No existing charger charges per kWh. They either charge a fixed fee or per minute.
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No existing charger charges per kWh. They either charge a fixed fee or per minute.
As usual this is being presented with the wrong voice. What Elon was saying is that the average price people would decide to pay would be $42,000. Those cars are already, in some sense, sold. He has no control over their final price, that is totally on the buyer. They also aren't likely to ask all 400,000 people to configure at the same time. So they can't optimize all the high optioned cars to the front.
Thank you kindly.
If somebody else decides to join the Supercharger network and have their cars use them, Tesla has to come up with some way to divide up the use and charge the other company, even if it continues to be free to Tesla owners.
ummgood
Member
What is the average price of the Model S models sold? Then given that maybe we could figure out maybe what options 42k might get you.
I think that EM said that the car company would pay Tesla, and having that company charge their customers, similarly to how Tesla charges (i.e. not piecemeal). Tesla would not be charging those customers directly.
Thank you kindly.
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The average price ranges from around $100K to $110K. The S90D with many extras is the average.
From the Model S order tracking spreadsheet, the breakdown of types is:
Q1 2016
70 - 13.6%
70D - 25.8%
85/90/85D/90D - 55.7%
P85D/P90D - 5.6%
People are going for the longest range cars with good performance, but not the top tier performance.
They still need to track usage, even if they aren't charging the end users directly.
John Beans
Member
Guess a percent that will just buy base $35K. Graph shows you average of everyone else. Based on Elon's $42K ASP comment and simple averages. Assumes he has a good gauge on costs/customers/margins.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Why is that if the power comes from solar? They'd probably need to track supercharger congestion to know when to expand the network.
melindav
☰ 2018
Only a small of the SCs are solar. Most come right from the local grid, so source will vary depending on the part of the country/world you are in.
ummgood
Member
Thanks! So given that Elon said that the average Model 3 would cost $42k I am guessing he used average configuration of the Model S to make an educated guess on what the average Model 3 buyer would configure...
I figured that I would configure a Model S and then 'assume' that I could get the same options on a Model 3 for 42k that would cost 100k on a Model S.
Here is what I was able to configure on a Model S for 100k.
Extended Range
Dual Motor
Metallic Paint
Leather Seats
Pano Roof
Auto Pilot
Premium Upgrades
I am guessing the same options on a model 3 will be in the ballpark of 42k. I am sure that some of these packages won't be as "luxury" for example premium upgrades might not have a power trunk but I would expect it to have the black headliner. I don't think this is too far fetched to predict in this way...
I think 42K may be the median once early adopter demand is satisfied, but the mean is considerably higher.
If Musk publically guessed at a high mean, the press will say that the M3 is not his promised $35K car.
If you recall, the price estimate for the Model S was wildly off. Anybody take delivery of a $60K Model S? Anybody? (Actually, I believe the original quote was "$55K - $60K")
Tesla announces the Model S: a $60k, all-electric, five passenger sports sedan
Tesla numbers always seem to be "dog" numbers. Time, cost, quantity.
I'll predict again. You won't see a Model 3 delivered below $55K before 2020, if at all.
melindav
☰ 2018
generally speaking, someone buying a Model S is not going to be as concerned with the bottom line as who will be buying the Model 3, so do think a good amount will be at the base price.
I 'predict' the price breakdown will be something like:
25% at or near 35,000
50% 36,000-47,000
20% 47,000-60,000
5% over 60,000
I 'predict' the price breakdown will be something like:
25% at or near 35,000
50% 36,000-47,000
20% 47,000-60,000
5% over 60,000
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
LOL. No way in hell you are getting the car with the options you listed at $42K.
Maybe EM knows that the M3 buyer is more budget conscious and won't option the cars as heavily as the Model S buyers who are typically much higher income.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Boy, I hope you're right!
I am thinking that all of the options you list will cost you more like 60K. At least that is what I am planning on.
Dan
M3 configuration is by date. You are saying that some buyers will be allowed to configure, but that their cars won't be built for literally years. That is not going to happen.
I do agree that low/no margins builds will be limited so that margins look acceptable each quarter. I also think that Tesla likely has no positive margin in the base car.
This can be resolved with a little bit of self driving capability. Maybe the car will automatically charge to something reasonable, like 90%, and then disconnect and move itself to a new parking spot if you're not around.
The benefit is that if you're on a road trip and pull over to eat, this will take care of disconnecting and moving your car around while you might be inside of a restaurant.
Edit: If you're talking about a liability from Tesla's perspective, and financially, then that's a different story and my post only intended to discuss a waiting time to charge.
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voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Different market. They are competing with entry level luxury cars that have great gas mileage from Mercedes, BMW and Audi.
You think they will ship the 400K pre orders if they can't deliver models at the promised $35K price? I don't.
With Model S they were selling to the very well heeled as well as those willing to take on the equivalent of a 2nd mortgage because they were on a religious crusade about EVs.
Now they are going after customers who have many other choices in this price range, not to mention that many seem to be coming from much more modest transportation and an optioned M3 is going to be a stretch for them, even with the tax credits.
I think Tesla will put a few must have options in such as AWD and mid range battery that will move the price up for many buyers but there is no way they will survive if they don't ship cars that cost less than 55K before 2020.
