Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

A couple of assessments of the Russian army.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502673952572854278

I wasn't aware of the thieves who prey on the military, including the nuclear weapons guys. After reading this my odds that their nukes work have gone from 50/50 to about 15%. Though with nukes any odds above 0.0% is too high.

This from the start of the war, but it talks about the structure of Russian forces
Composed of Tanks, Infantry, and Artillery, Russia's Battalion Tactical Groups Will Tackle War With Ukraine

And this video is their VDV (elite airborne forces in action):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504584420166193165

I can't find it now, but there was video a few days ago of a Ukrainian recon squad on patrol. They took fire and acted exactly like you'd expect the Americans or British to act. They covered each other and made an organized, well covered withdrawal. The complete opposite of this clown show.

Here are the losses the Ukrainians claim have been inflicted on the Russians thus far:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505100624391774209

Maybe it's on the high side, but if true, 30% of Russian BTG vehicles have been destroyed. The bulk of the tanks and armored personnel vehicles are in the BTGs and they had a bit over 6000 involved at the start of the war. They've lost just shy of 2000. That's staggering losses.

 

[navguy12]

Russian propaganda changes according to local needs.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504896238826700800

On page five of this morning’s Toronto Star are two stories concerning the results of an EKOS poll (to be published online this weekend).

Executive summary: the less doses of COVID vaccine one has, the more one is against any Canadian response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The stories detail how the same anti-vaxxer “dogma” is being repeated by the same segment of the Canadian population as pro Russin “dogma”.

I can confirm this via anecdotal evidence with people I personally deal with.

 

[ZachF]

Something many of us have been shouting about ever since Modi came to power. It will only get worse.

I wouldn’t be surprised for India to break up into many smaller countries someday in the future. It’s already happened once (Pakistan and Bangladesh used to be a part of India)

I think a lot of people think India is far more monolithic than it actually is, when it is as diverse (or perhaps more so) than Europe. The largest language spoken in India for instance is only spoken by ~40% of the population, with dozens of different languages often with different alphabets spoken by tens to sometimes hundreds of millions of people.

Modi’s style of leadership greatly increases the chance of something like this happening IMHO.

 

[nativewolf]

Just FYI he says he did not think they would invade Ukraine because that would give the army power. So..I am not sure what faith to put on him. Interesting that he says thieves target military. Mostly it seems poorly constructed argument..as if he is railing against the oligarchial mafia state that is Russia, and he mourns for the loss of a real professional army.

A couple of assessments of the Russian army.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1502673952572854278

I wasn't aware of the thieves who prey on the military, including the nuclear weapons guys. After reading this my odds that their nukes work have gone from 50/50 to about 15%. Though with nukes any odds above 0.0% is too high.

This from the start of the war, but it talks about the structure of Russian forces
Composed of Tanks, Infantry, and Artillery, Russia's Battalion Tactical Groups Will Tackle War With Ukraine

And this video is their VDV (elite airborne forces in action):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504584420166193165

I can't find it now, but there was video a few days ago of a Ukrainian recon squad on patrol. They took fire and acted exactly like you'd expect the Americans or British to act. They covered each other and made an organized, well covered withdrawal. The complete opposite of this clown show.

Here are the losses the Ukrainians claim have been inflicted on the Russians thus far:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505100624391774209

Maybe it's on the high side, but if true, 30% of Russian BTG vehicles have been destroyed. The bulk of the tanks and armored personnel vehicles are in the BTGs and they had a bit over 6000 involved at the start of the war. They've lost just shy of 2000. That's staggering losses.

 

[nativewolf]

Goa looks vulnerable...If I'm portugal I'm thinking..."glad I'm playing the long game".

 

[ZachF]

Goa looks vulnerable...If I'm portugal I'm thinking..."glad I'm playing the long game".

India has spent the vast majority of it’s existence as many warring states with different languages, alphabets and religions. (Like Europe)

 

[nativewolf]

India has spent the vast majority of it’s existence as many warring states with different languages, alphabets and religions. (Like Europe)

I was making a bad joke...yes, the history of India in fascinating. I sold our outsourcing arm based in Pune just 4 years ago. I've seen a lot of India but at the same time, hardly any.

 

[kabin]

Hopefully the free world also re-thinks how much business to do with India.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I wouldn’t be surprised for India to break up into many smaller countries someday in the future. It’s already happened once (Pakistan and Bangladesh used to be a part of India)

I think a lot of people think India is far more monolithic than it actually is, when it is as diverse (or perhaps more so) than Europe. The largest language spoken in India for instance is only spoken by ~40% of the population, with dozens of different languages often with different alphabets spoken by tens to sometimes hundreds of millions of people.

Modi’s style of leadership greatly increases the chance of something like this happening IMHO. /...

I wonder were the ~156 nuclear warheads that India currently has would end up...

 

[Budding]

Why India isn’t denouncing Russia’s Ukraine war

New Delhi’s balancing act reflects its interests in keeping a longstanding relationship with Russia.

www.vox.com

Some context about India and Russia. It's not easy for them given the regional issues with China and Pakistan.

 

[EVNow]

I wouldn’t be surprised for India to break up into many smaller countries someday in the future. It’s already happened once (Pakistan and Bangladesh used to be a part of India)

I think a lot of people think India is far more monolithic than it actually is, when it is as diverse (or perhaps more so) than Europe. The largest language spoken in India for instance is only spoken by ~40% of the population, with dozens of different languages often with different alphabets spoken by tens to sometimes hundreds of millions of people.

Modi’s style of leadership greatly increases the chance of something like this happening IMHO.

There have been multiple demands at breakaway - like the Khalistan movement. And some other regional movements - but mostly to break up states, rather than separate from India. But with Modi - it’s different. India has 85% Hindu population, with them spread over everywhere almost equally (except Kashmir and Punjab). So, as long as the politicians view it as monolithic Hindus vs Muslims, breakup is unlikely. Breakup would happen if regional / linguistic identity becomes stronger than national, which looks unlikely at present.

Anyway, looking at pre-British Indian map misses the point. The British could take over because of weak warring princely states. But that was not always how it was - there were powerful empires that grouped the states together and ruled for hundreds of years, from the time of Mauryas in 3rd century BC.

PS : There has been a long running British lie to claim India was never a “country” - much like Russia today says the same thing about Ukraine.

 

[SmokyPeat]

India probably isn't feeling too great about their largely Russian supplied arsenal after watching Russia's dismal military performance in Ukraine. Those S-400 anti aircraft systems they bought were a severe miscalculation. Even if the S-400 systems themselves are quite capable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

BoJo exposes Czar Vlad in naked terms:

Putin in 'total panic' about revolution in Moscow, says Boris Johnson

 

[_Redshift_]

I wouldn’t be surprised for India to break up into many smaller countries someday in the future. It’s already happened once (Pakistan and Bangladesh used to be a part of India)

I think a lot of people think India is far more monolithic than it actually is, when it is as diverse (or perhaps more so) than Europe. The largest language spoken in India for instance is only spoken by ~40% of the population, with dozens of different languages often with different alphabets spoken by tens to sometimes hundreds of millions of people.

Modi’s style of leadership greatly increases the chance of something like this happening IMHO.View attachment 782992

While history of India has shown many different languages and regional differences, todays India is far more united than might appear at first blush.

While there are going to be differences, Hinduism is the majority at 80%+. Modi is not going to make this worse.

I don’t agree with Modi’s politics, but that fires not mean India is in danger of breaking up. Opposite is true.

In the US, for example, we have a lot of differences. Done think we are in the middle of a civil war right now.

 

[stopcrazypp]

In an unprecedented move, Chinese state media on March 16th reported on Russian vehicle losses using Ukrainian sources, stating close to 1700 Russian armored vehicles have been destroyed by Ukrainian sources.

中共央視新聞頻道俄罗斯伤亡。China State media reporting on Russian losses of the War
央视突报俄军巨大损失 中共大使大赞乌克兰团结 - 万维读者网

Because there is so much fake news out there, I googled for the actual source.
This is what google images found as a real screenshot directly from CCTV's website:

Google Image Result for https://p4.img.cctvpic.com/fmspic/2022/03/16/1175dab0a46847d6a2f72e3baa1c950c-1.jpg

Banner says outright: "Ukrainian army destroys nearly 1,700 Russian tanks and armored vehicles"

Link to entire news show on CCTV's website from that google images link:
《朝闻天下》 20220315 07:00
CCTV's site is dog slow to load in the US, so I found a mirror on youtube of that segment only (you can easily google translate the title and description to verify it really does say that):

Basically report says on March 15th, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on social media that since the beginning of the war, they have destroyed the Russian army's 404 tanks, 1279 armored vehicles, 150 artillery systems, 64 multiple rocket launchers, 36 air defense systems, 81 fixed-wing aircraft, 95 helicopters, 640 cars, 3 ships, 60 fuel transporter, 9 tactical drones, etc.

This matches Ukrainian sources:
The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to March 15

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503665845234552832

Make no mistake, Chinese state media is still very much pro-Russia, even reports from the same day or following day. As evidence, you will note they left out the figures on casualties completely, something the first thread I linked the people pointed out sarcastically: "Luckily only equipment and vehicles damaged! Inside must be no ppl one as Russia reported 400+ casualties nia".

However, this is quite an unusual shift, not sure the significance, but wanted to point it out.

 

[wdolson]

Just FYI he says he did not think they would invade Ukraine because that would give the army power. So..I am not sure what faith to put on him. Interesting that he says thieves target military. Mostly it seems poorly constructed argument..as if he is railing against the oligarchial mafia state that is Russia, and he mourns for the loss of a real professional army.

A couple of assessments of the Russian army.

I noticed that comment too. Quite a few experts who only looked at the forces staged thought that Russia would not invade because the force was not large enough to capture and hold Ukraine. I saw that too.

Here he also makes the point that a drawn out war does shift power to the army. Stalin had quite a tussle with the army to get back complete control after the war. And Stalin was not as paranoid of the army as Putin appears to be. Putin is probably aware that coups don't tend to work if the army is not on board.

Kamil Galeev is an expert on post-Soviet Russia and has lived in Moscow
Kamil Galeev

Even if some of his assessments are a bit off the mark, he has valuable information to bring to the discussion.

Why this war happened is the work of one person's idiotic decision. It reminds me of an interview I listened to almost 20 years ago about why Europe became so dominant and started the Age of Exploration and not somebody else. In many ways China was more technologically advanced than Europe before the Age of Exploration, but they failed to conquer the world when Europe did.

The argument the guy made was that Europe had many kingdoms that were small enough so the kingdoms were in constant competition with one another, but not so small they constantly got overrun by a neighbor. This competition set off an arms race that also fueled technological evolution in general and led to the invention of the scientific method and science as we know today in general.

He said when the kingdoms are too small, they get overrun too often for there to be much technological progress. And if the empire is too big, all it takes is one idiot making a decree to stop what could be a major innovation or discovery. That's what happened in China. China built a large navy of exploration with some of the largest wooden ships ever built.

Unlike Europe, they were not looking to settle elsewhere, but they were looking for resources. To ensure their navy didn't leave half Chinese children everywhere all the sailors were castrated (life was often brutal through most of human history). Anchors from these Chinese ships have been found off the coast of California as well as other artifacts around the Pacific Rim. The Chinese were working their way down the east coast of Africa and were going to go around the cape and up the west coast to Europe within a decade or two, but they got a new emperor who didn't like ships and he ordered the entire navy destroyed. All the sailors were put to death.

Due to one decision by a mercurial emperor hundreds of years of institutional knowledge went up in smoke in a span of a few months. China has not really tried to be a naval power again until the last 20 years.

Russia has a weak economy, a paper tiger military, and a declining population, but also has a centralized dictator. Putin wanted this war, even though anyone with any expertise knew it would fail. I am sure there were many inside Russia who knew this couldn't work. Maybe the military is so cowed they couldn't even think about it, but the FSB analysts could see it. The people who see the real data could tell Ukraine was not going to be a push over and the Russian forces were too small.

 

[RSpanner]

Locally produced very low cost renewable energy is going to shift the world in a fascinating ways, robotics another, and age another. In the first Tesla is a leading reason for that success. Chinese wages are still sub world standards, literally a cook in lago nigeria makes more than a one in Shanghai. Housing is at the other end, a good apartment in Shanghai is about the most expensive in the world. Only in China do we have such an odd dichotomy and it is because they manufactured the economy, it is not natural. Frankly, I think it is in some ways a house of cards but that is another story and a terrible way to describe things. The state needs to find a way to pull out of the economy so that markets can guide the deployment of capital. They are actually doing the opposite, it had gotten a bit better. It's getting worse. The economy is shifting, value in the future is not where it used to be, and China is getting old, fast. Something demographers had spotted 30 years ago. China will have plummeting working population in 20 years. This is, I believe, what concerns Xi. This is China's moment because in 20 years China has major major issues.

 

[_Redshift_]

Russians are claiming the use of a hypersonic missile.

Reporters are doubtful about the veracity, though.

Russia claims first use of hypersonic Kinzhal missile in Ukraine

Russia says it fired a Kinzhal missile at a Ukrainian arms depot, in an apparent change of strategy.

www.bbc.com

 

[wdolson]

Russians are claiming the use of a hypersonic missile.

Reporters are doubtful about the veracity, though.

Russia claims first use of hypersonic Kinzhal missile in Ukraine

Russia says it fired a Kinzhal missile at a Ukrainian arms depot, in an apparent change of strategy.

www.bbc.com

Though there are doubts about the accuracy of the Russian claims
We Have Questions About Russia's Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use In Ukraine (Updated)

Near the bottom they have an update. They identified the target which is a barn in eastern Ukraine near the Donbas region, not western Ukraine where the Russians claim.

 

[_Redshift_]

Though there are doubts about the accuracy of the Russian claims
We Have Questions About Russia's Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use In Ukraine (Updated)

Near the bottom they have an update. They identified the target which is a barn in eastern Ukraine near the Donbas region, not western Ukraine where the Russians claim.

So, the Russians have started shooting (supposedly) hypersonic missiles to butcher some barnyard animals?