Bravo! Hopefully it will shut the blowhard up for a day or two.Lies, damed lies, and statistics... I guess let's go ahead and have that basic arithmetic lesson.
Let's assume a hypothetical market of 1 million EVs that I control 95% of.
Now let's say that market grows in the next year by 50%, to an overall market of 1.5 million. Of the net new 500k cars, I capture 450,000 of them, while my competitors net 50,000.
My market share, as a percentage, is now 93%. Who was it again that "grew more" in this scenario, and by what definition of grew? I produced 450,000 more cars. My competitors, in aggregate, produced 50,000 more. Yet apparently my "declining market share means I grew less than everyone else" in your exact words. The "basic arithmetic" says that's bullshit by any meaningful interpretation of growth.
As I said above - market share decline is a natural consequence of more competition and availability from other manufacturers but is not in and of itself a distress signal. Nor is it a necessarily a sign of anything positive - nobody's in here trying to make a point with Faraday Future because they've increased their market share by 200% as a result of delivering two cars.
But this thread very obviously wasn't meant to be about facts and logic, it's about feelings. When you contribute contrary data points to a thread about feelings, this is what you get:
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Replacement for Model S/X?
- Thread starter tallypwner
- Start date
Many cars can compete in one of these respects. Can you name one that competes in multiple respects at anywhere near the price? Serious question- I'm ready to buy.
Do the math. In your example at 95%, that means you had 950k and the competition had 50k. If the competition grew to 100k from there, they grew by 100%, while you grew by roughly 47%. Sustain similar numbers and eventually your dominant position will be reduced to nothing.
Like I said, basic arithmetic.
I only follow USA auto choices, sorry international folks.
Not interested in marketshare discussions. I'm just discussing consumer info and trends.
My mind is leaning towards American for the tax cuts, or potentially very reliable foreign brands like Porsche and Lexus.
I'm still waiting for a service center to be built in my city so they can repair the damage they caused last time it was in a different service center #Teslalife.
Not interested in marketshare discussions. I'm just discussing consumer info and trends.
My mind is leaning towards American for the tax cuts, or potentially very reliable foreign brands like Porsche and Lexus.
I'm still waiting for a service center to be built in my city so they can repair the damage they caused last time it was in a different service center #Teslalife.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Point being, you’re deliberately ignoring the actual magnitude of the numbers to talk in percentages and pretend this presents a crisis. What I can’t tell is if you actually believe this is a crisis for the company or if you’re just being obtuse to argue.
Another real world example: Rivian’s production rose 250% from 2022 to 2023. Sounds impressive! They went from 20,000 to 50,000 cars!
50,000 cars is ~2.7% of Tesla’s 2023 production. Tesla produced 37 times more cars.
Magnitude matters in the real world. Tesla’s market share will inevitably come down as the market diversifies and matures and gets overall bigger. Very classic and expected trend in emerging tech. This is a good thing for everyone, including Tesla. It’s difficult to take you seriously when you either don’t understand this or pretend not to in pursuit of your “Tesla is doomed” narrative.
As the competition increases the individual market share decreases. That is totally normal and expected. The only way your sales numbers continue to grow is if the whole market grows. For Tesla though, the growth in sales will be by broadening the offering NOT shrinking it down. Look at the iPhone, when it started there was only one, as competition increased the model range was widened to capture more customers at different price levels.
As for Model S, find me a competitor at the price point of $75k-$80k, at the same performance under 4 seconds and the same interior size. ICE or electric.
As for Model S, find me a competitor at the price point of $75k-$80k, at the same performance under 4 seconds and the same interior size. ICE or electric.
Not everyone likes SUVs/Cross overs though, and thats the problem at the moment for people like me. For me there is only 1 positive for SUV's/crossovers and thats the getting in and out of the car. the other benefits people state like "driving view" is null and void when everyone drives one or if your behind a van/Lorry, and many say they are spacious but really i find useable luggage space and rear legroom if anything is worse than many large sedans, and no are way near as big as estates. The only space benefit you have is around your head area but that’s just wasted space.
If I were Tesla I'd offer 4 vehicles and have all new versions every 6-10 years. A small crossover, a midsize crossover, a 3 row SUV, and a traditional pickup truck thing. And every once and a while have a limited run ultra high performance sports halo car thing. Their currently lineup feels old and cheap and gimmicky to me. The Model Y makes the most sense, and is the best seller by far because it's what people want to buy. Everything else is sort of like (well what else can I get for the money that's 0-60 under 4 seconds). That's such a tiny amount of people that want that performance. I've had several high performance cars and I have no desire for an under 4 second 0-60 car.
I think to reiterate the most telling thing about the evolution of the Model S is how low the prices have become in conjunction with inflation. It's not just production efficiency. It's definitely a cheapening of the product. For some, it won't matter at all. They want performance above all else. But for big old guys like myself I like high quality materials, physical buttons and stalks, great ergonomics and reliability. All the boring stuff. My car is something like 420 horsepower and maybe under 5 seconds 0-60 and it's plenty. Never wanted more performance. I think it being lighter than other Model S and RWD gives the sensation of more performance/fun as well.
I think to reiterate the most telling thing about the evolution of the Model S is how low the prices have become in conjunction with inflation. It's not just production efficiency. It's definitely a cheapening of the product. For some, it won't matter at all. They want performance above all else. But for big old guys like myself I like high quality materials, physical buttons and stalks, great ergonomics and reliability. All the boring stuff. My car is something like 420 horsepower and maybe under 5 seconds 0-60 and it's plenty. Never wanted more performance. I think it being lighter than other Model S and RWD gives the sensation of more performance/fun as well.
Tiger
Active Member
Let's remember that Tesla is the EV trailblazer. It had to make cars that a) perform and b) sell, i.e., minimally cost prohibitive and "sleak" for aerodynamics.
Like the saying goes, first make it work, then make it nice.
Now they are in the process of making it nice in a pareto principle way. While they are doing that, they are already fantasizing a completely revamped lineup, which will be implemented with the profits from the cars selling now and in the near future.
Like someone said, show me an all-around better EV than Tesla in any of its classes.
They are coming starting 2024, but not just yet.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Literally every other car maker has a plush, slow, traditional monstrosity of an SUV for fat old Americans. Why not pick one of those instead of trying to make Tesla like every other company? You're clearly not the demographic for this company.
More better faster!
I'm interested in a new Model S/Model X type vehicle but Tesla is focusing 100% on Cybertruck, Roadster, Model 2 and likely Model Y refresh for the next 10 years and it's just a bummer. No interesting products on the horizon for their OG customers.
I don’t deny Tesla still has a larger market share, but I don’t see that being sustained. The rest of the industry is growing faster and will likely sustain that longer. Geometric growth is a thing, it doesn’t take very long to see a leader fall with continued numbers like the ones we see.
As I’ve stated, they’ve only been able to keep their sales momentum with extremely aggressive price cuts and incentives. The cybertruck is a dud. China is moving on from Tesla to local manufacterers. They have no other new products in the pipeline. I guarantee their sales will tank this year. And within the next 5 years or so I expect them to be trailing the competition and no longer be a market leader in any sense (unless the board comes to its senses and ousts Musk before then).
Tiger
Active Member
You mean Tesla can't walk and chew bubblegum at the same time? How many men and how many weeks do you think it takes to refresh a model S or X? /s
islandbayy
Active Member
Honda briefly removed the physical volume knob and got railed in the media for it. They added it back in within a year or two. Tesla seems to be taking the we know what's best for you approach and consumers aren't buying it.
I also like mechanical watches so I'm probably in the minority there. Not everything needs to be haptic touchscreen autonomous. It just feels cheap for old timers.
Their automated service center stuff is a disaster too. Nobody wants to play with an app and some AI bot when your car is bricked.
I also like mechanical watches so I'm probably in the minority there. Not everything needs to be haptic touchscreen autonomous. It just feels cheap for old timers.
Their automated service center stuff is a disaster too. Nobody wants to play with an app and some AI bot when your car is bricked.
Tiger
Active Member
Initial S/X sales were capped by production. Maybe they are doing the same trick here, as soon as the production ramps up, they put the stalks back in? They put the round steering wheel for S/X and if they really need to pull the "demand lever", they might put back in the stalks? Pun intended.
Tesla makes the S/X to fit a different marketplace than the more basic and much smaller 3/y.
People like the looks, status, ride comfort and upgraded ammenities in the bigger, more stylish cars. The Falcon wing doors offer a significant differentation to most other cars on the road. The huge panoramic windshield, adjustable air suspension and more storage appeal to many.
Due to cost, they will not be the volume leaders, but appeal to a more upscale buyer.
Tesla used the profits from the S/X to finance the development of the less expensive 3/Y. Without the S/X there probably would never have been a 3/Y.
When Elon steps out of those rear doors, it is an event. Without those doors the Astromauts would find getting in and out much more difficult
People like the looks, status, ride comfort and upgraded ammenities in the bigger, more stylish cars. The Falcon wing doors offer a significant differentation to most other cars on the road. The huge panoramic windshield, adjustable air suspension and more storage appeal to many.
Due to cost, they will not be the volume leaders, but appeal to a more upscale buyer.
Tesla used the profits from the S/X to finance the development of the less expensive 3/Y. Without the S/X there probably would never have been a 3/Y.
When Elon steps out of those rear doors, it is an event. Without those doors the Astromauts would find getting in and out much more difficult
That's why I don't like seeing them go downmarket with the S and X refreshes. It should be a premium product and not just a bigger Model 3.Tesla makes the S/X to fit a different marketplace than the more basic and much smaller 3/y.
People like the looks, status, ride comfort and upgraded ammenities in the bigger, more stylish cars. The Falcon wing doors offer a significant differentation to most other cars on the road. The huge panoramic windshield, adjustable air suspension and more storage appeal to many.
Due to cost, they will not be the volume leaders, but appeal to a more upscale buyer.
Tesla used the profits from the S/X to finance the development of the less expensive 3/Y. Without the S/X there probably would never have been a 3/Y.
When Elon steps out of those rear doors, it is an event. Without those doors the Astromauts would find getting in and out much more difficult
Tiger
Active Member
Tesla has been downmarket (quality, style) to begin with. They are only now beginning to improve. I believe Tesla improvements will go hand-in-hand with production capacity increases in such a way that they are almost production bound all the time.
My Model S feels more premium than the new ones, largely because of the steering wheel and levers. I think they're mostly Mercedes parts, which is totally cool with me.
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