Reserved today

[corduroy]

I know I am late to this party, and EVERYONE on here will get their Model 3's before me, but I'm still pretty excited to have finally made my reservation! Realistically though, when do you think a non-owner, reserving now, in the mid west, will get their M3? Late 2019? 2020? Never?

 

[whatthe2]

I know I am late to this party, and EVERYONE on here will get their Model 3's before me, but I'm still pretty excited to have finally made my reservation! Realistically though, when do you think a non-owner, reserving now, in the mid west, will get their M3? Late 2019? 2020? Never?

Congrats, I was late to the party as well (Dec. 2016) so you probably aren't too far behind.

Plug your info in here to have a look at an estimated timeframe - Model 3 delivery estimator

 

[talkingevs]

I just reserved on Friday, so I'm in the same boat. I'm hoping my region (NV) moves it up a bit though as it says reservations are saved in line based on their region and time reservation placed....

Honestly, I think we are all looking at early 2019 despite it stating late 2018 on my estimation.

 

[strykeroz]

Honestly, I think we are all looking at early 2019 despite it stating late 2018 on my estimation.

I'm hoping late 2018 delivers when it says for you guys because that means my early 2019 has a better chance of being real too

 

[chr147]

I'm also in Las Vegas. Reserved on 1/24/18. Now to keep myself alive in order to take delivery.

 

[Sandiegodoug]

Worth the wait. Car is fantastic.

 

[johnster007]

I know I am late to this party, and EVERYONE on here will get their Model 3's before me, but I'm still pretty excited to have finally made my reservation! Realistically though, when do you think a non-owner, reserving now, in the mid west, will get their M3? Late 2019? 2020? Never?

I think a three month delay from Tesla estimated date is kind of reasonable. My original window was October-December 2017 and I just configured 2 weeks ago. Hoping to take delivery by Valentines Day but only time will tell. Still no VIN.

 

[Moderatefan]

You'll have to wait only 1yr compared to 2yrs for the most of us and will still likely get yours before anybody outside U.S. who will have been waiting for 3 yrs by then. Consider how lucky you are

 

[h2sux2]

Since you are in the US, I'd say 18months. But considering most people here ordered almost 2yrs ago, and still no car, your wait might not be that bad.

 

[Buddyroe]

Hmmm. I'm an owner and just tried the estimator - simulating that I reserved yesterday. It estimates I will get the car in March. Say what?

 

[ℬête Noire]

Hmmm. I'm an owner and just tried the estimator - simulating that I reserved yesterday. It estimates I will get the car in March. Say what?

You queue jump over all non-owners, even the ones that reserved nearly 2 years ago. What that's asserting is that there have yet to be any non-owners to receive invitations to configure and the expectation that there won't be for another month+.

 

[Sandiegodoug]

I would love to know what percent of owners ordered a 3. Everyone I talk to at the super charger has.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Troy's estimate is about %15. He's got 24K US owner reservations (in cell DU53) on an estimated 160K US owners (that's from memory, not sure where it is in there). Well that's 160K Tesla's sold, and more than 2 official purchases still only allows 2 reservations so it might be a little lower than that?

 

[Sandiegodoug]

So my vin 41xx
Sounds like non owners have a long wait.
Maybe July?

 

[ℬête Noire]

VIN >6000 were being reported appearing in the delivery supply chain in the wild over the weekend I believe (there was one on a lot in AZ?). Troy's new estimated curve is placing the VIN count on Apr 1st between 19K and 20K (see the top of column EA) . So if Tesla can maintain their current ramp we should start seeing non-owner delivers some time mid-April.

 

[Sandiegodoug]

A sevice center manager told me he thought 75% of employees deferred for 35,000 one.
Wonder how that would effect the que?

 

[talkingevs]

I'm also in Las Vegas. Reserved on 1/24/18. Now to keep myself alive in order to take delivery.

We should get our invites about the same time then....

 

[ℬête Noire]

A sevice center manager told me he thought 75% of employees deferred for 35,000 one.
Wonder how that would effect the que?

In a freakin' awesome way as far as I'm concerned...if I can squeeze in on the LR before the SR starts hitting stride.

I assume it might bring a minor glut and push non-owners back down the queue from SRs mid-year when the SR starts coming out, unless they are really holding out for things like the white interior or such? The bigger influence is how many of the owners defer. I don't know if Troy is trusting his sample enough to fold the results in, haven't tried to delved that deep into the formulas, but if I'm reading that spreadsheet right he's seeing about 30% of owners self-reporting on his sheet deferring to something other than the initial LR PUP (of the 1/2 that gave a reason, more-so AWD than SR but also for other options).

 

[vinnie97]

So my vin 41xx
Sounds like non owners have a long wait.
Maybe July?

So you anticipate an December-February estimate (already delayed from November-January) will be delayed to May-July? That's pushing 2-1/4 years from reservation and a free $1000 "loan." :|

VIN >6000 were being reported appearing in the delivery supply chain in the wild over the weekend I believe (there was one on a lot in AZ?). Troy's new estimated curve is placing the VIN count on Apr 1st between 19K and 20K (see the top of column EA) . So if Tesla can maintain their current ramp we should start seeing non-owner delivers some time mid-April.

The present calculations (March) are not commensurate with said curve. Maybe it needs a refresh.

 

[YauKwan]

Woah. You mean as an owner I can put in another 1000 and still skip everyone in line for a second 3?