Realistically, how much is my Model S worth today?

[Cyclone]

gynchis, the big pain for you is buyers like me. I've never been performance oriented, so splurging on the P wouldn't be worth it for me. With the 60 vs. 85, I would pay the $10k more for the 85 b/c of a 70 mile difference, included supercharging, and the unlimited mile warranty on the drivetrain. The 70D is a great proposition for me. I could see value in the dual motor, but not a requirement for me. The 25 mile range loss is worth $10k in savings for me compared to the 85D, and even $5k in savings compared to the 85. Considering your car does not have TACC (and eventually autopilot), I wouldn't buy it for more than $55. I walked from buying an inventory 85 for $80k (before $7.5k rebate) with tech and leather because it wasn't the right color for me. Eventually, the right one will show up. Now it will be a 70D for me and my goal is to be in the 70s for it (for the options I want). Buyers like me are killing your resale.

Personally, I would keep the car and trade up down the road. Current owners are being hit by a big depreciation right now from the classic/Autopilot and RWD/AWD release, plus the 70D moving Tesla's target closer to mainstream from early adopters.

 

[gnychis]

Traffic Aware (Adaptive) Cruise Control. AutoPilot cars have it.

Thanks! Couldn't figure that one out.

Recent Manheim auction sales

That is definitely helpful!

gynchis, the big pain for you is buyers like me. I've never been performance oriented, so splurging on the P wouldn't be worth it for me. With the 60 vs. 85, I would pay the $10k more for the 85 b/c of a 70 mile difference, included supercharging, and the unlimited mile warranty on the drivetrain. The 70D is a great proposition for me. I could see value in the dual motor, but not a requirement for me. The 25 mile range loss is worth $10k in savings for me compared to the 85D, and even $5k in savings compared to the 85. Considering your car does not have TACC (and eventually autopilot), I wouldn't buy it for more than $55. I walked from buying an inventory 85 for $80k (before $7.5k rebate) with tech and leather because it wasn't the right color for me. Eventually, the right one will show up. Now it will be a 70D for me and my goal is to be in the 70s for it (for the options I want). Buyers like me are killing your resale.

Personally, I would keep the car and trade up down the road. Current owners are being hit by a big depreciation right now from the classic/Autopilot and RWD/AWD release, plus the 70D moving Tesla's target closer to mainstream from early adopters.

Haha, I just wouldn't sell it to you then But seriously, it seems like the 70D is getting towards a much better value car. It seems like it's nearly the perfect fit for you.

Keeping the car, it only seems as though it will start depreciating even faster, won't it? Seems like Tesla is being extremely pro-active about adding new features to the cars. This was something that wasn't aware to me when I first bought it (didn't imagine the D or the 70D or the autopilot).

By the way, my purpose of starting this thread was to get an idea of the cars value. The money isn't so much the kicker to me as the fact that I just barely ever drive it in Boston. The city is much smaller, the roads are crappy, parking is horrible, etc. If I were still in CA, I would still be hugging the car every morning.

 

[Cyclone]

No worries. I am also sure there are people who would pay more than me too!

I think the "big hurdle" drops in value have now occurred. From here on, IMO, you will only see the following drops:
- normal depreciation
- any delayed Autopilot depreciation once the software rolls out later this year (I still think most of this has already hit you)
- redesign or facelift of Model S (I personally don't think this will happen until closer to the realize of the Model 3)
- release of the Model 3 (I think this will be a big hit to value)

That said, it's sunk cost, you have the car, and I personally would hold onto the car rather than trade to any other vehicle. But then, I own my cars for a decade at a time, so I accept such depreciation over a much longer period of use-life.

 

[UberEV1]

Keeping the car, it only seems as though it will start depreciating even faster, won't it?

The price protection / buy back guarantee should help manage our downside risk . . . or am I being optimistic..??..

 

[skilly]

given the range in MS offerings, this doesn't tell us all that much except for a general range in what they are bringing at auction. In general though, it doesnt look like the MS is taking any kind of special hit on depreciation as compared to other 2 year old cars.

Recent Manheim auction sales

04/01/15		Regular	$75,000	10,411	Above		EL	A	Yes
03/26/15		Regular	$70,000	21,870	Avg		EL	A	Yes
03/25/15		Regular	$65,000	9,516	Below		EL	A	Yes
03/19/15		Regular	$75,500	5,803	Above		EL	A	Yes
03/05/15		Lease	$73,000	3,746	Avg		EL	A	Yes
03/05/15		Regular	$68,500	16,962	Avg		EL	A	Yes

- - - Updated - - -

And model year 2013 Model S:

04/15/15 Regular $69,000 18,106 Above EL A Yes 04/14/15 Regular $68,800 10,258 Above EL A Yes 04/09/15 Regular $62,000 27,255 Avg EL A Yes 04/07/15 Regular $55,500 30,030 Below EL A Yes 04/01/15 Regular $61,000 39,287 Avg EL A Yes 03/26/15 Regular $61,250 31,283 Avg EL A Yes 03/19/15 Regular $66,500 9,962 Avg EL Yes 03/18/15 Regular $63,500 23,884 Avg EL A Yes - - - Updated - - - 04/15/15 Regular $69,000 18,106 Above EL A Yes 04/14/15 Regular $68,800 10,258 Above EL A Yes 04/09/15 Regular $62,000 27,255 Avg EL A Yes 04/07/15 Regular $55,500 30,030 Below EL A Yes 04/01/15 Regular $61,000 39,287 Avg EL A Yes 03/26/15 Regular $61,250 31,283 Avg EL A Yes 03/19/15 Regular $66,500 9,962 Avg EL Yes 03/18/15 Regular $63,500 23,884 Avg EL A Yes

- - - Updated - - - The price protection / buy back guarantee should help manage our downside risk . . . or am I being optimistic..??.. That guarantee is pretty weak...if the cars follow more normal patterns of depreciation, I would say you should be ahead of the game in terms of your car value vs. the guarantee.

 

[taurusking]

- release of the Model 3 (I think this will be a big hit to value) .

I do not see how Model 3 release would be a big hit in value for Model S.

Model S is a premium electric sedan and Model 3 would be a regular electric sedan

 

[Cyclone]

I do not see how Model 3 release would be a big hit in value for Model S.

Model S is a premium electric sedan and Model 3 would be a regular electric sedan

Against a new Model s yes, but buyers looking at a budget purchase of a really viable EV could view used Model S vehicles like that. In that scenario, a Model III would be a competitor, as would second generation Leafs and Volts.

 

[Xpress]

given the range in MS offerings, this doesn't tell us all that much except for a general range in what they are bringing at auction. In general though, it doesnt look like the MS is taking any kind of special hit on depreciation as compared to other 2 year old cars.

Auction prices are usually the most accurate idea of what a used car is worth - it's the lowest you can expect of what a dealer will pay on a trade-in. Walk into any dealer with your used car and ask for a value, they will head directly to their computer and bring up the Manheim site to see auction prices and calculate their worst case scenario before making you an offer. Manheim doesn't always provide the best accuracy regarding trim levels on low volume cars and there is no distinction between a 60 and 85 in this list. The Performance (85+) cars are not listed here.

Options are never shown on Manheim as they add next to no value at wholesale or on a trade. Same is true with high end Porsches and the like. Even a car with $50K in options adds next to nothing on resale compared with a low optioned car. Condition and mileage are always the biggest factors on the value of a used vehicle.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I do not see how Model 3 release would be a big hit in value for Model S.

Model S is a premium electric sedan and Model 3 would be a regular electric sedan

The Model 3 will have a more popular form factor at a lower price and will, according to Elon Musk, be like the 3 Series with a large range of prices.

Tesla will continue to improve and sell the Model S, but I think it's clear that the cost reductions necessary for the Model 3/Y to have 500k sales per year will necessarily significantly lower the value of any Model S bought _now_.

 

[stevej119]

No worries. I am also sure there are people who would pay more than me too!

I think the "big hurdle" drops in value have now occurred. From here on, IMO, you will only see the following drops:
- normal depreciation
- any delayed Autopilot depreciation once the software rolls out later this year (I still think most of this has already hit you)
- redesign or facelift of Model S (I personally don't think this will happen until closer to the realize of the Model 3)
- release of the Model 3 (I think this will be a big hit to value)

Model X may be a big hit on current S value as we may see a battery upgrade when Model X reservation holders finally get to spec their cars. As has been mentioned in other threads, it's unlikely that Model X will come out with less range than the current S, and since it will be less aerodynamic that likely means a bigger, or more efficient, battery. Likel that battery would then also be available as the replacement for the S85.

 

[Cyclone]

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. If the 85 battery stops being king, then yes, I feel that used 85s will take a hit in value.

 

[Electric Joe]

gnychis, I feel bad for you! It sounds like you're getting bad news in each reply. But I may have more:

I've spent the past 6 weeks or so looking at used Model S ads on Autotrader, CarGurus, eBay Motors and TMC. I'm looking carefully since I'm actually shopping for a car, but am not in a hurry to buy, so I've learned quite a lot about prices and, as a prospective buyer, am probably qualified to represent buyers and offer some points:

1) Expensive options don't count for much. When I'm looking to buy a used car, there are core options that I consider valuable, but most are just a bonus if they happen to be included in a car that I like. Sunroof, tech package, battery capacity? They're core options I'll pay for -- important. Paint protection, premium wheels, premium interior, premium sound? They're bonuses -- not important, but if they're present, great. In short, high dollar options at the time you ordered the car new may not pay off or differentiate very much in the used market. This generally applies to aftermarket things like a premium center console, too.

2) The 70D really will drag down prices on used 85 kWh cars. You can be sure there will be lots of buzz about the 70D once the cars are actually on roads. You'll see YouTube videos of people showing off the crazy (albeit not "insane") acceleration and it'll be all over the interwebs. Being the lowest priced new Tesla available, any prospective buyers of a used Model S will look at this popular new kid on the block as a good option. Sure, 70 kWh is less than 85 kWh, but if a car has lots of miles on it already, buyers will assume the battery pack's range has diminished (true or not) and a brand new 70 kWh pack feels about the same. So yes, my opinion as a used Model S shopper is that the 70D will be a big downer for anyone selling a used Model S.

3) Random point about the 60. I know you aren't selling a 60, but wow. I can't explain it, but the 60 kWh cars I see for sale are almost always priced as high as comparable 85s are. I don't know what they actually end up selling for, but it's incredible that people are asking so much. My only guess on this is that, in general, the people who bought a 60 in the first place couldn't afford an 85 and therefore can't afford to let it go for less than top dollar. I suspect there are a lot of 60s sitting overpriced for sale, dropping in value all the while, and at some point in the next few months (probably related to the 70D's release again) people selling a 60 will be forced to drop the price significantly. We'll see cars selling in the mid-to-high 40s this summer. As for the 40 kWh version, these are so rare I've only found one for sale, and it was nearly as expensive as an 85 at $63,000, but it was at a dealership, so...

4) Dealerships are screwing up everything. I know this is a popular statement among the Tesla crowd in general lately, but when it comes to used Teslas it's as true as ever. It's painful to read through a sales listing for a used Model S being sold through a dealership. They emphasize the wrong things (Color display! Heated seats! Cup holders!) and completely omit important details like battery size, supercharger enabled or not, air suspension or springs. They list features that are obviously not available (Chrome exhaust tips! Rotary engine! Automatic transmission! Gas sipper!) So you can be sure that they are almost never competent enough to price the car correctly. You can find a 2012 S60 with 30,000 miles and few options priced at $75k, which is ridiculous. This may help keep prices up, but mostly it just confuses and annoys potential buyers.

So, all that said, I'll offer you $48k for your car, gnychis.

 

[tga]

No worries. I am also sure there are people who would pay more than me too!

I think the "big hurdle" drops in value have now occurred. From here on, IMO, you will only see the following drops:
- normal depreciation
- any delayed Autopilot depreciation once the software rolls out later this year (I still think most of this has already hit you)
- redesign or facelift of Model S (I personally don't think this will happen until closer to the realize of the Model 3)
- release of the Model 3 (I think this will be a big hit to value)

That said, it's sunk cost, you have the car, and I personally would hold onto the car rather than trade to any other vehicle. But then, I own my cars for a decade at a time, so I accept such depreciation over a much longer period of use-life.

I think the X release has the potential to be a bloodbath in the used S market, as people sell/trade their S's to buy an X. It depends how many X buyers are new to the Tesla family vs current owners; I don't have a sense for that.

P85 values took a bit of a hit as many P85 owners upgraded to the P85D. I think the S85D is increasing the supply of S85's in the market; I see a fair number of 85's being listed locally with "we're upgrading to AWD" comments.

- - - Updated - - -

My only guess on this is that, in general, the people who bought a 60 in the first place couldn't afford an 85 and therefore can't afford to let it go for less than top dollar.

On the other end of the scale, I think the high end of the market is less price sensitive, and will sell a P85 at whatever it takes to upgrade to the latest and greatest (ie, P85D). The hit to the P85 was hard and fast, whereas the used 60 market will die a death by 1000 cuts.

 

[MsElectric]

So after the tax rebate you paid $84,500 for your car. Your car is worth likely in the late 50s to low 60s. The 70D changed everything. Most people who would want to pay over $65K will likely purchase a 70D and take advantage of about $10K worth of tax rebates for a brand new 2015 car with autopilot and AWD over purchasing one without those features.

If you are selling, the sooner the better as before long you will also be competing with inventory 70D vehicles as well.

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I concur with what others are saying. This might be a harbinger of price crash of early Tesla cars. Here is why:

Last week, I called my local Tesla store to make an inquiry about both inventory cars as well as CPO vehicles. I told them I was looking to pay around $65K and wanted see what they can come up with. They told me my best bet would be the CPO 60KW Model S. I told them I wanted something with more range. They found a CPO 2013 S85 with 35K+ miles on it and they say that vehicle was selling for $69K, the closest to the $65K they can get with a S85. Then they ask me why I didn't go for the 70D? Their reasoning is the 70D will have pretty much most of the option (most things are standard now in the car) of the S85 CPO with better warranty and it's new. After federal and state tax, I would be lower than the 35K+ 2013 Model S85. Moreover, they said that though Model S have very good range degradation, the CPO S85 might not have the full 265 miles anymore. It will be sometime slightly less. My guess would be 255 miles if there is a 3.5% range degradation over the 35K+ miles. Moreover, the new EPA test might put the 70D slightly lower than what it is really. My guess would be 245 miles. So the 25 miles difference between the cars will be much closer to 10-15 miles.

Point is if the CPO is $68K, then tesla probably purchased the car for far cheaper (my guess is probably 50K or so). Adding $5K to this price would be how much I think you would get if wanted to easily get rid of the car. Moreover like everyone else here said, the 70D really hurt the resale value of ALL the previous gen Model S. Even their sales person is steering buyer towards the 70D. And once the 70D Inventory comes out, it will further reduce the resale value of the S85.

My take on this is, I am glad I waited and probably still waiting for a few more years because of the rapid drop in the price of EV. Musk price guarantee for the Model S is only for 3 years. Guess what happens a few more years down the road with better Model S and Model X available? I foresee a price crash on the current Gen Model S. If I am impatient then or the Model 3 is delayed, I might just pick myself up a Model S85 then for dirt cheap compared to today's price. Otherwise, I will continue to wait it out for the Model 3.

 

[stevej119]

Moreover, they said that though Model S have very good range degradation, the CPO S85 might not have the full 265 miles anymore. It will be sometime slightly less. My guess would be 255 miles if there is a 3.5% range degradation over the 35K+ miles. Moreover, the new EPA test might put the 70D slightly lower than what it is really. My guess would be 245 miles. So the 25 miles difference between the cars will be much closer to 10-15 miles.

You are correct that the 85 will no longer have the full 265 mile range and 255 is indeed likely, but you cannot then say the mileage difference will be closer between the cars because the 70 will also degrade. The most rapid degradation is said to happen in the first year, so presumably after a year or two you will be close to the published differences in range between the two cars.

 

[gregincal]

I concur with what others are saying. This might be a harbinger of price crash of early Tesla cars. Here is why:

Last week, I called my local Tesla store to make an inquiry about both inventory cars as well as CPO vehicles. I told them I was looking to pay around $65K and wanted see what they can come up with. They told me my best bet would be the CPO 60KW Model S. I told them I wanted something with more range. They found a CPO 2013 S85 with 35K+ miles on it and they say that vehicle was selling for $69K, the closest to the $65K they can get with a S85. Then they ask me why I didn't go for the 70D? Their reasoning is the 70D will have pretty much most of the option (most things are standard now in the car) of the S85 CPO with better warranty and it's new. After federal and state tax, I would be lower than the 35K+ 2013 Model S85. Moreover, they said that though Model S have very good range degradation, the CPO S85 might not have the full 265 miles anymore. It will be sometime slightly less. My guess would be 255 miles if there is a 3.5% range degradation over the 35K+ miles. Moreover, the new EPA test might put the 70D slightly lower than what it is really. My guess would be 245 miles. So the 25 miles difference between the cars will be much closer to 10-15 miles.

Point is if the CPO is $68K, then tesla probably purchased the car for far cheaper (my guess is probably 50K or so). Adding $5K to this price would be how much I think you would get if wanted to easily get rid of the car. Moreover like everyone else here said, the 70D really hurt the resale value of ALL the previous gen Model S. Even their sales person is steering buyer towards the 70D. And once the 70D Inventory comes out, it will further reduce the resale value of the S85.

My take on this is, I am glad I waited and probably still waiting for a few more years because of the rapid drop in the price of EV. Musk price guarantee for the Model S is only for 3 years. Guess what happens a few more years down the road with better Model S and Model X available? I foresee a price crash on the current Gen Model S. If I am impatient then or the Model 3 is delayed, I might just pick myself up a Model S85 then for dirt cheap compared to today's price. Otherwise, I will continue to wait it out for the Model 3.

Of course it's no different than any other luxury car. The high end car market is driven by features and perception. Nothing about the autopilot hardware (one of the biggest reasons old Model S' are worth less) has anything to do with it being a electric car. It's the same with BMWs and Mercedes. If you are able to pay that much for a car you want the latest features, and more price sensitive buyers are put off by the other costs associated ($600 annual service, really expensive tires, etc). The Mercedes S class generally loses a third of its value after a single year.

 

[ecarfan]

I agree. That kind of depreciation in the S is typical for other cars in its class. Nothing remarkable about it.

I think some people expected Model S used values to stay unrealistically high just because it had no EV competitors. They neglected to factor in the fact that over the past 2+ years Tesla has made many hardware improvements to the S which not only drives demand for the latest version, but causes values to fall for older versions. Nothing surprising about that.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

It's all about supply/demand. The same used S in California will probably be worth less than a used S in Arizona or Texas.

 

[wcfinvader]

Anyone who buys a car...any car and expects the resale price to stay high has made a HUGE investment mistake. Cars lose value. This is why we buy a car and keep it until the wheels fall off. You should see my first car which our Leaf replaced. Brakes completely worn, Tires bald, Front bumper missing, Instrument Panel inoperative, and many more issues (2004 Cavalier btw). That was my first car and it served me well. The Tesla is OUR first car and we hope it serves us just as well as my first car served me. That is the reason you should buy a car and never because of unfounded future resale value.