Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
You can give them fighter aircraft but unless you give them the ammo missiles and bombs that the planes use they are useless. F16s use 20mm. How many thousands of rounds do we give them? Support equipment to process, download and upload that 20mm? AIM-9 missiles how many should we give them? Without the weapons they carry and the support equipment needed to take care of the aircraft the planes are no good. 20mm is a pain to process but not as bad as 30mm. Unless you use NATO air bases to process these aircraft and the weapon systems it won't work
 
Thank you for the response, there is logic in a lot of these points, but some of these points need to be reconsidered given the reality of events on the ground in Ukraine.

The MIG-29s:
We don't really know what Russia is communicating to NATO on transfer of arms, but giving Ukraine some more obsolete MIGs as justification for Nuclear apocalypse seems a bit of a stretch for the Russians. Call their bluff. They have been using the Nuclear card for anything and everything. It's time to throw it back at them: NATO nuclear deterrence. The fact is, the MIG-29 is a capable platform but it's technology is woefully obsolete. The problems is it's missiles utilize a radar guidance system that doesn't have the range to match Russian fighters and more significantly the MIG-29s have to keep the plane pointed (thus it's radar) at the target until it strikes the target. It makes the MIG impossibly vulnerable. They are forced to use sneak attacks (Fly extremely low) to surprise the Russians in order to have a chance at making a shot. They need "Fire and forget" long range missiles in order to compete directly with the Russian fighters. The possibility exists that the MIG could have it's radar suite and missiles upgrade to this capability, but it would take years even in the best of circumstances. The Ukrainians already have MIG-29s and due to their limited capabilities I agree with the Pentagon that the risk/reward for the MIG is not very good. So if we have to take the risks, it might as well be a better jet. The MIGs would still be very useful once Ukrainian air dominance is achieved. They would make for good air to ground missions and hunting for cruise missiles. But air dominance is needed for them to be effective. BTW, I am basing a lot of this off of the Ukrainian pilots words themselves. If you haven't listened to "Juice" and what he as to say about the situation, you should.

F-15s:
The F-15 is a kick ass air superiority fighter. This is what the Ukrainian pilots are asking for. With it's performance and available munitions, this would put Ukrainian pilots on an even playing field with the Russians. The US has lots of them. The C/D models are in the process of being slowly retired in favor of the F-15EX and other fighters (F-35). So we have lots of spare jets to give away. We should do it. Of course there is the training and support. It will probably take longer to train the ground crews then it will the pilots. But it takes the whole crew to make it work. I realize that. But Ukraine has vastly more pilots than planes. That's the point Juice is trying to make. Send the pilots for training now. They can spare them, they only need a few pilots to keep the missions they are currently performing with the MIGs. Send the ground crews with them to train in parallel along side the pilots. This has to be done state-side as there is a war going on. We can provide that help, let's do it.

Time is of the essence. This war has already gone on for more than a month. Had they started the process from day 1, they might be ready by now. Regardless, start now. Don't sell the Ukrainian pilots short, they can learn these fighters faster than you are giving them credit for. Certainly better than risking their lives with the equipment they are flying now.

F-16s:
Also a very capable fighter. Well suited to the defense role in Ukraine (short range). The F-16s could be used as front-line air superiority fighter if F-15s are not available. It can carry a nice suite of missiles. But the F-16 is best used in conjunction with the F-15s. The F-16s can be setup with electronic warfare pods to allow them to fulfill the role of Wild Weasels. For those who don't know what that is, the F-16 Wild Weasels go after SAM and Radar installations. Provide cover from these ground based missiles while the F-15s provide fighter cover. They work best as a team. Let's give them the hardware. The F-16 is a relatively easy, intuitive fighter to fly. It may take longer to train the ground crews than the pilots, but got to get started.

Give Ukraine both planes, as they work best as a team. Train them in the US or some other safe territory. Do so expeditiously, and these new fighter squadrons could be ready to fly in as soon as a month. Once Ukraine can achieve air dominance, they stand a real chance of pushing the Russians out of there country.

F-22:
Clearly, the F-22 is a bigger ask. The biggest problem is they are chocked full of state of the art technology and is classified. Our enemies would love to have there hands on one. To have one of these shot down over Russian held territory would be a significant blow to the west. However, this should still be seriously considered. The F-22 could achieve total air supremacy over Ukraine on it's own, with probably a dozen or more fighters. These crews would take the longest to train. And is way more expensive to maintain than other fighters. The Ukrainian probably cannot afford to maintain even a small fleet, but if the US subsidizes the effort, they probably could. And we should subsidize them. We are outsourcing the fighting and security of Europe against the Russians, the least we could do is give them some good planes while they are spilling blood in the name of the west. But the F-22 can do almost everything from AWACs, Air to Ground, Air To Air superiority, Electronic warfare Air to SAM, and etc. If used with other jets, they can provide top cover and targeting while the other fighters do all of the actual fighting. It can be a true force multiplier, and thus should at least be considered. Perhaps trained for and held back if its determined to be needed. As far as limited supply, yes there are not that many of them. Ukraine would only need 12-20 fighters to do the job. The US only has 187 operational, but they are already looking to retire dozens of them. I can provide the links if necessary, but the point is the Airforce is already planning to thin the fleet. This would be a great way to do it. I know Israel would howl about Ukraine getting them when they were told no, but hey Ukraine is in a war for it's survival right now, Israel is not.

Alternatives:
There are other non-NATO but capable fighter jets out there. The SAAB Gripen comes to mind. Not battle tested, but has a lot of the technology needed to take on Russian fighters. I don't know that there is any inventory to speak of, so that's a big issue with it. They need fighters now. There may well be other fighters out there that can compete with Russian fighters. The biggest deal is to be able to launch decent fire and forget missiles with respectable range. The planes need to exist and not already allocated to critical needs. I don't know of any country in this situation of a bunch of modern fighter jets sitting around other than the US. But it needs to be explored and perhaps there is a trade available...

Abrams Tanks:
Yes this is a pig of tank. Newer versions this tank use APU (Auxiliary Power Units) so do not in fact need to consume huge amounts of fuel just idling. That was an Iraqi war issue and is no longer relevant. In the end I am not sure how important tanks really are to the Ukrainians. They are constantly being re-supplied with T-72s by the Russians themselves. But, the Abrams when used effectively can be a powerful defensive force. They can take out other tanks miles away before the enemy tank can even get in range. Much like artillery. But even Abrams are vulnerable to bombing by jets and drones. So if Ukraine doesn't achieve Air Dominance, they will be vulnerable. Ukraine may be better off with Bradley fighting vehicles or other light to medium armor. The Ukrainians seemed to be very effective at utilizing the BTR-4, even in the most dire of circumstances (Mariupol). So perhaps others would be better. Training needs to be done, but on the order of a month or two, seems doable in wartime urgency.

The broader point:
This all needs to start now. No matter what happens, this war is not going to be over by May 9th. This war started in 2014 and has been going on for years. It is only now reaching a hot stage, but it will continue until Ukraine is dominated or can fully defend itself militarily. The Russian military still has a lot of firepower left and is reconsolidating that power to renew an offensive from the east. Don't assume they are a totally spent force. No matter what Russia peace Russia promises, it's not worth the paper it's printed on. The only way to guaranty Ukraine's territory and sovereignty is with a military to back that up. Ukraine does not have that military force currently, or Russia wouldn't have invaded. They have made a heroic stand and done more than most thought possible. But this war is not over. It will continue to grind on until it can be decisively concluded. There may be cease fires and compromises but only to suite further Russian aggression. Ukraine can be a huge European power, as a check on Russia. This will greatly benefit the rest of Europe and the US. We must help them achieve it. The sooner overwhelming firepower can be put under Ukrainian control, the sooner this war will end and the fewer lives will be lost.

I posted a link to a thread from retired US general Mark Hertling yesterday who lays out the argument why it would be a bad idea to give the Ukrainians a lot of sophisticated western equipment now. He's an ex tanker so that's his expertise. He thinks the Ukrainians could learn to fight the M-1 Abrams in a week or so, but it would take months to train the mechanics, even with a crash course. The western military equipment is very different and often vastly more complex than Russian equipment. Learning to operate it is not the hard part. Training people who are already working 100 hours a week maintaining what Ukraine has would be impossible in the middle of a full blown war.

Hertling said that a crash course on just turret maintenance for the M-1 was a month. Maintenance for the engine and lower chassis is at least another month.

One reason the Russians may not want the Ukrainians to get the NATO MiGs is that those planes have probably been modified to carry NATO ordinance which is in abundant supply and the Ukrainian MiGs have a limited supply of missiles.
 

In that pocket are the 126th Separate Guards Coastal Defense Brigade and the 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade. Approximate strength 2 BTGs.

UAWarData

The Russians have a large force, one of the most concentrated in the country west of Kherson. They haven't moved of a week, which is indicative of supply problems. The high concentration of HQs is odd. That could also mean that those are shattered remnants of destroyed units. Probably broken trying to take Mykolaiv.
 
That is halfway to a coherent strategy, be careful you may get a call from some idiots in washington offering you a consulting contract.

On the same note, every country bordering Russia needs something like this Israeli army to build laser-based shield against missiles

Furhtermore, it should be configured in such a way that it can eliminate tanks, missiles, and aircraft.

Wouldn't hurt if the laser could vaporize infantry, too.

Along the borders they should lay The Most Effective Weapon on the Modern Battlefield is Concrete - Modern War Institute in such a way that anyone coming through is slowed down enough to allow time to focus crosshairs on them.

And it should be autonomous with sufficient redundancy planning.
 
On the same note, every country bordering Russia needs something like this Israeli army to build laser-based shield against missiles

Furhtermore, it should be configured in such a way that it can eliminate tanks, missiles, and aircraft.

Wouldn't hurt if the laser could vaporize infantry, too.

Along the borders they should lay The Most Effective Weapon on the Modern Battlefield is Concrete - Modern War Institute in such a way that anyone coming through is slowed down enough to allow time to focus crosshairs on them.

And it should be autonomous with sufficient redundancy planning.
Laser-based attack and defence systems have been in development for many, many years but hardly ever in actual use. It's one of those things that's always "a year away".
Whatever you might think, they are not the magic pill and have several drawbacks, particularly if you wanted to deploy them in this type of conflict.

Israel's Iron Dome air defence system, however, is very effective and would probably make a big difference if they would agree to supply them to Ukraine. The only issue there is that there's a very large area to cover with it, especially as Russia doesn't really care much about where their missiles and shells are targeted half the time. Would be useful to have around Odessa and Kyiv, Kharkif and in the west protecting the supply routes from Poland.
 
Last edited:
I consider Putin a cross between Stalin & Hitler, who seems determined to surpass both in level of cruelty & barbarism. You know, Putin’s also a big fan of Ivan the Terrible, so his interest in his historical roots of hideous torture does go way back.
As long as NATO’s attitude of “don’t upset Putin...” continues, it would likely get worse. Now is the time to start suppling Ukraine with crippling offensive weapons to take the fight to Russia.
If cruise missiles can be launched from Russia into Ukraine, then the reverse is also a fair game. If Russia is not feeling serious pain, they would punish Ukraine for as long as possible. I monitor the situation on russian losses on russialosses.com and hope their missiles end soon
 
  • Like
Reactions: jbcarioca
Laser-based attack and defence systems have been in development for many, many years but hardly ever in actual use. It's one of those things that's always "a year away".
Whatever you might think, they are not the magic pill and have several drawbacks, particularly if you wanted to deploy them in this type of conflict.

Israel's Iron Dome air defence system, however, is very effective and would probably make a big difference if they would agree to supply them to Ukraine. The only issue there is that there's a very large area to cover with it, especially as Russia doesn't really care much about where their missiles and shells are targeted half the time. Would be useful to have around Odessa and Kyiv, Kharkif and in the west protecting the supply routes from Poland.

I think we need to get past the "it's too hard to make a reusable rocket" mentality. Such system can be made and it can be incrementally improved alongside other proven solutions. Maybe it could use FSD vision.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jbcarioca
I think we need to get past the "it's too hard to make a reusable rocket" mentality. Such system can be made and it can be incrementally improved alongside other proven solutions. Maybe it could use FSD vision.
I've worked with lasers in various fields for over 40 years so I have a good understanding of this technology and there are just some particularly difficult obstacles to overcome when it comes to a directed energy weapon of any sort. They were and are a money-pit so as long as there are conventional alternatives which do a reasonable job and come in under budget, that's what's going to be used on the battlefield and in the air.

I'm sure Elon could find a way to make them work, but he's not working at DARPA (AFAIK).
 
Images coming in from Borodyanka. Looks like no one has made it alive who was left there.

When russians we're approaching Vyborg in 1940 and had claimed that the area was theirs, all the Finns left and houses were set on fire on the way out. Even then, some people were left behind and ended up dead or at camps in Russia.

Finns knew what to expect from Russian invaders.
 
Last edited:
I've had similar thoughts about the redeployment of the troops pulled out of the north
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

Throwing badly mauled units back into action is like trying to run a marathon with a broken leg. It's not only going to hurt, it could lead to permanent damage.

By normal military measures the units that fought in the north are a spent force. Even Stalin would pull them out of action to rebuild, but Putin is sending them back into the fray. They are depleted and in some cases broken now, trying to use them for anything but emergency second tier defense (in a very bad defensive scenario) will likely decimate them.

Another thread on the state of the Russian army
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

I have read this elsewhere, the Russians have mobilized anyone left in the occupied Donbas to be cannon fodder and they have been throwing them at the Ukrainians in WW I style mass charges. Another form of genocide.
 
The problem with the SAAB Gripen is that the current Swedish Govt. is probably way too spineless to agree to giving Gripens. This could probably only happen if Sweden gets absolutely 100% security guarantees from NATO or the US. Sweden would probably also need to somehow provide planes from its existing air force. I could be wrong, but I don't think there are any Gripens in storage somewhere.

Gripen might be the 4th gen fighter that is the easiest to service and maintain and also has the shortest turn-around time at the improvised bases the Ukrainians are probably using.

But this could also mean that the US or some other country would have to supplement the Swedish Air Force until SAAB can replace the Gripens if they are somehow provided to Ukraine...
I'm definitely not an expert. Still, the Brazilian program could be a model fro the longer term Ukraine solution, assuming Ukraine can somehow survive the present hostilities. The versatility and support simplicity of the Gripen make it an almost obvious choice. In the meantime there are plenty of obvious choices now, mostly with US source and supply. All of those do require much more robust support than could be deployed quickly. For quick deployment there seem to be no alternative than more MIG those are not rare.

I do suspect the immediate important issues are command and control help, plus high-altitude surface to air missiles and drones (loitering can help. If they are to survive do they not need to be able to destroy logistical support of the Russian forces in Crimea, Belarus and Russia? Somehow the fight needs to be offensive if this si to end favorably.

Is that not true? It seems NATO and US military people have that sort of conclusion, but politically such a thing is fraught. The world needs to face reality.
Anyway, Sweden has long been really efficient in military tactical and strategic solutions. Were those resources somehow to be deployed many equations would change.

When Putin's stated opinions and goals have been clear ever since he was in Saint Petersburg I really cannot understand how the world keeps dithering. He'll never stop until the world stops him. Ukraine cannot do it alone. No single country can.

I have been in too many war zones even though I have never been a military person. Ones like this one never end until the aggressors are stopped or the defenders are obliterated.

Even those have festering resentments that can arise decades or even centuries later. In this one the NATO members and non-member allies have thus far kept Imperial Russia contained. That is only stoppable with overwhelming strength and unshakable resolve. Northern Europeans all understand history. The North and South Americans almost always fail to understand. They maintain their ignorance of China and nearly all of Asia. Now all that ignorance has combined with greed fro cheap fossil fuels.

Sorry for my rant. it is probably unhelpful.
 
Images coming in from Borodyanka. Looks like no one has made it alive who was left there.

When russians we're approaching Vyborg in 1940 and had claimed that the area was theirs, all the Finns left and houses were set on fire on the way out. Even then, some people were left behind and ended up dead or at camps in Russia.

Finns knew what to expect from Russian invaders.


And they are now planning to vote in Parliament whether to apply for NATO membership.