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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Really, you think US had nothing to do with sudden no confidence motion a month after Ukraine war ?

No wonder it’s so easy for CIA to fool us. You probably believe CIA stories about all other coups they have engineered.


I highly doubt it. Every country does what is best for its ruling class.
Please, if you want to discuss Pakistan politics start another thread somewhere.
 
While the US has interfered in the affairs of other countries, I see no evidence the US is interfering with Pakistan right now. I don't see where there is any potential leader of Pakistan who would be better for US interests than the current leadership. From an American perspective there are no great options with Pakistan.

It's an old trope of leaders who want to stay in power to accuse a power that a large chunk of the population hates that they are trying to overthrow the government.
I was watching a documentary on 9-11 attacks on Netflix. It is crazy that Russia was indirectly responsible for 9-11!

What started as a misadventure in 1979 in Afghanistan (ahem, no lessons learned since then, we all see…) ultimately led to the advent of the Taliban, with full state support from Pakistan, led to Al Qaida, and 9-11.

The US, went all-in on Afghanistan and Pakistan with Reagan, and is now fully out of both. Like wdolson said, there are no good options in Pakistan right now. Imran Khan was just using political rhetoric to discredit the opposition. Not that the opposition is any good either. They are opportunists, and the history of Pakistan is one of short sighted opportunism.

Which is why no single Prime Minister has ever completed his full 5 year term, ever.
 
Really, you think US had nothing to do with sudden no confidence motion a month after Ukraine war ?

No wonder it’s so easy for CIA to fool us. You probably believe CIA stories about all other coups they have engineered.

Chief, that dude Imran lost the support of Pakistani military LAST YEAR. This whole chain of motions started then, not just now.

He was a bit too naive and arrogant to oppose Pak military’s choice for the intelligence chief. Pak military who are the king makers and king breakers, decided it was time to break Imran. They tacitly signaled support to the opposition to do what they usually do in Pakistan - topple the government.

Really, I think YOU are the naive one to just swallow Pakistani propaganda. Imran repeatedly insinuated US involvement without ever showing any proof. If he really did have proof, he would have shouted it from the top of a building into a megaphone. He did not do that. End of the story.
 

Did you even read your own linked article ?

We do know that the language and tone of the communication were such that the National Security Committee termed it “blatant interference” in Pakistan’s internal affairs and recommended sending a strong message through diplomatic channels.
 
Please, if you want to discuss Pakistan politics start another thread somewhere.
Actually … very much Ukraine related.

Russia has lambasted "another attempt of shameless interference" by the United States in the internal affairs of Pakistan, adding that it sought to punish a "disobedient" Imran Khan.

There is definitely more to this than it appears at first glance. As a long time Pak observer I just hope Imran will not meet the same fate as Zia-ul-Haq, Zulfikar Bhutto or Benazir Bhutto.
 
Various reports that Russians have used a drone to drop a chemical substance in Mariopol, some say sarin


and

 
Various reports that Russians have used a drone to drop a chemical substance in Mariopol, some say sarin


and


😡 Good lord.
 
Did you even read your own linked article ?
We do know that the language and tone of the communication were such that the National Security Committee termed it “blatant interference” in Pakistan’s internal affairs and recommended sending a strong message through diplomatic channels.
The group calling it "blatant interference" is chaired by Imran (the prime minister himself). It's himself and his supporters making that claim. There have been no independent analysis that claims the same or any other such evidence of US interference.
National Security Council (Pakistan) - Wikipedia

And yes, I quoted that passage myself, which you have ignored. Here's another effort. Here's the whole part I quoted, so you don't just delete and ignore it.

BOLD PART MY EMPHASIS:
"It later emerged that these ‘revelations’ were in fact claims based on a routine diplomatic cable that had referenced remarks made by a US state representative on the possible outcomes of a vote of no-confidence against Mr Khan and what they could mean for Pakistan. We do know that the language and tone of the communication were such that the National Security Committee termed it “blatant interference” in Pakistan’s internal affairs and recommended sending a strong message through diplomatic channels.

Apart from that, it did not seem there was any imminent threat to Pakistan’s national security. However, going by the self-righteous fury evident in Mr Khan’s recent speeches, one would think it is no longer contestable whether a foreign conspiracy is actually in play or if he has just made a mountain out of a foreign diplomat’s poorly chosen words."

Stop ignoring the fact it is unsubstantiated that this whole no confidence vote was US orchestrated (just a single cable where a diplomat may have a made a vague threat is very much not evidence of such)!

Another recent article:
"Most analysts believe Mr Khan is deliberately exaggerating the contents of a diplomatic cable, sent by the Pakistani ambassador in Washington, reportedly passing on a warning that there would be "consequences" if Mr Khan remained in power."

If you want hypocrisy look no further than Imran Khan's government and supporters (and this is strong evidence supporting @_Redshift_ 's point above about him losing military support last year):
"It's believed a rift between the army and Imran Khan emerged last year, leading to the military withdrawing its support for his slender ruling coalition.
...
Many critics of Imran Khan, who have often faced harassment from the intelligence services for criticising the army's support for his government, noted the sudden change in approach by his followers.
Some remarked on the hypocrisy, given their earlier praise for the army, whilst others welcomed the apparent newfound belief in civilian supremacy."
Imran Khan supporters point finger over downfall
 
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The group calling it "blatant interference" is chaired by Imran (the prime minister himself). It's himself and his supporters making that claim.
Yes, he was the head of government. Americans believe their own government propaganda. Nothing others say will ever be proof enough … even though CIA has engineered coup in dozens of countries by their own admission / declassified material.

 
Yes, he was the head of government. Americans believe their own government propaganda.
And we should believe Pakistani government propaganda instead?
Nothing others say will ever be proof enough … even though CIA has engineered coup in dozens of countries by their own admission / declassified material.


It's a diplomatic cable written by their own (Pakistani) diplomat that paraphrased an earlier conversation with a US senior official, sent on March 7th, a day before the opposition submitted a no confidence vote (how convenient).
No foreign government was named in that meeting, but the media persons were informed that a Pakistani envoy was told by a senior official of the host country that they had issues with Prime Minister Khan’s foreign policy, especially his visit to Russia and the stance on the ongoing Ukrainian war.

The Pakistani envoy was further conveyed that the future trajectory of relations between the two countries was contingent upon the fate of the no-confidence motion that the opposition parties were then planning to bring against the prime minister. The envoy was warned of serious implications if Prime Minister Khan survived the no-trust vote.

The cable was reportedly sent on March 7, a day before the opposition submitted the no-confidence motion and requisitioned a National Assembly session for voting on it.

Meanwhile, it has separately emerged that the cable was sent by Pakistan’s then ambassador to United States Asad Majeed on the basis of his meeting with Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu.

Ambassador Majeed has now moved to Brussels for taking up his new assignment and has been replaced by Ambassador Masood Khan.

Other former diplomats question the account, especially the alleged language used:
A couple of Pakistan’s former envoys to the United States told Dawn American officials usually did not brandish threats during official meetings though their tone would vary from situation to situation.

Besides, countries routinely keep expressing displeasure or concern over others’ actions in bilateral engagements.

They said that even if threats were made in extreme situations, that was done in a subtle manner and, more importantly, a plausible deniability is maintained. “They will certainly not do so in the presence of note takers,” one of them quipped.

And there was zero evidence of a rift between the countries afterwards (even with the US official in question), suggesting there was nothing significant there:
"Even Ambassador Majeed thanked Mr Lu on Twitter for participation in an embassy event on March 16."

It's pretty clear form both accounts though, that the US never sent a letter, at most it was an informal conversation where the characterization was given by the Pakistani side.
"Meanwhile, the US State Department said on Wednesday that no US government agency or official had sent a letter to Pakistan on the current political situation in the country."
PM discloses contents of ‘threat letter’

Meanwhile, it's been long known that due to the Pakistan's military's rift with Imran Khan, he may be out by March. Here's an article from late last year, noting the early signs were his party being defeated in his stronghold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, suggesting he may be kicked out in March.
Trending news: Will Imran Khan government fall by March? Speculation of change in attitude of Pakistan Army intensifies - Hindustan News Hub

But according to you, we should instead believe a conspiracy about a US coup that is all based on a Pakistani diplomat's third party accounting of a conversation with a US official (in a cable sent by him conveniently a day before the tabling of no confidence motion), instead of Pakistani domestic factors that have been boiling for at least months (of which it is easy to find evidence of independently, even ones predicting Imran would be kicked out as a result).
 
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Wonder if they could instil some infighting by pranking with Russia's foreign accounts, those which have multiple authorized users: display various (fake) withdrawals (or transfers) of huge amounts of funds from the foreign accounts and cause mistrust and infighting. For example, huge (not real) money transfers to different military and political and oligarc leaders (foreign accounts) and watch how they try to deny them. As accounts are seized, they would have no actual means to verify. Real life prisoner's dilemma.
It's how you break up criminal organisations, break the trust, the network fails and there's infighting. Historically, infighting is often a key reason for states/gangs failing, wars being lost. Who in Putin's circle trusts anyone? Build on this. Let a few people seem to have favoured status with the west, able to use money, travel and yachts and others tightened down on. Suspicions, jealousy and paranoia will do the rest. Best if done to plausible candidates who would have the effect of splintering groups along pre-existing fault lines.
 
It's how you break up criminal organisations, break the trust, the network fails and there's infighting. Historically, infighting is often a key reason for states/gangs failing, wars being lost. Who in Putin's circle trusts anyone? Build on this. Let a few people seem to have favoured status with the west, able to use money, travel and yachts and others tightened down on. Suspicions, jealousy and paranoia will do the rest. Best if done to plausible candidates who would have the effect of splintering groups along pre-existing fault lines.

The more I think of it, instead of fake transactions, they should be real. All money should be transferred to the 2nd in line and see how long he remains standing. Even his personal doctor and chefs. Then to the next and eventually see who remains holding the bag.
 
"From plans for liquefied natural gas terminals in northern Germany, Finland and France to potential new routes through Spain and the Mediterranean, Europe is striving to rid itself of its dependence on Russian gas, though experts say the task will take years to complete."
 
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"About 25 girls and women aged 14 to 24 were systematically raped during the occupation in the basement of one house in Bucha. Nine of them are pregnant," she said. "Russian soldiers told them they would rape them to the point where they wouldn't want sexual contact with any man, to prevent them from having Ukrainian children."
 
😡 Good lord.
I'm afraid these are standard tactics for Russia, honed in Syria.

Bomb the cities into rubble, targetting especially the hospitals and the civilians.

Then drop chemical agents on the bits that still won't surrender.

So, the news of chemical agents being used in Maripol coming out of Ukraine is at least plausible.
 
The lever the US has used to punish Russia since the 80s is not working right now. The US manipulates world oil production to drive down the price.
The US doesn't have that kind of control over world oil production. And it sometimes works to drive prices up, just look at Biden's first 100 days.

When the war started the US started getting serious with Iran about coming to a new nuclear deal so their production could be turned back to full. The US was also looking at lifting sanctions on Venezuela. If those two countries are exporting again, the world price will drop and Russia will have trouble making money selling oil.
I agree Iran and Venezuela would make a difference. The reasons behind their sanctions haven't gone away, simply ignoring them would be very political in the US. And VZ is a dumpster fire, production fell steadily under Chavez and then Maduro, so it's not clear how much they could help.

Rationing is not going to work politically.
True, as I said. But 150-200/bbl is also political suicide. So the politicians pretend to act while letting Russian oil continue to flow. I just want people to call out the politicians (and journalists) for paying lip service while doing nothing.

Russia's biggest oil export port is shut down because of the war. So they are not shipping out that much oil.
Not really. Dallas Fed expected a 3m bpd reduction, but saw "leaks" even in mid-March:

What changed is that much of the Russian oil that continues to be exported from Baltic and Black Sea ports at steep discounts is not delivered to refiners, as is customary. Instead, trading houses are purchasing the oil and keeping it in commercial storage in Europe, from where it may be potentially resold, bypassing financial sanctions. Buying oil for storage is not prohibited under current sanctions.

Politicians know a true embargo means unbearable prices or rationing. So they allow leaks, while uselessly posturing.