jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
That's basically my point. Putin's use of the term Nazis is equivalent to the use of the WW1 term, "the evil Hun".
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
You have to realize he sees the truth as a convenient toy, so he can lie and not be held accountable.
Like when those soldiers without banners showed up in Crimea, and Putin claimed that there were no russian soldiers there. Then the west spent next few days wondering who they could be, soldiers maneuvered in place and suddenly Putin remembered that they were russian troops after all?
MontyFloyd
Member
The Czech AF can protect Slovakia, with some overlap cover from Poland and Hungary.
Advantage is very similar language, and some familiarity with each other (was a united country before 1993).
Airborne surveillance is already active and very busy, operated by countries you listed.
MontyFloyd
Member
Stinger can/do work on jet fighters, IF low and spotted soon enough.
Building tops in cities make excellent launch platforms.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
We need an anti-air missile system that's more visual. Flares appear to be SUPER effective...
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
This Mearsheimer character can't be serious, it's like he's so infatuated with his take that he will not let plain reality interfere with his narrative. The interviewer was great but you can't get an overconfident academic to admit they're wrong. Instead you get a jumbled incoherent and just outright contradictory mess where in his mind small countries don't and shouldn't have agency and Russian imperialism shouldn't be called that because the US made them do it. I assure you, Russia's former KGB ruling class headed by Putin does not need the US to exert their deranged militarist imperialist kleptocratic ideas on their own nation and on their unwilling neighbours.
petit_bateau
Active Member
7-days in, just looking at the military picture, putting some numbers on this :
- There are various reports that Russia has committed about 80% of the about 200,00 troops it had available for this operation. So they've committed approx 160,00 over 7-days. That is very close to 20,000 per day. About two days worth of troops left if they can actually feed the rest (40,000) in.
- Most of the better combat battalions and their heavy equipment were relocated to Ukraine border in period dating back to this time in 2021 (that was the dry run). Not much left in wider Russian army reserves even if they were to strip north Europe and Eastern borders empty. Would take 2-3 weeks before next wave could arrive.
- Difficult to verify reports that marines onboard Black Sea fleet mutinied and refused to land near Odessa. Other observations of Russian troops deliberately disabling their own equipment, deserting, etc. Reports of the Chechen forces leaving the battlefield.
- It seems the Russians have spent the majority of their precision guided munitions (PGM stocks). Hence turning to dumb bombs and committing high value aircraft on dumb bombing missions.
- But more relocatable aircraft in Russian inventory than corresponding troops.
- Manufacturing replacements in a timely manner basically impossible for Russians.
- OpSec very tight on Ukrainian side, but indications that their air force is still in the fight and still has a C4ISR infrastructure of sorts to direct it. Otherwise they wouldn't have been able to achieve some of the air-to-air successes that are still flowing, and air-to-ground missions that are still operating. But aircraft resupply apparently not on the cards.
- A good example being the interdiction of the 800-vehicle convoy in Bashtanka area. That would appear to have been a successful combined arms effort by the Ukrainians.
- Manoeuvre warfare apparently mostly in evidence in southern sector, other sectors are basically pinned. Attempts to manoeuvre in Mariopol area inconclusive.
- Ukrainian armour noticeable by its absence. Is that due to Opsec ? Fully committed or do uncommitted strategic reserves exist ?
- Resupplies of ATGMS, MANPADS, and Bayraktar TB2 drones clearly ongoing. All are clearly working.
- Troops have been entering with 5-days supplies, ability to live off the land basically nil. Most very poorly informed, not motivated. Unwilling.
- Russian troop casualties (deaths) running at approx 1,000/day. So after 7-days that will be approx 7/160 = 4% fatality rate. Even if that is an overcount it is dreadful for the Russians.
- Russian ability to transfer troops/etc laterally across the theatre very weak.
- Russian column logistics basically dreadful.
- Russians have been unable to make effective use of their naval assets, so far. One exception is landings in Sea Of Azov but even that doesn't seem to have fully succeeded.
- Armoured columns are mostly restricted to the roads. Go off-roads in the open fields and everything gets stuck (this is also why the Ukrainians struggle to do a lateral harassment of these columns - slogging for miles across open muddy fields on foot, even at night, to close with a MANPAD team is an unappealing prospect). The D-day delay caused by Western intel releases and/or Covid in the Russian ranks has shifted the D-day into warmer weather after what has in any case been a mild winter. Mud matters.
- One unsubstantiated report that Ukranians have taken some ground in the Donbass.
- So far Lukashenko has been able to avoid committing the Belarusian troops. You can see why the Russians are keen that he does so, and you can see why he is keen not to do so.
- Turkey sees who is losing, and has invoked Montreux convention, scrambling to get back into NATO good books.
- Ukrainians almost certainly getting good theatre-level intel feeds from NATO.
So if the Russians carry on feeding in troops over the next two days they basically run out of troops. From there on if they wish to advance in one area they need to withdraw and transfer and reinsert troops from another area. Provided the Ukrainians can stop the the various Russian thrusts from linking up. That Bashtanka thrust interdiction is very significant and seems to be the area where a rapid Russian advance is most threatening. If the Ukrainians can hold it together for another few days the Russian invasion will be in even bigger trouble. It might even crack up. We have very little insight into Ukrainian losses, which is intself a good sign. It would appear the Ukranians are still fighting in a cohesive effective manner.
Then looking at the wider picture.
- The Ukrainian leadership is good, the population and armed forces are all highly motivated. Opposite of Russia.
- No danger of Ukranians running out of money. Russian markets closed, internationally traded Russian companies in freefall (Gazprom 97% down), Rouble down 50%. Highly coordinated Western sanctions being speedily tightened, daily.
- Western alliance holding, even firming up. No real allies for Russia, even Belarus (Lukashenko) doesn't want to commit until last minute if Russia seems to be winning.
- Western public opinion phenomenally strong and fairly well informed. Russian less well informed but actually more pro-Putin than at onset.
- Russia on verge of implementing martial law, is anyway a de facto dictatorship now. Many oligarchs apparently held hostage to guarantuee their good behavior.
- Chinese leadership not gung-ho member of the Putin fan club. But can also see downsides of a Russia loss.
- The infowar being won by the west, most everywhere outside of Russia.
- Evidence beginning to appear that UK/US had sight of the detailed invasion plans a long time ago. So either the most senior levels of the Russians leaked them, or there is a major technical intel breakthrough.
- And I think the Russian seniors will deal with Putin if he tries to go nuclear.
My personal opinion is that what the West needs to be most cautious about is pressuring Ukraine into agreeing a non-peace peace. This must not be left as a frozen conflict. Let the Ukranians work through the next week. Then give the Ukrainians the chance to throw the Russians out of the Donbass and the Crimea.
Then admit Ukraine to NATO and EU, asap. If they'll have us !
Provided they can stop those thrusts linking up.
- There are various reports that Russia has committed about 80% of the about 200,00 troops it had available for this operation. So they've committed approx 160,00 over 7-days. That is very close to 20,000 per day. About two days worth of troops left if they can actually feed the rest (40,000) in.
- Most of the better combat battalions and their heavy equipment were relocated to Ukraine border in period dating back to this time in 2021 (that was the dry run). Not much left in wider Russian army reserves even if they were to strip north Europe and Eastern borders empty. Would take 2-3 weeks before next wave could arrive.
- Difficult to verify reports that marines onboard Black Sea fleet mutinied and refused to land near Odessa. Other observations of Russian troops deliberately disabling their own equipment, deserting, etc. Reports of the Chechen forces leaving the battlefield.
- It seems the Russians have spent the majority of their precision guided munitions (PGM stocks). Hence turning to dumb bombs and committing high value aircraft on dumb bombing missions.
- But more relocatable aircraft in Russian inventory than corresponding troops.
- Manufacturing replacements in a timely manner basically impossible for Russians.
- OpSec very tight on Ukrainian side, but indications that their air force is still in the fight and still has a C4ISR infrastructure of sorts to direct it. Otherwise they wouldn't have been able to achieve some of the air-to-air successes that are still flowing, and air-to-ground missions that are still operating. But aircraft resupply apparently not on the cards.
- A good example being the interdiction of the 800-vehicle convoy in Bashtanka area. That would appear to have been a successful combined arms effort by the Ukrainians.
- Manoeuvre warfare apparently mostly in evidence in southern sector, other sectors are basically pinned. Attempts to manoeuvre in Mariopol area inconclusive.
- Ukrainian armour noticeable by its absence. Is that due to Opsec ? Fully committed or do uncommitted strategic reserves exist ?
- Resupplies of ATGMS, MANPADS, and Bayraktar TB2 drones clearly ongoing. All are clearly working.
- Troops have been entering with 5-days supplies, ability to live off the land basically nil. Most very poorly informed, not motivated. Unwilling.
- Russian troop casualties (deaths) running at approx 1,000/day. So after 7-days that will be approx 7/160 = 4% fatality rate. Even if that is an overcount it is dreadful for the Russians.
- Russian ability to transfer troops/etc laterally across the theatre very weak.
- Russian column logistics basically dreadful.
- Russians have been unable to make effective use of their naval assets, so far. One exception is landings in Sea Of Azov but even that doesn't seem to have fully succeeded.
- Armoured columns are mostly restricted to the roads. Go off-roads in the open fields and everything gets stuck (this is also why the Ukrainians struggle to do a lateral harassment of these columns - slogging for miles across open muddy fields on foot, even at night, to close with a MANPAD team is an unappealing prospect). The D-day delay caused by Western intel releases and/or Covid in the Russian ranks has shifted the D-day into warmer weather after what has in any case been a mild winter. Mud matters.
- One unsubstantiated report that Ukranians have taken some ground in the Donbass.
- So far Lukashenko has been able to avoid committing the Belarusian troops. You can see why the Russians are keen that he does so, and you can see why he is keen not to do so.
- Turkey sees who is losing, and has invoked Montreux convention, scrambling to get back into NATO good books.
- Ukrainians almost certainly getting good theatre-level intel feeds from NATO.
So if the Russians carry on feeding in troops over the next two days they basically run out of troops. From there on if they wish to advance in one area they need to withdraw and transfer and reinsert troops from another area. Provided the Ukrainians can stop the the various Russian thrusts from linking up. That Bashtanka thrust interdiction is very significant and seems to be the area where a rapid Russian advance is most threatening. If the Ukrainians can hold it together for another few days the Russian invasion will be in even bigger trouble. It might even crack up. We have very little insight into Ukrainian losses, which is intself a good sign. It would appear the Ukranians are still fighting in a cohesive effective manner.
Then looking at the wider picture.
- The Ukrainian leadership is good, the population and armed forces are all highly motivated. Opposite of Russia.
- No danger of Ukranians running out of money. Russian markets closed, internationally traded Russian companies in freefall (Gazprom 97% down), Rouble down 50%. Highly coordinated Western sanctions being speedily tightened, daily.
- Western alliance holding, even firming up. No real allies for Russia, even Belarus (Lukashenko) doesn't want to commit until last minute if Russia seems to be winning.
- Western public opinion phenomenally strong and fairly well informed. Russian less well informed but actually more pro-Putin than at onset.
- Russia on verge of implementing martial law, is anyway a de facto dictatorship now. Many oligarchs apparently held hostage to guarantuee their good behavior.
- Chinese leadership not gung-ho member of the Putin fan club. But can also see downsides of a Russia loss.
- The infowar being won by the west, most everywhere outside of Russia.
- Evidence beginning to appear that UK/US had sight of the detailed invasion plans a long time ago. So either the most senior levels of the Russians leaked them, or there is a major technical intel breakthrough.
- And I think the Russian seniors will deal with Putin if he tries to go nuclear.
My personal opinion is that what the West needs to be most cautious about is pressuring Ukraine into agreeing a non-peace peace. This must not be left as a frozen conflict. Let the Ukranians work through the next week. Then give the Ukrainians the chance to throw the Russians out of the Donbass and the Crimea.
Then admit Ukraine to NATO and EU, asap. If they'll have us !
Provided they can stop those thrusts linking up.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Voldemort was half muggle. Adolph Eichmann had jewish relatives. Those of you who keep trying to refute Ukrainian racism and its recent genocidal past based on one Jew they do not vilify (for the most part, anyway) live in a fantasy world.
Russia should be stopped. As for Ukraine -- I'd say the same for Chechnya or Uganda.
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Anyone else think that stalled military convey might be a chance for the Russian soldiers to enter the Guinness Book of Records and military folklore by being part of the biggest surrender in military history. Even if not in terms of military personnel, certainly in terms of military equipment.
5 Million Rubbles is a fair delivery fee, and it will be the easiest 5 Million most of them ever make.
If they are genuinely out of fuel and food, then they don't have a lot of options...
Even if they have plenty of fuel and food, they will eventually run out of food unless they get regular resupply.
Ukraine recently counter attacked in that area, they first time they have reclaimed territory on a hopefully permanent basis.
IMO there are 4 likely reasons for that:-
1. Making sure the Russians stay put.
2. Establishing forward bases for Drone strikes on the convoy.
3. As part of a series of moves designed to cut-off resupply.
4. All of the above.
Meantime the Kyiv air defence is holding up well, any cease fire might be an opportunity to improve the air defence of other cities.
We will Russians be slightly more accommodating at the next round of talks, or will their troops get to set the record?
5 Million Rubbles is a fair delivery fee, and it will be the easiest 5 Million most of them ever make.
If they are genuinely out of fuel and food, then they don't have a lot of options...
Even if they have plenty of fuel and food, they will eventually run out of food unless they get regular resupply.
Ukraine recently counter attacked in that area, they first time they have reclaimed territory on a hopefully permanent basis.
IMO there are 4 likely reasons for that:-
1. Making sure the Russians stay put.
2. Establishing forward bases for Drone strikes on the convoy.
3. As part of a series of moves designed to cut-off resupply.
4. All of the above.
Meantime the Kyiv air defence is holding up well, any cease fire might be an opportunity to improve the air defence of other cities.
We will Russians be slightly more accommodating at the next round of talks, or will their troops get to set the record?
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
I think they already captured that honor during operation 'Barbarossa' in WW2.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Here's another similar article that has been used a lot by people defending Russia's actions, especially Chinese language ones (not sure if the links to Chinese translations was the cause or were added afterwards).
Opinion | This Is Putin’s War. But America and NATO Aren’t Innocent Bystanders.
This "US/NATO started this war" argument typically is presented by people in other countries not directly in the midst of it and seem to never consider nor care what the people of Eastern Europe wanted. They also fail to see the irony that Russia's military actions in Eastern Europe over the years and this ongoing invasion is exactly what those people feared and why they wanted to join NATO.
The reality is, if you pay attention to what Putin have said in his speeches throughout the years about the dissolution of the USSR, and also his actual essay in 2021 on the subject of Ukraine (many of the points which he can easily recycle to "justify" invading other Eastern European countries), NATO and threat to Russia's existing borders have nothing to do with it. It's imperialism plain and simple. Even without NATO's east expansion, as long as there are eastern European nations that are unwilling to be Putin's puppets, there is no guarantee he won't invade.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I've seen varying reports about Kherson today but it seems to have fallen to the Russians
As far as I can gather the Russians don't currently control the whole city, but are currently gaining ground..
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Russia will almost certainly suffer more casualties in the first 40 days of Putins idiotic war than all of NATO has suffered in the past 40 years.
Yes, I think they will loose troops and equipment in all phases:-
- Attacking
- Occupying
- Logistics
It is a large country lots of people in many separate towns and cities, lots of miles of road, lots of bridges forests and other places where insurgents might be able to store equipment or hide out.
The good/bad news for them, is they might not get to do much occupying...
