Production Ramp Speculation

[Vic_F]

What are the educated, and maybe random, guess-timations on the ramp schedule. My reservation is about half way in the approx. 700 who waited in line in Rocklin. I figure maybe a few thousand in 2017, 5-10 thousand in Q1 2018 all existing owners. Q2 and Q3 maybe 1,000 to 1,500 per week. If I am about 30-40 thousand back in the 115K that ordered before the reveal I guess I get the car Sept. Oct. of 2018.

What do you think the ramp up looks like?

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

What are the educated, and maybe random, guess-timations on the ramp schedule. My reservation is about half way in the approx. 700 who waited in line in Rocklin. I figure maybe a few thousand in 2017, 5-10 thousand in Q1 2018 all existing owners. Q2 and Q3 maybe 1,000 to 1,500 per week. If I am about 30-40 thousand back in the 115K that ordered before the reveal I guess I get the car Sept. Oct. of 2018.

What do you think the ramp up looks like?

There is a group that is trying to run an algorithm to estimate ramp. They want your full reservation number. Some here have said "don't ever release that number". I entered that site, and I expected them to say essentially what you said (I should be in the second half of the first 115000). But instead they said I'd be in the 400000 group. Maybe I got scammed, maybe my optimism does not hold water.
But - what I'm fairly sure of is that the general public has no clue as to the changes in the ramp schedule and we can at best guess.

 

[Bounou]

It's difficult to imagine Tesla not Doing everything to move up the ramp in light of the interest they have received so far, I would expect the criticism they would get if the person who orders a car 4 days after the reveal is expected to wait till 2020 to take delivery would be pretty crazy.

Having said that getting the batteries to make the price for this thing entirely relies on the gigafactory being able to produce cheaply at scale, maybe moving up the timeframe is just not possible...

 

[DAMON F]

What are the educated, and maybe random, guess-timations on the ramp schedule. My reservation is about half way in the approx. 700 who waited in line in Rocklin. I figure maybe a few thousand in 2017, 5-10 thousand in Q1 2018 all existing owners. Q2 and Q3 maybe 1,000 to 1,500 per week. If I am about 30-40 thousand back in the 115K that ordered before the reveal I guess I get the car Sept. Oct. of 2018.

What do you think the ramp up looks like?

I totally agree with your est.

 

[jsrawa]

I totally agree with your est.

If you listen to Elon on the earnings call he would tell you your estimate for delivery is late. He said if you want your car in 2018 you should still place your order now. If ramp up goes according to plan, and I know that's a big IF, you would see your car much earlier than that with a position in line like that.

 

[ecarfan]

In the Q1 2016 Earnings Call yesterday, Elon was very clear that his goal is to produce 100K to 200K Model 3's by the end of 2017.

He said the design is very close to being finalized, inside and out, so they can begin to produce the necessary tooling and finish that process 9 months from now.

Now factor in that the first cars will go to Tesla employees who have made a reservation (several thousand, I assume), and then that current Tesla owners have priority and those on the west coast of the US have priority.

Now make your guess...

 

[badbot]

OK, I'm reading tea leaves between the lines so take this with a 25lb salt lick.

EM seems to be targeting 100,000 to 200,000 in 2017.
sounds like everyone (155,000) who waited in line will be HAPPY.

and 2018 500,000 sounds like everyone else gets HAPPY in 2018.

I hope everything hits the goal. I want to see what happens if they nail it. It might just go ballistic! the stock price might go as well. income might exceed costs by 2 or 3 times, debt now is under 2b and should be under 4b income of 15b gross I would hope be over 3.9 net

 

[TaoJones]

4 Fremont production lines at 1000/week each. That's 100 cars per 10-hour shift x 2 shifts x 5 days/week per line. 50 hours/week per production line employee for a little overtime income and everybody's happy.

There's 200,000 cars/year right there. Done. Finis. Et voila. Easy peasy. All kinds of variables to tweak for higher output.

Next question?

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

yeah but.....assembly line is not the entire issue. getting parts also factors. if giga factory can't supply battery then Fremont can not finish product regardless of overtime.

 

[TaoJones]

yeah but.....assembly line is not the entire issue. getting parts also factors. if giga factory can't supply battery then Fremont can not finish product regardless of overtime.

Sure - as Elon said, you can't build cars with 99% of the parts.

So with the parts as planned, and with a factory that has already produced 500,000 units/year with yesteryear's technology and the headaches of union labor, it does not seem completely fanciful to achieve 200,000 units/year as noted above in a modern factory and an us versus the world mentality.

Because it makes more sense to have factories and gigafactories on the same continents as respective demand, and heaven forbid to have 2 factories on the same continent at some point (Helloooooo Alabama), maybe Fremont doesn't need to get much past 200-250K units/year. Hard to say yet, and hard to believe that factory ever did 10,000 cars a week. That's just staggering when you look at the layout.

Happily, if GM/Toyota could manage the supply chain for that, then there's at least a chance Tesla can do it again.

They're going to need bigger trams for the tours.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Sure - as Elon said, you can't build cars with 99% of the parts.

So with the parts as planned, and with a factory that has already produced 500,000 units/year with yesteryear's technology and the headaches of union labor, it does not seem completely fanciful to achieve 200,000 units/year as noted above in a modern factory and an us versus the world mentality.

Because it makes more sense to have factories and gigafactories on the same continents as respective demand, and heaven forbid to have 2 factories on the same continent at some point (Helloooooo Alabama), maybe Fremont doesn't need to get much past 200-250K units/year. Hard to say yet, and hard to believe that factory ever did 10,000 cars a week. That's just staggering when you look at the layout.

Happily, if GM/Toyota could manage the supply chain for that, then there's at least a chance Tesla can do it again.

They're going to need bigger trams for the tours.

just to be devils advocate...was the auto industry threatened by Toyota/GM? Could they have had more supporters and fewer enemies?

 

[Model 3]

Tesla to begin pilot production of Model 3 on February 20

Tesla to begin pilot production of Model 3 on February 20
Tesla has put Model 3 suppliers on notice that the company intends to start test building the Model 3 on February 20. Manufacturers often test build new models to verify that the assembly line is configured properly, to assess the build quality before full production starts, and to check on the quality of the parts that will be used in manufacture. The source who supplied the information to Reuters did not indicate how many Model 3 vehicles would be involved in the test build.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla confirms retooling of factory for Model 3 this month, will ‘pause’ Model S/X production for a week

Tesla confirmed in a statement to Electrek today that it plans to “pause” production for a week this month at the Fremont factory in order to install equipment for Model 3 production. The company doesn’t expect that it will affect its production for the first quarter 2017 since it “added production days to compensate.”

There have been previous instances of short downtimes at Tesla’s Fremont factory in order to expand its assembly line for higher production capacity and for the introduction of the Model X. During this new “production pause” this month, Tesla says that it will update the paint shop: “During this time, we plan to add capacity to the existing paint shop so that it is ready for Model 3, and perform general maintenance on other factory equipment.”

In the statement, Tesla added that this new equipment will allow the company to “begin Model 3 production later this year as planned” and enable them initiate their insanely ambitious ramp up “towards 500,000 vehicles annually in 2018.”

 

[MissAutobahn]

Imagine next year's gate at the Fremont factory from august 2017 on, all those Model 3 slipping of the ramp like this event last week

 

[electracity]

What do you think the ramp up looks like?

I think the majority of reservation holders today will not immediately configure when allowed. The uncertainty of the production ramp plus the unknown behavior of reservation holders makes predicting what the next year looks like extremely difficult.

$1000 buys the right to purchase a model 3. Many people have put the deposit down to avoid regret. The situation is not the same as putting a deposit down on a car that is in production. Many model X reservation holders never configured, including me. I expect I will buy a model 3, but not until many more options are available.

I do think Tesla will sell all the model 3s it can make for the foreseeable future. But I have no idea how the order queue will play out.

 

[DurandalAI]

I think the majority of reservation holders today will not immediately configure when allowed. The uncertainty of the production ramp plus the unknown behavior of reservation holders makes predicting what the next year looks like extremely difficult.

$1000 buys the right to purchase a model 3. Many people have put the deposit down to avoid regret. The situation is not the same as putting a deposit down on a car that is in production. Many model X reservation holders never configured, including me. I expect I will buy a model 3, but not until many more options are available.

I do think Tesla will sell all the model 3s it can make for the foreseeable future. But I have no idea how the order queue will play out.

So you reserved a Model X but never configured? What did you do instead? Buy a Model S, or get a refund?

 

[mmd]

In the Q1 2016 Earnings Call yesterday, Elon was very clear that his goal is to produce 100K to 200K Model 3's by the end of 2017.

He said the design is very close to being finalized, inside and out, so they can begin to produce the necessary tooling and finish that process 9 months from now.

Now factor in that the first cars will go to Tesla employees who have made a reservation (several thousand, I assume), and then that current Tesla owners have priority and those on the west coast of the US have priority.

Now make your guess...

Wow, this old thread has come back to life again. Are we still on target for this? Elon hasn't corrected this plan yet, so I guess this is still the plan.