Pure speculation: What will the CPO X market look like in 5 years?

[NewCow]

I'm cancelling my X reservation in order to buy a CPO S for $50k (2014, 20k miles), which I think is a sensible financial decision since the CPO prices are great right now. I still want an X eventually though for my wife with more seats, so I'm wondering if in about 5-6 years if CPO X prices will be comparable to what we're about to pay for my S. Mainly, I just care about having 6-7 seats but the other options aren't super important, although my wife would love the PUP with HEPA. I realize it's incredibly premature since X is just launching. Any thoughts/ideas/guesses? Just looking for some educated guesses.

 

[jlake02]

If I had to guess (just speculation) I'd say the CPO prices will be similar but not quite as good.

My GUESS is more people will purchase MS, resulting in more supply in the 2ndary market for MS. MX will remain a bit more elusive due to lower overall sales of the midsize luxury SUV compared to the luxury sedan.

Again.. just my speculation, but we'll see.


EDIT: On a side note, I agree with your decision. A 2014 MS w/ 20k miles for $50k seems like a great deal. The problem with buying NEW is the first 24-36 months just WRECKS the value via depreciation. If the MX follows the MS (normal luxury) path, buying new results in a ~60% value loss inside 36 months.

 

[ZachShahan]

First of all, making the sensible decision is... sensible. Sounds like a good call. I'm going back and forth between these two options right now, and it's a hard call.

As far as CPO prices for the X in 5 years, I'd hope they'd be in the 50Ks, but it's so hard to know. Overall, I'd expect enough improvement in autopilot hardware, batteries, and other tech that people will be upgrading and Xs on the CPO website will be attractively priced. We'll see...

 

[Cattledog]

First of all, making the sensible decision is... sensible. Sounds like a good call. I'm going back and forth between these two options right now, and it's a hard call.

As far as CPO prices for the X in 5 years, I'd hope they'd be in the 50Ks, but it's so hard to know. Overall, I'd expect enough improvement in autopilot hardware, batteries, and other tech that people will be upgrading and Xs on the CPO website will be attractively priced. We'll see...

That great deals will be available is all but guaranteed. In 5 years we'll also have Model 3 and Y, so a five year old X will definitely be under 50K.

 

[Superloud]

The cheapest 2014 CPO is a S60 for $54.2k as far as I can see.
You sure you didn't mean to say 2013?

I'm toying with the same choice but all I really see are 2013s at those prices

 

[Chrisizzle]

It may be just me but I find the question flawed. It's only 4 days into the new year so, your 2014 is less than two years old. Even the oldest Model S (released June 2012, correct?) would be 3.5 years old.

So, a 5 to 6 year old Model X should be a lot cheaper than a 3 year old Model S. That would be true of any old ICE car and doubly so now that cars are more akin to technology. I love my 2014 Model S but (like a laptop or cell phone), it's obsolete now that autopilot and AWD are out.

In five years time, there will be other electric cars to choose from let alone the advances Elon will make on the X. I suggest you'll see at least standard depreciation.

Just look up another car that had a purchase price of $125,000 five years ago and that should be a good bet.

 

[Vitold]

I think CPO X prices may be higher than comparable S for one reason: X is an SUV/CUV - car style that is much more popular and therefore there will be more demand for it.

 

[NewCow]

The cheapest 2014 CPO is a S60 for $54.2k as far as I can see.
You sure you didn't mean to say 2013?

I'm toying with the same choice but all I really see are 2013s at those prices

Mine is def a 2014, but I've still been poking around the CPO site for fun and have noticed that all the most affordable ones are 2013s. I think I got really lucky.

 

[viperboy]

I think CPO X prices may be higher than comparable S for one reason: X is an SUV/CUV - car style that is much more popular and therefore there will be more demand for it.

a quick google shows that 2011 Range Rover HSE goes for between 30 and 40k, when the sticker on a new one is ~100k. I think this is the closest comparison you'll get for high end SUV. That being said, EVs are new, and the tech and competition is rapidly improving.

Also- OP, where did you find this gem? Sign me up for a 2014 for 50k! (What are the battery / options?)

 

[NewCow]

a quick google shows that 2011 Range Rover HSE goes for between 30 and 40k, when the sticker on a new one is ~100k. I think this is the closest comparison you'll get for high end SUV. That being said, EVs are new, and the tech and competition is rapidly improving.

Also- OP, where did you find this gem? Sign me up for a 2014 for 50k! (What are the battery / options?)

I think I got really lucky! Snagged in on the Tesla CPO site almost immediately after seeing it. Not a whole lot of options but has everything I'd want. Body color roof, black piano decor, black nappa leather seats, Supercharging, Tech Package.