Run this a few more times and see if there is a strong consensus number; it's definitely a constant. Rated Wh/mi is pretty fine grained whereas the RM and PM are not so you will see some swing plus or minus by 3-4 Wh/mi. You can also try manipulating your driving (e.g., over 5mi) to put the Average Wh/mi right on the dotted line on the graph, that is when RM = PM and Avg Wh/mi = Rated Wh/mi.
Here's another data point:193 projected miles/163 rated-miles * 252 Wh/mi = 298 Wh/rated mile, a bit higher than before.
If your average Wh/mi was less than the Rated Wh/mi then the change in RM should have been less than the distance traveled. More specifically, your RM should have changed by 248 / 293 * 60 = 51.
I can't explain the results you observed.
Neither can I, except to say that generally speaking rated miles consumed is much more than actual miles unless I am achieving very, very low (compared to any "normal" driing) Wh/mi. Of course there are hyper-miler's out there going even lower, but then they are also presumably go way farther than rated range in the process.
i haven't been looking at the projected range before now, it's pretty funny, because it keeps showing that I'm seriously beating rated range, and yet as I continue to beat it (projected range - rated range going up), the rated range usually still drops faster than my actual miles traveled. Here is a screen shot (both screens) showing a slightly better case. In this case change in rated miles was 188 - 163 = 25 rated miles since the charge (2 hours before the end of this trip). The actual trip miles was 27.1 in two segments parked for ~ 1.5 hours turned off in-between and I achieved 247 Wh/mi for the trip. i ended the charging 5 minutes before it finished (didn't reach target of 80%), so the starting range was 188 instead the typical 191/192 when I complete an 80% charge.
This is actually encouraging because i've previously achieved lower Wh/mi and used more than rated miles rather than less. Still this was done mostly at steady 55 mph with AC off.
Your hypothesis assumes that maximum rated range is a constant at 240, which is not the case. Rated Wh/mi is a constant and battery capacity declines over time, thus maximum rated range also declines. Is the 240RM the observed value when you charged to 100%?
What is the battery capacity you purchased, the unlocked capacity?
My hypothesis didn't assume a constant maximum rated range. The battery degradation could be accounted for by the BMS system reporting that a full charge is less than 100% for instance.
I have never charged beyond 80% yet. My car is a refreshed 70D and I did not pay for the 75 upgrade, so my purchased capacity is 70 kWh. 240 miles range is my EPA rated range from the window sticker.(i think the website when I ordered said 243, but there is no longer a 70D on Tesla's website).
My biggest concern is that for every trip I've checked against EV trip planner, the kWh used is spot on, but the change in rated miles is way more than what EV trip planner predicts. It's to the point that for actual long trips where EV trip planner says I would arrive at a super charger with 32 miles rated range remaining, scaling my short trip experiences suggest I will hit 0 before arriving at the super charger if I follow the suggesting charging from EV trip planner.
I really do wonder if my car's BMS isn't configured for 60 kWh even though the rest of the car says 70.