For those of you who wonder whether Plaid order gets priority and if so, by how much, I did a Bayesian modeling with MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) by using the data in the tracking spreadsheet. The report is attached. It's actually an open-end project required by my class, for which I selected modeling the delivery time for the refreshed Model X, since I'm a long-time diver in this forum. I did this project in a rush so please forgive me if you found errors or limitations. I know there must be a lot of them, plus the bias of the data itself.
Anyway, the conclusion is that Plaid order does get delivery earlier, as expected, but only by an average of 54 days, comparing to Long Range orders. The mean implied from the MCMC is 456 days (Long Range) vs 402 days (Plaid). However, as folks already mentioned earlier, the number of days saving is in a wide range.
I also did the same thing for FSD vs non-FSD orders, which I didn't put in the report. And the result, may be to some's surprise, is that no statistically difference is observed between FSD and non-FSD orders. So seems like adding FSD does not really help in getting the car earlier.
Hope this information is helpful for folks who are considering switching to Plaid or adding FSD in order to get the car sooner. The cutoff time of the information used from the spreadsheet is 4/22. Any newer information is not taken into consideration (I waited to get my project graded before posting it here). As Tesla ramps up the production, I would imagine the actual average delivery time should be less than the modeling results.
I'm more than happy to hear comments and suggestions, particularly for the modeling techniques, as I know it's a rather simple modeling application.
I would lose about 15 miles / 24hrs unplugged in an airport parking lot with Sentry on, checking in the app parodically and in cold weather. (2017 P100D MX)
