Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours

[ArtC]

I'm a mom with a 2005 Toyota Highlander. Plan on saving it for the daughter, who should get her driver's license next year (summer). Don't know what I will do between her getting her license and me getting my Tesla. We may have to share the car for a while.

As a note, I love the S and X, but they are too pricey for me. I have been considering a Volt, but, I think 2 drive trains sound complicated, and, there is no AWD option, which I need in Colorado.

Elon tweeted that there will be an AWD option.

 

[hcsharp]

Elon tweeted that there will be an AWD option.

At least one of the cars at the event was Dual Motor (AWD).

 

[Breezy]

I have been considering a Volt, but, I think 2 drive trains sound complicated, and, there is no AWD option, which I need in Colorado.

It does sound complicated, but it's actually much simpler than a typical automatic transmission. It's not really two complete drivetrains since the drive unit, including the electric motors, takes the place of the transmission.

Anyway, enjoy the Model 3.

 

[ecarfan]

Yah - I'm thinking 300K by wednesday will be top out, basically.

Not going to "top out" at all: reservations will continue to grow, although slowly, until Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal sometime late 2017, at which point I think there will be another surge of reservations such that by the time production really starts going in 2018 Tesla could be sitting on well over half a million reservations for a car that few people have even sat in, much less driven. And unprecedented situation in automotive history.

That is why I expect Tesla will announce, before the end of 2017, a second production facility location and a second Gigafactory location (and I think they will be in the southeastern US). Because if they don't get started building those two locations soon they will be production constrained for a decade.

And all this without doing any conventional advertising. This is all blowing my mind, and I've been an enthusiastic Tesla optimist for over two years now. I never expected quite this level of demand for the 3.

TSLA is massively undervalued. Yes, I'm an investor and I'm long. Looking forward to sitting in my Model 3 hopefully before mid 2018.

 

[Weezer Fan]

It does sound complicated, but it's actually much simpler than a typical automatic transmission. It's not really two complete drivetrains since the drive unit, including the electric motors, takes the place of the transmission.

Anyway, enjoy the Model 3.

Good to know. Do you drive yours in snow?

 

[Bimbels]

Not going to "top out" at all: reservations will continue to grow, although slowly, until Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal sometime late 2017, at which point I think there will be another surge of reservations such that by the time production really starts going in 2018 Tesla could be sitting on well over half a million reservations for a car that few people have even sat in, much less driven. And unprecedented situation in automotive history.

That is why I expect Tesla will announce, before the end of 2017, a second production facility location and a second Gigafactory location (and I think they will be in the southeastern US). Because if they don't get started building those two locations soon they will be production constrained for a decade.

And all this without doing any conventional advertising. This is all blowing my mind, and I've been an enthusiastic Tesla optimist for over two years now. I never expected quite this level of demand for the 3.

TSLA is massively undervalued. Yes, I'm an investor and I'm long. Looking forward to sitting in my Model 3 hopefully before mid 2018.

Yeah...after Elon's Twitterstorm yesterday, I withdraw my 300K prediction. I imagine 500K+ by launch. At least. Whatever this Part 2 is might cause a real sh*tstorm.

 

[AlexT]

I'll throw in a prediction too. I'm estimating 350K by first week, and 850K+ by launch*, caused by steady stream of new reservations and a peak after "Part 2".

 

[Skotty]

The demand is impressive, but additional reservations will dry up at some point. There are only so many people who will reserve one. Reveal part 2 could spark another wave of reservations, though in smaller number. But what might be really exciting is when other people who don't normally consider reserving cars or buying electric start seeing these cars on the road after production starts. If it's as good as it looks like it might be, Tesla could really take off.

 

[Socom]

It's going to be quite exciting to see more Tesla owners on the road in the coming years, especially with how the reservation numbers are looking currently.

 

[Breezy]

Good to know. Do you drive yours in snow?

Sure do. I live in the land of lake-effect snow. We just got a few inches last night. It's all fairly flat here, though.

With winter tires, it's the best front-wheel-drive car I've driven. I prefer it to the 2008 Explorer I drive for work. Very stable. One of the benefits of an electric drivetrain is that the torque to the wheels can be rapidly varied, so traction control works very well.

 

[Tedkidd]

My wag...

5,000 sight unseen reservations.
2,000 employee reservations.
20,000 first 48 hours
30,000 first week
100,000 December 2017

I have trouble envisioning there being more reservations than the first year's production.

Ouch, did I get that wrong...

...should have bought more options!

 

[Yuri_G]

Reservations won't flat line or top out unless people start cancelling en masse. The rate at which the overall number increases will slow down, but it should keep going up. I'd guess it's around 350k by the end of Wednesday.

 

[Breezy]

Frankly, I don't think these reservation numbers make much sense in the longer term. I hope people aren't too disappointed if reservations actually decline by the time deliveries start.

The rate of reservations had declined from about 15,000 per hour to 1400 per hour as of the latest tweet. I expect it will become negative at some point in 2016.

I think a lot of people have been caught up in the moment here, and have a couple of years to have second thoughts.

I think reservations will eventually settle at whatever Tesla is projecting will be the first two years of production, say 70,000.

They'll be able to sell as many as they can build in any case.

 

[Clprenz]

Frankly, I don't think these reservation numbers make much sense in the longer term. I hope people aren't too disappointed if reservations actually decline by the time deliveries start.

The rate of reservations had declined from about 15,000 per hour to 1400 per hour as of the latest tweet. I expect it will become negative at some point in 2016.

I think a lot of people have been caught up in the moment here, and have a couple of years to have second thoughts.

I think reservations will eventually settle at whatever Tesla is projecting will be the first two years of production, say 70,000.

They'll be able to sell as many as they can build in any case.

if Tesla doesn't produce more than 3X that (210,000) in 2018 they will be in some real trouble. I would expect a run rate entering 2018 to be at least 2,500/week

 

[400ev]

I highly doubt Tesla will open another production plant or Giga factory any time soon. Remember they did not build the Fremont plant from scratch. It was taken over. They simply do not have the capital to build it from scratch. They're spending billions on the first giga factory alone and that should be enough to make all the batteries they need for the near future.
The Fremont plant has enough capacity for now, they're just not using all of it yet. If they can actually reach full 500k/ yr capacity of that plant within 2 - 3 years, I'd say that's pretty good. Once the first year Model 3's are sold, they'd generate a lot more cash to accelerate the production ramping.

 

[FlatSix911]

There will be plenty of idle factories that the Big 3 automakers would like to unload ...
Tesla received more than 325,000 Model 3 reservations after one week – $14B in “implied future sales”

 

[nativewolf]

There will be plenty of idle factories that the Big 3 automakers would like to unload ...
Tesla received more than 325,000 Model 3 reservations after one week – $14B in “implied future sales”

View attachment 171223

Maybe you are jesting, maybe not, but you are correct, plants all over the US that could be used.

 

[hcsharp]

$14B is an average selling price of $43k. They obviously won't sell very many at $35k, and a lot will sell at 50k or more. That gives you a clue that there will be expensive battery options, among other things.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't think so. I'm sure there's a lot of people interested, but putting down $1k is going to be a big deal for people at that end of the market. I suspect either damp squib or steady growth.

I'm reserving, but I'm pretty motivated about it, and I think people will take a more wait-and-see attitude.

Thanks for rating this post funny.

I've have never been more glad to be wrong. The numbers make me well up.

 

[Zaxxon]

I don't know about 24 hours, but it's clear to me that the total will far, far surpass [100k]. Take the X as a base: it took roughly 3 years to hit 30k reservations.

• Reservations were 5x as expensive.
• They represented intent to buy a car that was going to cost in excess of $70k. (about 2x the Model 3)
• Tesla was less well-known for most of that period. (Say an average of 1/2 as well-known as a from-my-rear-end estimate)

Using pseudo-math, that represents a 20x expected increase in M3 rate vs X rate (5*2*2). We have about 4/7 as long to accrue reservations (deliveries in about 2 years from first reservations vs 3.5 for the X). So again with pseudo-math:

30,000 * 20 * 4/7 = 342k+ expected reservations.

Who knows how accurate those guesstimates will prove to be, but my gut tells me they're conservative: the addressable market for vehicles doesn't increase linearly as price drops; the rate of increase is generally far in excess of linear.

OK, so I was close on the number. Just off on the time frame by... A lot.

A friend put his reservation in this afternoon, so we're still heading up.