Russia/Ukraine conflict

[iPlug]

Think it thru folks. The minute Russia deploys a nuclear weapon, the repercussions turn them into an even more impoverished North Korea.

All major economies would be forced into a oil import ban, and their economy becomes nothing. Instant complete brain drain. Chaos overnight. You wouldn't even need to attack them.

3-12 years from now when the oil & gas market capitulates to permanent decline(like coal), they would simply disintegrate into nothingness.

Hell, that already may be their exact future as of today. It's just masked by this last great global blob of oil & gas profits.

You feel China and India would ban Russian oil in the event of a tactical nuke? That would be a just response, but I’m skeptical they would proceed as such. Condemnation, likely, but actions - much less sure.

 

[nativewolf]

Can anyone tell me what is Russian's gain from sabotaging their own only bargaining chip? Wouldn't it benefit Ukraine the most if the pipeline is completely destroyed? Then the West can support them indefinitely without worrying about gas as a bargaining tool....

I don't know, that's my take...strategically them pipelines got to go to weaken Russia more than to strengthen since it's one of their most valuable cash cows from the EU.

It's a good question. In particular in light of the loss of both NS II lines. I've heard that the repair bill would be 10 billion but I don't know if that is a guess or a good answer or way way off.

The very next day Poland and Norway inaugerated their new pipeline to carry northsea gas to Poland.

There is a meme floating around of the gas bubbles escaping onto the surface of the Baltic and it slightly photo shopped to look like whirlpool and that being Germany's 30 year energy policy. Truly they look like idiots for shackling themselves to Russia. Southern Europe has a bill to pay..don't think that bill won't be presented.

In any case ruskies have lost negotiating power with northern europe.

I like gword's reply. That makes the most sense so far.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You feel China and India would ban Russian oil in the event of a tactical nuke? That would be a just response, but I’m skeptical they would proceed as such. Condemnation, likely, but actions - much less sure.

It's my understanding we came close over just the last few weeks with each of them. I think the US has a lot more pressure it can bring if it wants to and the EU would certainly galvanize if a nuke is deployed.

Then we'd have to go around to the rest of Asia to join the embargo.

 

[nativewolf]

This is an interesting take.

Pipeline company employee here. My guess is so that Gazprom can declare force majeure. This sets up the Russians/Gazprom in a more favorable legal position related to denying service. In North America, a customer who has contracted for pipeline transportation capacity under a take-or-pay contract may still be on the hook to pay the pipeline under force majeure, even in the event the pipeline is totally shut in. I’m assuming something similar exists in the Nordstrom’s contracts. Self sabotage is obviously an extra wrinkle but we know how the Russians will respond to those allegations.

 

[RobStark]

Perhaps I did not explain myself clearly enough. Lenin wanted to export Communism globally, fulfilling Marx/Engels visions. He did not advocate "Russian" domination but did advocate Communism with the USSR as the prime model.

Putin, on the other hand, is explicitly seeking Russian control and domination of every place Russia ever controlled, including Alaska and parts as far south as Fort Ross (they DID build it) and parts of Sonoma and Mendocino counties of California. That is a huge difference form anything the USSR was about, which was global Communist control, not Russian.

Sorry @Artful Dodger , on this one I was correct. At least Lenin was Russian, unlike so many USSR leading lights.

Global Communism directed and controlled from Moscow or Russia World directed and controlled from Moscow is six of one, half a dozen of the other.

 

[GWord]

It's a good question. In particular in light of the loss of both NS II lines. I've heard that the repair bill would be 10 billion but I don't know if that is a guess or a good answer or way way off.

$10B might be a little steep, assuming that’s USD. My guess is that the offshore part of NS2 or NS1 probably cost in that range for the whole of construction. In my experience, a subsea rupture repair for those lines is going to be in the 8 to 9 figure range, USD. Depending on the nature of the damage they may be able to “cheaply” cut out the damaged section, stab on some mechanical connectors and insert a new spool.

 

[kabin]

Russian brain drain started months ago after the start of the attack. And they already cut off ties with most world trade. Post use of nuke(s), countries like India and China might pull back trade for a few months or a year but they will come running back holding their nose for a bargain trade.

Putin is backed into a corner without a good option minus falling on the sword.

 

[GWord]

I’m far from an expert on the nuke issue but I’ve seen some actual experts say that the tactical nukes require some transport and setup to use on Ukraine. Presumably the west has communicated to Ru that the instant they move from their current spots we’d consider targeting them? If Ru is going to pull nuke shenanigans, my money would be on them striking a nuke power plant in Ukraine and then doing their typical blaming on someone else. Not sure what benefit they get from that but I have the same question about a single tactical nuke.

 

[JRP3]

All major economies would be forced into a oil import ban

Where would all those economies then get the replacement oil from?

 

[kabin]

I had to google small tactical nukes to learn the smallest was a US 20 ton weapon from the 1950's fired from a recoilless gun. If it's in the arsenal, Russia could deploy a tiny tactical nuclear weapon just to show resolve and demonstrate the Russian military backs Putin.

 

[bkp_duke]

Where would all those economies then get the replacement oil from?

A nuclear strike would cause a global depression (not recession). Oil demand would plummet. Russia supplies something like 10% of world old demand.

Prices would go up, demand would go down, but it's not like 1/3 of the world oil supply would be cut off.

 

[wdolson]

So, you think there is no move that can be made to deter Russia from using tactical nuclear weapons. And I excluded appeasement as noted in my post. That is a non-starter. Not that I have any say in it, but even at the risk of where I live being at risk through rounds of escalation, we have to stand firm and defeat them. The level of evil is too great. I don’t use that word lightly.

At this point the only thing stopping Russia is whatever the west has told Putin will come down on them if they use them. I suspect India and China have also told Putin that they would move away from Russia if they use nukes.

I suspect the plan from the west is to put tremendous economic pressure on anyone ho still wants to do business with Russia if they use nukes. China and India are not going to risk being shunned by the west.

India also has another incentive for shunning any country that uses nukes. They want to make sure Pakistan is unwilling to even think about it.

Think it thru folks. The minute Russia deploys a nuclear weapon, the repercussions turn them into an even more impoverished North Korea.

All major economies would be forced into a oil import ban, and their economy becomes nothing. Instant complete brain drain. Chaos overnight. You wouldn't even need to attack them.

3-12 years from now when the oil & gas market capitulates to permanent decline(like coal), they would simply disintegrate into nothingness.

Hell, that already may be their exact future as of today. It's just masked by this last great global blob of oil & gas profits.

Since the invasion the US has increased oil production, but there will be a lot of public support for deep cuts even if it hurts their economies.

You feel China and India would ban Russian oil in the event of a tactical nuke? That would be a just response, but I’m skeptical they would proceed as such. Condemnation, likely, but actions - much less sure.

India's been buying oil at bargain prices and their storage facilities are almost full. China has probably been hoarding oil too. The diplomatic and economic pressure to shun Russia will be massive.

I’m far from an expert on the nuke issue but I’ve seen some actual experts say that the tactical nukes require some transport and setup to use on Ukraine. Presumably the west has communicated to Ru that the instant they move from their current spots we’d consider targeting them? If Ru is going to pull nuke shenanigans, my money would be on them striking a nuke power plant in Ukraine and then doing their typical blaming on someone else. Not sure what benefit they get from that but I have the same question about a single tactical nuke.

The US knows where Russian storage facilities are have been watching them. There has been no activity.

I had to google small tactical nukes to learn the smallest was a US 20 ton weapon from the 1950's fired from a recoilless gun. If it's in the arsenal, Russia could deploy a tiny tactical nuclear weapon just to show resolve and demonstrate the Russian military backs Putin.

The smallest Russian nuke is either 50 or 100 KT if I remember right. The small nukes were discontinued because they were a massive maintenance headache. They needed rebuilding about once a year.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Where would all those economies then get the replacement oil from?

Russia exports about ~6Mb/d, that's 6% of the 2019 global total peak demand. Letting half that trickle to shadier corners of the world at <1/2 price during the 12-36 months of highest demand between now and 2027 would be totally fine.

After that point permanent disruption would have taken a hold of demand levels.

I guess they export a bunch of refined products too. That's a big problem.

Nobody's pumping at anywhere near peak levels today and supposedly this economy is "running hot". That loss of 6Mb/d isn't an insurmountable problem.

 

[Tiger]

I saw the tweet below from Kamil Galeev earlier today and it disturbed me. Seeing your post, unfortunately is reinforcing of both messages. I would really appreciate the views of the posters here as you all have great insights. Would that we could find a way forward to prevent this that does not involve any appeasement; that is a non-starter, as it will just enable further bullying.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575510055369293824

Perhaps, if retaliation is needed, it should not come from the US, but from former Russian allies. India, Turkey, Germany, etc. Turkey has been eager to fly into war in the past too.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Perhaps, if retaliation is needed, it should not come from the US, but from former Russian allies. India, Turkey, Germany, etc. Turkey has been eager to fly into war in the past too.

When was Germany a Russian ally?

 

[Tiger]

She flat out refused to participate even when threatened with failing the entire course. A few others resisted after a couple of rounds, but almost all did what they were told. She's so resistive to doing anything opposed to her internal ethical compass she can't get her mind around why anyone would participate, but she's accepts it intellectually as one of those things domesticated primates do.

Not sure how the Milgram experiment accounts for everyone's inner compass - as we know, it is different for everyone. Some people won't drive past the speed limit even when there is no police, and vice versa, and so forth. There is probably some gaussian in following the compass and also the compasses are probably distributed in some manner depending on environment and inherited tendencies (ocd, etc.).

 

[Tiger]

When was Germany a Russian ally?

Look at Gasprom. It is/was the biggest single ally. Germany is still not giving significant armament to Ukraine.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Look at Gasprom. It is/was the biggest single ally.

I think that you are going to be pretty alone in drawing that conclusion...

 

[wdolson]

When was Germany a Russian ally?

Last time a unified Germany was an ally of Russia/the USSR was June 21, 1941

Not sure how the Milgram experiment accounts for everyone's inner compass - as we know, it is different for everyone. Some people won't drive past the speed limit even when there is no police, and vice versa, and so forth. There is probably some gaussian in following the compass and also the compasses are probably distributed in some manner depending on environment and inherited tendencies (ocd, etc.).

I gave an example of someone who is an exception. However enough people will conform that it is a problem.

Look at Gasprom. It is/was the biggest single ally. Germany is still not giving significant armament to Ukraine.

Under Merkel Germany thought that Russia would not jeopardize their cash cow by doing something that angered NATO too much.

And as far as the armaments go, this explains the behavior far better

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Last time a unified Germany was an ally of Russia/the USSR was June 21, 1941

But what kind of an "ally" considering what they did the next day...

EDIT: And we are talking about the actual Nazi Germany here...

Source:

Operation Barbarossa - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org