Project Redwood (Compact Crossover)

[FreqFlyer]

More Model 3 like, and a hatchback.

Think Model Y, now shrink the proportions

 

[Philzer]

So Tesla has been breaking down Honda Civics to learn how to make cars more efficiently and cost effective. One would think they'd have done something like this way before now. But I guess better late than never. (probably have to a lesser extent)

Elon's cryptic comments hinted at design cues from the CyberTruck. And they're calling this model a "compact crossover".
I was thinking the new model would be more hatchback-like. But sounds more like it being a Mazda CX-30/Honda HRV kind of footprint.
So if they stay with the current naming format, by size, we have the Model X, Model Y, and this seems to fit as the Model Z.

But the question we'll all be waiting to get an answer to will be, How many design cues from the CyberTruck? Are they going to shrink the CT, cut the bed, cover it for a small cargo area? Or will it be more of a smaller Y?
From a simplistic, cost effective, mass appeal, standpoint, I have to think it's gotta lean toward a refreshed Y-type exterior look.
Elon said the "revolution in manufacturing that will be represented by that car will blow people’s minds." And we knew they were doing some cutting edge manufacturing techniques in order to make this vehicle cheap enough to move the needle. But the aesthetic design is going to be just as important if Tesla wants to truly shock the car industry, and appeal to the masses. A beautiful vehicle, around $25k.
Guess we'll find out in about a year.

"and this seems to fit as the Model Z."
Model Z would make sense in an existential way too, with pricing and utility aimed at gen Z.

 

[mgs333]

It's amazing that there are so many people who still believe Tesla's timelines.

 

[mikez10288]

June 2025 production

LOL

 

[uscbucsfan]

It's amazing that there are so many people who still believe Tesla's timelines.

Especially when Elon expressed before saying late 2025 that it was his optimistic timeline where "we sleep on the factory floor". Realistically this is sometime in 2026, same with Optimus. That's not a bad thing, they need it to be good. They released the CT as an unfinished product.

 

[mknmike]

Nobody will provide a deposit without seeing a prototype first.

 

[KerrySkates]

So Tesla is making a Chevy Bolt like vehicle. Okay \_(ツ)_/¯

I really hope they can keep the cost down on this this. Hitting that $25k mark is super important for this vehicle. If it comes in closer to current Model 3 pricing then I will consider this another disappointment.

Idgaf about “revolutionary manufacturing” if it causes the vehicles to cost more and/or to have launch problems.

 

[404 Not Found]

I want one for my wife. It doesn't matter how well equipped it is. It's a Tesla, so I know it will be good enough. What matters to me is that they make it considerably smaller than a 3 or Y and stick to the $25,000 price. An LFP battery would help clinch the deal.

 

[jay1122]

I am genuinely curious on what else can Tesla cut in their car to make it more affordable. The interior is already minimal. You don't even have a dash screen. The M3 RWD model already has low battery with 200+ Range and it costs $39K. You can't go any lower than that for range. What else can you cut to make it $25K? The roof glass has to go for sure. All the extra amenities like heated seats and driving assist too. Cheap cloth seats? narrow tires and cheap wheels?

 

[Slipstream]

I am genuinely curious on what else can Tesla cut in their car to make it more affordable. The interior is already minimal. You don't even have a dash screen. The M3 RWD model already has low battery with 200+ Range and it costs $39K. You can't go any lower than that for range. What else can you cut to make it $25K? The roof glass has to go for sure. All the extra amenities like heated seats and driving assist too. Cheap cloth seats? narrow tires and cheap wheels?

2 door hatch?

 

[ChooseFreedom]

I am genuinely curious on what else can Tesla cut in their car to make it more affordable. The interior is already minimal. You don't even have a dash screen. The M3 RWD model already has low battery with 200+ Range and it costs $39K. You can't go any lower than that for range. What else can you cut to make it $25K? The roof glass has to go for sure. All the extra amenities like heated seats and driving assist too. Cheap cloth seats? narrow tires and cheap wheels?

Costs are in every aspect of manufacturing, not just the cost of parts.

There's a great mini-doc about Henry Ford and Model T.
It shows how Ford revolutionized the assembly line. What previously took hours, they did in minutes. The labor costs alone per car allowed them to dramatically reduce the price.

A big part of Tesla's future models, and their costs, will be from whatever new processes they've come up with regarding their assembly lines. Sure, there probably will be less bells and whistles too in the new small model. But whether it's raw materials, suppliers, plant location advantages, labor, or new, more efficient processes, they all contribute to the cost of a vehicle.
So even though Tesla wants to make an affordable mass market vehicle. I don't think they want to launch a car that is not recognizable as a Tesla, inside and out.
It'll be basic, not many frills, but at the end of the day, it won't serve their goals if it doesn't feel like a Tesla.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

2 door hatch?

That's what I was thinking too at first.
But the references I keep seeing say "small SUV/crossover".
So I'm thinking more like a Honda HRV or Nissan Juke kind of footprint.

I do think a hot hatch could sell pretty well though. Imagine a VW R32 for $25k!

 

[mknmike]

The ~$10k the government is providing for a model 3 puts the current price tag as low as $25k. I bet that as far as problems go, and with the fact that everything is controlled via a screen, reducing the number of doors and using cheaper wheels might help, but that’s probably only about $2000 worth of savings. I don’t think it’s the fear of the high price tag of a Tesla that keeps some out, rather than many simply can’t afford a NEW car, and others fear the expensive failures out of warranty. The Bolt is/was out there for people who can get over the terrible looks of the bolt. My wife said “no way.”

My wife did quickly get over the “I want to sit up high” thing with this model 3, and now thanks me for buying it. Payment with near zero down is ~$650/mo and we have about $10,000 coming from the governments. So we will be cash-flow positive for at least the first year on this car. Does price matter? I don’t think that’s the issue with the model 3 (with incentives), at least not in 2023.

 

[uscbucsfan]

The ~$10k the government is providing for a model 3 puts the current price tag as low as $25k. I bet that as far as problems go, and with the fact that everything is controlled via a screen, reducing the number of doors and using cheaper wheels might help, but that’s probably only about $2000 worth of savings. I don’t think it’s the fear of the high price tag of a Tesla that keeps some out, rather than many simply can’t afford a NEW car, and others fear the expensive failures out of warranty. The Bolt is/was out there for people who can get over the terrible looks of the bolt. My wife said “no way.”

My wife did quickly get over the “I want to sit up high” thing with this model 3, and now thanks me for buying it. Payment with near zero down is ~$650/mo and we have about $10,000 coming from the governments. So we will be cash-flow positive for at least the first year on this car. Does price matter? I don’t think that’s the issue with the model 3 (with incentives), at least not in 2023.

What M3 can be had for $25k?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750961586699927964

Unboxed confirmed

 

[DrChaos]

I am genuinely curious on what else can Tesla cut in their car to make it more affordable. The interior is already minimal. You don't even have a dash screen. The M3 RWD model already has low battery with 200+ Range and it costs $39K. You can't go any lower than that for range. What else can you cut to make it $25K? The roof glass has to go for sure. All the extra amenities like heated seats and driving assist too. Cheap cloth seats? narrow tires and cheap wheels?

Roof glass may be there so that the robots can do work on the interior from above, so it may not be cheaper to eliminate it.

Not sure the amenities will go---they will make for a Plus or whatever version which is is the more likely common sellers/stock and will have more margin. The average selling price will have to be $33K otherwise they can't do it.

Potentially a cheaper wiring system will reduce costs. Rear bench seat with no fold down. No rear vents or screen. Manual seat adjustment. No dual motor.

 

[Johnny_nd]

It will have everything that makes Tesla a Tesla. Power seats, glass roof, TACC. The money save will come from many things:

Production output will be main cost saver as they aim for it to be their nr. 1 seller.
Battery will be 52kwh LFP, i believe this was confirmed earlier.
They will have either mega or giga casting. M3 is their cheapest model but does not have this, since it was designed before they made this tech and probably deemed it not worth shifting to on Highland.
A scaled 48V system to minimise copper wire usage.
Smaller car = less material overall.
I dont believe they will make a AWD variant, but only RWD for efficiency and 250+ miles/400km claimed range.
Probably a lot of other cost cuts that we dont see/expect.

Think of it like this. Tesla way of thinking is using as few parts as possible and the same part in as many cars/models as possible. That enables the suppliers to scale production and further decrease the cost of every part nr.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

It will have everything that makes Tesla a Tesla. Power seats, glass roof, TACC. The money save will come from many things:

Production output will be main cost saver as they aim for it to be their nr. 1 seller.
Battery will be 52kwh LFP, i believe this was confirmed earlier.
They will have either mega or giga casting. M3 is their cheapest model but does not have this, since it was designed before they made this tech and probably deemed it not worth shifting to on Highland.
A scaled 48V system to minimise copper wire usage.
Smaller car = less material overall.
I dont believe they will make a AWD variant, but only RWD for efficiency and 250+ miles/400km claimed range.
Probably a lot of other cost cuts that we dont see/expect.

Think of it like this. Tesla way of thinking is using as few parts as possible and the same part in as many cars/models as possible. That enables the suppliers to scale production and further decrease the cost of every part nr.

Agree with all of this.

"A scaled 48V system to minimize copper wire usage."
Getting away from the 12V wiring is a MUCH bigger manufacturing savings than most people realize. So much less material, so many more options for flexibility.

 

[DrChaos]

It will have everything that makes Tesla a Tesla. Power seats, glass roof, TACC. The money save will come from many things:

Production output will be main cost saver as they aim for it to be their nr. 1 seller.
Battery will be 52kwh LFP, i believe this was confirmed earlier.
They will have either mega or giga casting. M3 is their cheapest model but does not have this, since it was designed before they made this tech and probably deemed it not worth shifting to on Highland.
A scaled 48V system to minimise copper wire usage.
Smaller car = less material overall.
I dont believe they will make a AWD variant, but only RWD for efficiency and 250+ miles/400km claimed range.
Probably a lot of other cost cuts that we dont see/expect.

Think of it like this. Tesla way of thinking is using as few parts as possible and the same part in as many cars/models as possible. That enables the suppliers to scale production and further decrease the cost of every part nr.

I predict many subsystems will be made in China. Battery and electronics of course. And maybe even the doors, with windows and all interior and electronics all pre-assembled.

There is a Volvo EX30 with a very base RWD model selling soon for $35K, and it's made in China with a 30% tariff. It has a bigger 69 kWh battery. A 52 kWh LFP will be cheaper still, and Tesla can make a more efficient car---it will be lower and more aerodynamic and more sedan/hatch like than CUV.

 

[Artful Dodger]

More Model 3 like, and a hatchback.

Think Model Y, now shrink the proportions

When I hear Tesla compact CUV, my mind goes here: