I'll be one of them - but I'll eat my foot if I'm keeping company with 100,000 of my closest friends in the first 24 hours.

 

[MikeC]

I think the main piece of contention here is the enthusiast-fueled speculation as to the degree of "insane pent-up demand". I simply see no evidence to suggest that there are 100k people out there at this moment with the means and motivation to give Tesla $1,000 each in the span of 24 hours, for the chance to buy a car in two years' time.

Whatever the number is, I'll be one of them - but I'll eat my foot if I'm keeping company with 100,000 of my closest friends in the first 24 hours.

And I'll be two of them. The bigger question to me is will they actually release the exact numbers for that time frame. We'll see next week!