Not really, Tesla still has a relatively small footprint in terms of stores. Half of Tesla's sales in the US come from a single state. Definitely more room to grow demand for Model S.
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Not really, Tesla still has a relatively small footprint in terms of stores. Half of Tesla's sales in the US come from a single state. Definitely more room to grow demand for Model S.
You are assuming that it's possible for them to increase supply. Maybe they're constrained by inbound supply, eg. of battery cells, and not factory capacity.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Tesla factory runs TWO shifts during the week. This is very common knowledge folks. I'm referring to the general assembly line
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
chateauoaks
Member
Thanks for the info, FredTMC. I guess it wasn't common knowledge to me. I've tried to keep abreast of everything production related and never heard it specifically mentioned. I'd be keen on reading any links you may have discussing it. Thanks!
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
sure. No problem. Also, I think I've heard before that factory sometimes runs a shift on Saturday. Seems reasonable to me that this quarter is probably one of those times
FredTMC:
Thanks for the info! Do you know what the capacity is for the S/X line with 2-shift? Is it more than 2000 a week? According to this link: Teslas 2nd Production Line Capable Of Pumping Out 3,000 Tesla Per Week it is 3000 a week, but I never seen that number elsewhere.
electracity:
I think it is very likely demand will grow over 100 000 for S+X 2017 and 2018. It has been growing since 2012 and I don't see why it would stop. Most growth companies continue to grow for decades until their product gets replaced with something better. Batteries can be a bottleneck for sure. Cell production is suppose to be starting in 2017 in GF, but they will also have the stationary storage orders they need to fill.
Thanks for the info! Do you know what the capacity is for the S/X line with 2-shift? Is it more than 2000 a week? According to this link: Teslas 2nd Production Line Capable Of Pumping Out 3,000 Tesla Per Week it is 3000 a week, but I never seen that number elsewhere.
electracity:
I think it is very likely demand will grow over 100 000 for S+X 2017 and 2018. It has been growing since 2012 and I don't see why it would stop. Most growth companies continue to grow for decades until their product gets replaced with something better. Batteries can be a bottleneck for sure. Cell production is suppose to be starting in 2017 in GF, but they will also have the stationary storage orders they need to fill.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The original source has more information (not about the production capacity):
http://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=9778304
Benz
Active Member
Bumping this again now that the Model S estimated delivery has been pushed, possibly to help clear the long waiting list of Model X reservations. Looks like there is a not so small chance the S+X line will be exhausted already in 2016 
. Anyone got any new information about the way they can improve the production rate?
. Anyone got any new information about the way they can improve the production rate?
SebastianR
Active Member
Bumping this again now that the Model S estimated delivery has been pushed, possibly to help clear the long waiting list of Model X reservations. Looks like there is a not so small chance the S+X line will be exhausted already in 2016
I think a lot of that will get clearer after the next earnings call. I think the focus on the line alone is flat out irrelevant. Let's keep in mind that in the beginning of the Model S ramp-up process, at some point USB cables were the limiting factor, then there was a truck with supplies from Mexico stuck at the border, then they had to fly-in tyres from Europe, then there was the port strike etc.
Now we had seats etc.
If this thread is about production capacity, the line capacities might be a necessary condition but they are certainly not a sufficient condition.
I agree with what you wrote that current problems and short term production rate is not important. I also think we will get more information about it the next conference call.
The original question was - and I guess what the thread is about - how they can increase capacity for S+X. If there is significant investment needed todo so or not. This matters a lot for my models as I think they can reach a total demand of 200k for S+X as early as 2018. I think this question has been neglected for a while and focus has shifted (for good reasons) to model X launch, model 3 and gigafactory.
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dc_h
Active Member
Regarding the original question: Do we think Tesla could produce above 2400 if they continue to run the original line one with 1200 capacity and the new line two, with 2400 weekly capacity? My understanding is that line one will come down as line two hits full production, but could they try to catch up and produce most or only Model X on line two? Could they also move all of line one and the original paint system to Tilburg to reduce currency impact in Europe and reduce delivery lag? If they could reduce delivery times, seems like they could increase sales.
Did you actually mean 200k total demand in 2018 not just for S + X , but S + X + 3 ? They will surely have additional lines operating by 2018.
dc_h:
The capacity of the new S+X line is a not clearly stated so far. I have seen everything from 2000 to 3000 a week.
I would assume they are not going to use the old line at all for regular production, but I don't know. In general I think it would make more sense to duplicate the more modern line rather than keep running the old. The old can perhaps be used for prototypes like early Model 3. That is my uneducated guess.
Quant:
I think demand for S+X combined will hit 200k sometime in 2018 at the latest. I think we may already be at 100k demand per year so a 30%-40% growth per year I think is likely. Tesla's cars will get better compared to the competition because of Supercharger and other charging stations popping up, and more and more people will become aware of the cars. There is also cool technical things like Autopilot that will improve.
I think Model 3 reservations will be atleast 100k by 2018 (with it's own line of course).
If demand stays strong and growing and if they get a lot of reservations for Model 3 they should probably ideally start construction of GF2 in 2016-2017. Lots of investment needed
The capacity of the new S+X line is a not clearly stated so far. I have seen everything from 2000 to 3000 a week.
I would assume they are not going to use the old line at all for regular production, but I don't know. In general I think it would make more sense to duplicate the more modern line rather than keep running the old. The old can perhaps be used for prototypes like early Model 3. That is my uneducated guess.
Quant:
I think demand for S+X combined will hit 200k sometime in 2018 at the latest. I think we may already be at 100k demand per year so a 30%-40% growth per year I think is likely. Tesla's cars will get better compared to the competition because of Supercharger and other charging stations popping up, and more and more people will become aware of the cars. There is also cool technical things like Autopilot that will improve.
I think Model 3 reservations will be atleast 100k by 2018 (with it's own line of course).
If demand stays strong and growing and if they get a lot of reservations for Model 3 they should probably ideally start construction of GF2 in 2016-2017. Lots of investment needed
Yeah, but there is a difference between demand and production. The former does not translate to the latter without significant investments. S and X is the best way to get resources to do them.
dc_h:
The capacity of the new S+X line is a not clearly stated so far. I have seen everything from 2000 to 3000 a week.
I would assume they are not going to use the old line at all for regular production, but I don't know. In general I think it would make more sense to duplicate the more modern line rather than keep running the old. The old can perhaps be used for prototypes like early Model 3. That is my uneducated guess.
Quant:
I think demand for S+X combined will hit 200k sometime in 2018 at the latest. I think we may already be at 100k demand per year so a 30%-40% growth per year I think is likely. Tesla's cars will get better compared to the competition because of Supercharger and other charging stations popping up, and more and more people will become aware of the cars. There is also cool technical things like Autopilot that will improve.
I think Model 3 reservations will be atleast 100k by 2018 (with it's own line of course).
If demand stays strong and growing and if they get a lot of reservations for Model 3 they should probably ideally start construction of GF2 in 2016-2017. Lots of investment needed
Thanks, Lango.
I think you are right....in total......!
I believe S + X about 150 K max, and Model 3 reservations about 150 K by year end 2018. In terms of total production, that would require 300 k deliveries for the year...by Year end 2019.... Which is already a tall order.
That's true ! But, I would submit that it's more than just investments or resources.
I think experience with the production line, the sourcing of parts, the integration of all of that, the production and processes, quality and process control and the huge amount of iterative learning in all areas...from design on down...which cannot be done in 2-3 years...and requires many years..is all part of that. This is tough to do with high volumes.
I used to to drive mustangs and Toyota celicas in my 20's and then moved to Infinity ( 2 of them bought the same day ) in my early 30's and it was easy to tell how difficult it was to go from a mass manufacturer to an upscale, high quality manufacturer.
Then I moved to all MBenz's for the past 20 years and have been largely happy ( except when they bought Chrysler which was a monumental mistake ).
I think Tesla and Elon have followed the optimal strategy with low volumes before moving to high volumes...simply because that is the easiest and least risky strategy for an innovative technology company.
Essentially, the Model S and Model X owners will pay part of the cost for the Model 3 owners...just like the Mercedes S class and BMW 7 series owners fund part of the investment and technology costs for the BMW 1 and 3 series owners, and S class owners for the Mercedes C class owners.
All I am waiting for is Tesla to get over all the iterative learning and fine tuning and production processes and upscale quality control, because I have very little tolerance for any problems with my cars. I always sell or trade my MB's within 4 years .....and have never ever been stranded ever with a Mercedes.
I hope to move to a Teslas soon and never look back....because Mercedes innovations over the past 20 years have been very, very slow and very, very minor...mostly form, styling etc. They even got rid of the power assist closing doors on the S class that they had in the early 90's ....because of quality issues. Thankfully, I had it covered for a full replacement .....but the steering, turning radius, acceleration and traction control have all been great....
Quant:
Interesting story about past cars ownership. I think Tesla will have good quality for a premium brand, but they might not reach the same level as say Lexus (which is not needed). They should be able to match Mercedes, Audi or BMW.
I think 150k demand estimate for S+X end of 2018 is too low. The S deliveries is already pushed to March 2016 now worldwide and there was 50k demand for S already in 2015. So to me it seems they already have a capacity problem with S+X. That said, if Tesla actually will produce more than 150k S+X in 2019 is a different matter, but I hope they will.
2016-2020 I think will be really, really good for them, I don't see what will stop the revenue growth at this point. TSLA shares are another matter as it depends on the general market. We currently are at about 3.5x 2016 Price to Sales ratio. This ratio has gone down from about 10x not so long ago, even though Tesla has done almost everything right during this time so I don't think the stock is expensive. I do think there is a risk of a ceiling when it reaches the same market cap as GM and Ford. But the path to get there I think is clear.
Interesting story about past cars ownership
. I think Tesla will have good quality for a premium brand, but they might not reach the same level as say Lexus (which is not needed). They should be able to match Mercedes, Audi or BMW.I think 150k demand estimate for S+X end of 2018 is too low. The S deliveries is already pushed to March 2016 now worldwide and there was 50k demand for S already in 2015. So to me it seems they already have a capacity problem with S+X. That said, if Tesla actually will produce more than 150k S+X in 2019 is a different matter, but I hope they will.
2016-2020 I think will be really, really good for them, I don't see what will stop the revenue growth at this point. TSLA shares are another matter as it depends on the general market. We currently are at about 3.5x 2016 Price to Sales ratio. This ratio has gone down from about 10x not so long ago, even though Tesla has done almost everything right during this time so I don't think the stock is expensive. I do think there is a risk of a ceiling when it reaches the same market cap as GM and Ford. But the path to get there I think is clear.
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