I predict that Tesla's drive to be an industry leader, their focus on streamlining costs, and their confidence in their future scale will lead to "surprisingly affordable" prices—at least to this enthusiast audience—when they are revealed. This is, after all, a car primarily positioned as "the car for the mainstream" and not a continuation of prior premium positioning and modest production scale. Tesla will set prices like they have a 500K production rate and thus guarantee that they get there, a bit of a virtuous cycle. They will not exploit the early buyers and wait to lower prices when full production rate is achieved; this would predictably lead to ill will. Instead, they will price the same during the campaign to reach 500K. They will understand that as long as consumer interest is rabid, Wall Street will grumble but will forgive short-term impact on margins.
This will lead to a bit of an "options rush," especially as confidence grows in Tesla's ability to be able to time production to exploit the tax break. It will be like when you are in a restaurant and the manager gives you a price break on your meal and you bump up the tip you were planning to give your server; people will get a few more options than they normal would without the tax break.
I expect the second reveal to be pretty inspiring, leading to a "mini-panic" over buying enough options to ensure a good delivery date. I think the big demand will be "Can you tell us exactly which options will speed up or slow down our order?" Despite this, I think the base interior will be of such an appealing nature that most will very satisfied with it, and that "take rates" of any premium interior upgrade will be lower than for BMW's 3 Series luxury upgrade. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one sort of upgrade (random, but luxury strikes me as a valid candidate) lags a bit in terms of production validation or disproportionate "takt time" on the floor and actually might hurt delivery time.
I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla upgrades the standard conductors and electronics so that performance and Ludo are soft options once you have the correct motors, either base or upgraded (it's what I would do, less complexity and more common scale). Perhaps they'll even do away with having two different rear motors (one base and one performance), and just make "single or dual motor" the only hardware-based performance option. So you'd choose to move to dual motors, and then the performance upgrade(s) would be soft, just like the (surprisingly) recent 5K battery upgrade.
I predict a solid majority of reservations are for cars that will price out < ~ $40K. The nature of the mainstream demand curve.
Finally, I predict that a max perf 3 will be below $60K, but not surpass the P90D in 0-60 times.
