Reaching the Magic $25,000 Price Point, Who First?

[gnuarm]

Tesla seems to be going in the wrong direction price wise in the short term. I'm wondering who is going to have the first 4/5 passenger EV with a 250 mile range with a real price under $25,000?

I know Musk has mentioned this target many times, but Musk doesn't actually speak for the company and is right less often than a coin flip in such matters.

I don't see where other EV companies are addressing this issue in the press. I suppose they want to get a few models out and establish the profitability of EVs first.

There may be models that sacrifice range for price offering 150 miles or less. I suppose they have a place in the market with many drivers being able to charge every day and so not needing longer ranges. I'm mainly interested in models with longer ranges so as to enable realistic road trips. Even 250 miles is not ideal for longer trips requiring charging every 150 miles or even less. 100% - 10% at the top - 10% at the bottom - 10% lifetime wear - spacing of charging facilities

So who is in the lead in your opinion? Any idea how soon? I think that is the real question. With inflation I wonder if we need to move the goal posts as we approach the target? So maybe it will be a $30,000 EV ($25,000 by today's money) by the time we get there?

 

[MD70]

My guess is it will be Tesla but will be at least 5 years before it exists.

 

[Do_Not_Shake]

I think that's what the Model 2 is "ideally" trying to achieve. But I'm guessing a lot of that hinges on the 4680 cells and when they can start mass producing them.

 

[backlash224]

I think that's what the Model 2 is "ideally" trying to achieve. But I'm guessing a lot of that hinges on the 4680 cells and when they can start mass producing them.

With the recent price increases across the board, sadly the Model 2 will probably slot in and occupy the $30-35k range if I had to guess

 

[wws]

By taking advantage of various incentives, a stripped Bolt EV has been pretty much there for a couple years now. Leaf too. If road tripping is a requirement, then obviously Bolt over Leaf.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It’ll be a Chinese manufacturer probably. Tesla has enough vehicle volume with their existing and announced vehicles for the next 4 years.

 

[gnuarm]

I think that's what the Model 2 is "ideally" trying to achieve. But I'm guessing a lot of that hinges on the 4680 cells and when they can start mass producing them.

I haven't kept up with Tesla's progress, are the 4680 cells anything other than a larger cell with slightly improved technical features and costs? Is that really so significant?

 

[gnuarm]

By taking advantage of various incentives, a stripped Bolt EV has been pretty much there for a couple years now. Leaf too. If road tripping is a requirement, then obviously Bolt over Leaf.

In the US the Leaf has no further incentives until Congress approves new ones. Or have they done that?

 

[gnuarm]

It’ll be a Chinese manufacturer probably. Tesla has enough vehicle volume with their existing and announced vehicles for the next 4 years.

Yes, that makes sense. The market there is much larger than elsewhere, but I believe the focus is on urban vehicles with shorter ranges.

I guess I imposed the longer range because I'm used to the US market which requires longer range models even if 99% of the use will be daily, short trips. I think that is just the way most people think of autos in the US. Maybe this will be a turning point for how people buy cars. We may finally change our mindset.

 

[Kandiru]

I still kick myself watching my neighbor drive his BNIB 2020 MS LR he grabbed for 68k late last year after Elon decided to play games with Lucid.

 

[wws]

In the US the Leaf has no further incentives until Congress approves new ones. Or have they done that?

Only Tesla and GM have hit the 200k US sales. Nissan isn't there yet.

 

[gnuarm]

Only Tesla and GM have hit the 200k US sales. Nissan isn't there yet.

Nissan can't be far behind. I know there are a lot of Leafs out there. I think GM spent their wad on the Volt as much as anything. I know someone who literally raves about the Volt, so I have no idea why they tossed it into the bit bucket. Seems like they had a really nice driveline setup with power from both engine and electric at the same time for performance and still got great mileage. I suppose they didn't want to confuse the market or something silly. But then, only a tiny portion of the automotive market has bought EVs, both BEV and PEH, so there's still a lot of educating to do.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Nissan can't be far behind. I know there are a lot of Leafs out there. I think GM spent their wad on the Volt as much as anything. I know someone who literally raves about the Volt, so I have no idea why they tossed it into the bit bucket. Seems like they had a really nice driveline setup with power from both engine and electric at the same time for performance and still got great mileage. I suppose they didn't want to confuse the market or something silly. But then, only a tiny portion of the automotive market has bought EVs, both BEV and PEH, so there's still a lot of educating to do.

The volt was a great car. Am I surprised that GM made a mistake there though? Not at all. Their grand strategy for EVs is an electric hummer!

 

[Discoducky]

GM currently sells low cost EV's in China but they are not bringing them here, I'd assume as they wouldn't pass NHTSA minimum safety testing.

China has a lower standard for these vehicles. An Overview of Automotive Vehicle and Component Regulations in China - In Compliance Magazine

Tesla will most likely be the first to make the safest smaller EV that is much less expensive to own and operate than a 3 or Y. This will require 4680's, single piece chassis and all in-country BOM. This will most likely happen in 2023; full production.

 

[gnuarm]

GM currently sells low cost EV's in China but they are not bringing them here, I'd assume as they wouldn't pass NHTSA minimum safety testing.

China has a lower standard for these vehicles. An Overview of Automotive Vehicle and Component Regulations in China - In Compliance Magazine

Tesla will most likely be the first to make the safest smaller EV that is much less expensive to own and operate than a 3 or Y. This will require 4680's, single piece chassis and all in-country BOM. This will most likely happen in 2023; full production.

Those are pretty soft requirements, "much less expensive", "safest". If the BOM has to be all in-country that means the car will be made in China, no?

I wonder if it would be cheaper to make components in China and ship them to the US for assembly or to make the entire car in China and ship the final product?

 

[gnuarm]

They may not do well elsewhere, but GM knows what sells in the US. Look at the Cybertruck. They will sell a bunch to start, but once the initial spurt is over, the US designed trucks will dominate. Musk has said he will redesign if it doesn't sell well, so clearly he has doubts too. GM won't have that problem.

 

[SO16]

They may not do well elsewhere, but GM knows what sells in the US. Look at the Cybertruck. They will sell a bunch to start, but once the initial spurt is over, the US designed trucks will dominate. Musk has said he will redesign if it doesn't sell well, so clearly he has doubts too. GM won't have that problem.

Over a million reservations is more than just an initial spurt. That will take years to clear out the backlog even if 50% cancel.

Elon said that during the debut. Based on interested reservation count, I think CT will do well. And it will do even better as others see them in person. Yes it’s only 100 to reserve but few would pay that if they didn’t want it at all. I’d buy it over the competition because of the no body rust/no paint/no dents.

As far as the 25k vehicle, the test isn’t who comes out with it first. It’s who can mass produce it profitably.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Over a million reservations is more than just an initial spurt. That will take years to clear out the backlog even if 50% cancel.

Right. I’m amazed that people can’t get over their own biases and just believe the friggin data. You don’t like the looks? Well, many do, get over it. There are plenty of, in my opinion, ugly cars and trucks that sell quite well. Looks aren’t everything, and the utility of the stainless steel Cybertruck cant be denied.

As far as the 25k vehicle, the test isn’t who comes out with it first. It’s who can mass produce it profitably.

Right, and due to to how LFP patents played out, the Chinese have tons of experience with the cheapest battery chemistry that even Tesla is just learning about.

 

[gnuarm]

Over a million reservations is more than just an initial spurt. That will take years to clear out the backlog even if 50% cancel.

Elon said that during the debut. Based on interested reservation count, I think CT will do well. And it will do even better as others see them in person. Yes it’s only 100 to reserve but few would pay that if they didn’t want it at all. I’d buy it over the competition because of the no body rust/no paint/no dents.

As far as the 25k vehicle, the test isn’t who comes out with it first. It’s who can mass produce it profitably.

Tesla still owes me a couple grand for model 3 reservations. They don't seem very inclined to refund the money. A $100 deposit is no indication of anything really. Many are likely speculators hoping to see an higher than new price after market.

 

[SO16]

Tesla still owes me a couple grand for model 3 reservations. They don't seem very inclined to refund the money. A $100 deposit is no indication of anything really. Many are likely speculators hoping to see an higher than new price after market.

I received my model 3 refund back within a few business days. I did it via ACH transfer. I have heard other refund methods take much longer.

I’m sure many are speculators and that’s why I said “even if 50% cancel”. Ford F-150 Lightning also has a $100 fee but just a fraction of the reservations (160k as of this month).