Russia/Ukraine conflict

[stopcrazypp]

There's also this:

".../ Recent activities​

From 2014 until 2017, Ritter was a columnist for HuffPost.[57] Between 2017 and 2020, he was a frequent contributor to The American Conservative.[58] Since 2017 he also contributes regularly to Consortium News,[59] and since December 2019, he writes weekly op-eds for RT. " [My bold.] /...

Source: Scott Ritter - Wikipedia
_________________________________

Imagine that...

I didn't even click the video and when I see the title "intelligence expert," my "spidey senses" also led to his Wikipedia page. Looking at the description of the video:
"US military expert Scott Ritter, a former serviceman, who saw action in Iraq, who dealt with the Soviets, who is not on Russia’s side, talks about military operation in Ukraine: why Russia started the operation, when the operation will be over, fate of the petrodollar and global economic impact of the operation. Very interesting analysis with a realistic outcome from a US professional. This is what post-Western MSM never show to you, rather sticking to their usual “Don’t Look Up” thing. Great food for thought."

I'm not going to give the video the view, but I wonder if he ever disclosed that he writes weekly for RT in the video.

 

[Xdama]

Can you show me one “pro” Russian stuff I’ve posted ?

I have followed Putin and how he has destroyed Russia for a long time. Infact he is the archetype alt-right that alt-right people in US, India, Brazil etc follow. Alt-right US and India Twitter trolls for eg. worship him.

All I have been saying is that all war is bad. All invasions are bad. All subjugation is bad. All genocide is bad. Whether that is in Palestine, Yemen, Kashmir, Tibet, Iraq, Afghanistan …

If you think some invasions are bad and others ok … the problem is not on my end.

BTW, here is what someone who actually thinks Putin is a genius says Biden should do.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505966978644815883

Deja vu, I had a similar accusation thrown at me by the same poster. His rhetoric is “if you don’t agree with him then you must be either pro Russian, a Putin fanboy (his words) or stupid”. I just chose to ignore his posts from then on & the thread is much more pleasant. Obviously a clever bloke but with the personal skills of a rabid pitbull that’s just been neutered. My guess this is as close as he gets to having any friends

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Don't know if it's true or not, but if it's actually published by an official Russian source, it's probably the closest we'll get to an accurate number. The number of dead/wounded is staggering on the Russian side if true. They lost this many people in just 3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506000982366371847

 

[wdolson]

Deja vu, I had a similar accusation thrown at me by the same poster. His rhetoric is “if you don’t agree with him then you must be either pro Russian, a Putin fanboy (his words) or stupid”. I just chose to ignore his posts from then on & the thread is much more pleasant. Obviously a clever bloke but with the personal skills of a rabid pitbull that’s just been neutered. My guess this is as close as he gets to having any friends

It is healthy to seek out a spectrum of opinions about what's going on with the war. The problem is the Russian disinformation machine know that there are people seeking another viewpoint and they along with their surrogates (frequently unwitting fools who were suckered in a while back) provide a wealth of content.

A lot of the content posted here showing an "alternative view" is from dubious sources. I don't see that as pro-Russian on their part. I think they just didn't completely vet the source, which can happen.

My analysis is almost certainly not 100% accurate. Any and all serious analysts are trying to put together the jigsaw puzzle. We're bound to get some pieces in the wrong places. There is also a lot of noise created by dubious sources that needs to be sifted through as well as some accidental mistakes by other analysts. Bad premises can lead to faulty conclusions too, as The Atlantic article I posted earlier points out, there are still quite a few analysts clinging to the notion that Russia's military is a lot better than it seems and that they are going to somehow turn the tide.

Turning on each other here doesn't help anything and might get the moderators involved. If somebody posts something that looks like a dubious source, do a little homework and post the results. Please educate, don't berate.

Don't know if it's true or not, but if it's actually published by an official Russian source, it's probably the closest we'll get to an accurate number. The number of dead/wounded is staggering on the Russian side if true. They lost this many people in just 3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506000982366371847

I've seen this in several places today. It does appear to be an accidental admission, though the Russian numbers probably aren't completely accurate. There are always soldiers that go missing that are actually killed, and with all the chaos in the Russian lines, there are certainly troops who have been killed and they haven't recorded the deaths. It's possible the Ukrainian figure is more accurate, but the truth probably lies between this Russian number and the Ukrainian number.

No matter how you slice it, the Russian losses are cutting deep.

 

[heltok]

Don't know if it's true or not, but if it's actually published by an official Russian source, it's probably the closest we'll get to an accurate number. The number of dead/wounded is staggering on the Russian side if true. They lost this many people in just 3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506000982366371847

So much confusion, hard to know anything…

 

[Artful Dodger]

Bloomberg on Twitter: "Europe’s biggest steelmaker has eliminated Russian commodities from its supply chain following the invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/n8S0yCu2f7" / Twitter

 

[jbcarioca]

Here are top US and European companies still operating in Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506010379927027713

Marriott, for example, allows use of Marriott points at their Moscow hotels. Perhaps a more serious point should be made. Renault has reopened their Autovaz plant, which only closed for lack of parts, so hose Nada, Renault etc are in production. Their Nissan plant in Saint Petersburg is allegedly open too, although I did not find official confirmation. The world should Boycott Nissan, Mitsubishi, Renault brands loudly!

Much worse Renault group is roughly 75% French government owned. They could have stopped this but did not.
Much more offensive than that is that Petroleum products are still exported in massive quantities to EU countries, Germany #1. Russian banks still sue SWIFT to process those payments and are exempted from the sanctions.
Quite a few Russian banks still have open access to whatever currency they choose. The sanctions are VERY porous.

Of course things are very difficult for Russia and the military situation is not faring well for them so they grow more as they have been historically with Grzny and Aleppo, among other places.

The hypocrisy in this is appalling!

 

[wdolson]

So much confusion, hard to know anything…

View attachment 784307

It's possible their site was hacked, but it's also possible somebody accidentally told the truth. Organizations like Anonymous is hacking Russian websites, but most hacks tend to do something that is more clearly a hack than quote some numbers that sound plausible.

Could be either.

Marriott, for example, allows use of Marriott points at their Moscow hotels. Perhaps a more serious point should be made. Renault has reopened their Autovaz plant, which only closed for lack of parts, so hose Nada, Renault etc are in production. Their Nissan plant in Saint Petersburg is allegedly open too, although I did not find official confirmation. The world should Boycott Nissan, Mitsubishi, Renault brands loudly!

Much worse Renault group is roughly 75% French government owned. They could have stopped this but did not.
Much more offensive than that is that Petroleum products are still exported in massive quantities to EU countries, Germany #1. Russian banks still sue SWIFT to process those payments and are exempted from the sanctions.
Quite a few Russian banks still have open access to whatever currency they choose. The sanctions are VERY porous.

Of course things are very difficult for Russia and the military situation is not faring well for them so they grow more as they have been historically with Grzny and Aleppo, among other places.

The hypocrisy in this is appalling!

Completely stopping the flow of oil is not feasible yet, but Europe is working to shift their usage to other sources. I do agree that the sanctions need to be tightened. I did read that Russia's only tank factory had to shut down due to lack of parts.

I also read that somebody is going to introduce a bill in the US Congress to prevent the US government from doing business with any company that is still doing business in Russia. Koch Industries is one of these companies.

This is an interesting turn too:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506209638362103814

The translation is down thread. It's revealed in the press release that the Ukrainian security service is monitoring Ukrainain phone numbers that appear to be in use by Russians. These are probably phones stolen while looting. They regularly send texts to these numbers explaining how to defect. I guess this tank driver got the text and decided to surrender.

Also interesting that the rest of his crew had gone AWOL, but they kept him driving around in a tank that was basically just a waste of fuel. With all the knocked out tanks, there are almost certainly some surviving tank crews around that could be combined into working crews? If there aren't, that also speaks to some things. For one thing it could mean survivability when those tanks get hit is awful. That's unusual in the history of tank warfare. Even easily knocked out tanks often had survivors. My father's cousin was a Sherman tank commander in western Europe and had several tanks shot out from under him and he survived every one of them.

The Russians are also having a lot of broken down tanks and a lot of abandoned tanks. If the crew isn't around, that means the crew legged it off somewhere. That would be an indication that desertion is rampant.

Some odd munitions have been seen lately like remnants of an anti-shipping missile in Kyiv, and the use of the Kinzhal indicate to me that they are running low on longer range artillery rockets.

This will be next:
THAT TIME A U.S. NAVY A-1H SKYRAIDER DROPPED A "TOILET BOMB" ON NORTH VIETNAM - The Aviation Geek Club

The Ukrainians are pushing the Russian back out of regular artillery range of Kyiv as well as destroying both supply and the launchers. In another week or so the only threats to Kyiv might be the occasional air strike.

The smart move would be to give up on Kiev and try to secure something they could call a victory, but one area of weakness for Putin is military strategy. He's not bad at political strategy. He knows how to terrify people in his government and keep people so off balance they can't challenge him, but he doesn't get how militaries work. His thinking about this invasion was he could terrify the Ukrainians like he can terrify his own people.

Among fighter pilots there is a deadly habit called "target fixation". That's when a fighter pilot gets so hung up in trying to bag a target he makes some kind of fatal mistake like allowing an enemy to creep up behind him, or fly into the ground. Tommy MacQuire, the US #2 ace from WW II died because he went chasing after prey with full drop tanks (external fuel tanks) at low altitude and the extra weight threw the plane off balance when he maneuvered then hit a tree at 350 mph.

I think Putin has target fixation on Kyiv. The smart move would be to retreat and regroup. But I think he's going to pour resources into that objective until there is nothing left to send and Russia effectively has no army left.

 

[jbcarioca]

Or the defense against Japanese imperialism in China and Korea. One required a long and continued funding and the other an invasion that freed my MIL from Japanese forces. She lost 3 brothers in wwII, one to japanese military conscription, 2 in Japan during the war as slave labor.

I could go on and on. Right down to our terrible civil war here in the USA>

Sometimes I disagree with you, on thus we agree completely. On these issues there are so many intersecting points that the people who have studies the 1900-1950 world history see countless precedents for today. Beyond dispute, I hope, is the reality that autocracies (called Communists, monarchies, empires, nazi...) always are susceptible to jingoistic histories of glory, with accuracy unimportant to them. The Russian revolution to Imperial Germany WWI loss, White Russians in Shanghai, etc, then Manchukuo and all that followed those fomented the attitudes that have risen today.

Without a doubt, because he tells the story constantly, Putin wants Alaska back, wants the Baltics Russian and wants Eastern Europe all within the Russian influence zone. He wanted that publicly when he was Deputy Mayor of Saint Petersburg. Make no mistake, he will not compromise.

We also should not even begin to doubt the Chiese insistence on the Spratleys and Taiwan, among others. not too far away is a considerable part of eastern Russia.

Going back to the Vladivostok base fro Russian traders in furs etc the territory of Alaska down the North America west coast to Fort Ross in 1812, now California.
The 1867 Emperor Alexander sale of Alaska is seen as a traitorous act by Putin.

Be realistic, everyone, there are enormous delusionary visions of restoration to former glory abundant in the autocratic leaders of two huge nations. Perhaps luckiest for the world. the Chinese one is fully competitive and is not really delusional. Ambitious and aquisitive, but not delusional.

There is not now a chance of a positive outcome for the world, in my very humble opinion. The least harmful would be the traditional method of disposing with delusional autocrats.

I am not an expert. I have studied history. As @nativewolf points out the US civil war and WWII had many common elements. Corollary: It is futile to compromise on fundamental issues.

FWIW, Thailand/Siam and Afghanistan take opposite approaches to foreign interference. Either way, the invaders fail...eventually.

Ukraine and the Baltics are new. but they've made major progress in their own choices of governance.
For reference just consider the ~20% of ethnicities within the Russian Federation, and the political subdivisions that officially exist today:

Ethnic groups in Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This excludes the many people who are fundamental to Russian functioning who are not carriers of Russian passports. Those include ethnic Russians whose families emigrated and who came to Russia drug the post-Soviet booms. They are not counted. Then consider the technical and administrative functionaries of Russia today, many of whom have no direct affinity for the current events.

These factors, taken together spell an explosive combination. We are seeing the beginning. Nobody can know what happens next.

This is a time for high liquidity and calm. No rational person knows whether the world will "luck out" or not. Just now I have noobnfidence that the US leadership will or can understand reality. We know Putin cannot, nor is there any obvious successor. Perhaps the least likely to panic might be China.

 

[nativewolf]

@wdolson Your post from the Atlantic was another excellent piece from that Journal.

 

[jbcarioca]

I didn't even click the video and when I see the title "intelligence expert," my "spidey senses" also led to his Wikipedia page. Looking at the description of the video:
"US military expert Scott Ritter, a former serviceman, who saw action in Iraq, who dealt with the Soviets, who is not on Russia’s side, talks about military operation in Ukraine: why Russia started the operation, when the operation will be over, fate of the petrodollar and global economic impact of the operation. Very interesting analysis with a realistic outcome from a US professional. This is what post-Western MSM never show to you, rather sticking to their usual “Don’t Look Up” thing. Great food for thought."

I'm not going to give the video the view, but I wonder if he ever disclosed that he writes weekly for RT in the video.

I wanted to say this is funny..but it is not. Sorting act from fiction no is harder than ever, isn' it?
Just think; I'm actually reading Al Jazeera for insight. Doesn't help much, but less bad than most.

 

[wdolson]

Sometimes I disagree with you. On these issues there are so many intersecting points that the people who have studies the 1900-1950 world history see countless precedents for today. Beyond dispute, I hope, is the reality that autocracies (called Communists, monarchies, empires, nazi...) always are susceptible to jingoistic histories of glory, with accuracy unimportant to them. The Russian revolution to Imperial Germany WWI loss, White Russians in Shanghai, etc, then Manchukuo and all that followed those fomented the attitudes that have risen today.

Without a doubt, because he tells the story constantly, Putin wants Alaska back, wants the Baltics Russian and wants Eastern Europe all within the Russian influence zone. He wanted that publicly when he was Deputy Mayor of Saint Petersburg. Make no mistake, he will not compromise.

We also should not even begin to doubt the Chiese insistence on the Spratleys and Taiwan, among others. not too far away is a considerable part of eastern Russia.

Going back to the Vladivostok base fro Russian traders in furs etc the territory of Alaska down the North America west coast to Fort Ross in 1812, now California.
The 1867 Emperor Alexander sale of Alaska is seen as a traitorous act by Putin.

Be realistic, everyone, there are enormous delusionary visions of restoration to former glory abundant in the autocratic leaders of two huge nations. Perhaps luckiest for the world. the Chinese one is fully competitive and is not really delusional. Ambitious and aquisitive, but not delusional.

There is not now a chance of a positive outcome for the world, in my very humble opinion. The least harmful would be the traditional method of disposing with delusional autocrats.

I am not an expert. I have studied history. As @nativewolf points out the US civil war and WWII had many common elements. Corollary: It is futile to compromise on fundamental issues.

FWIW, Thailand/Siam and Afghanistan take opposite approaches to foreign interference. Either way, the invaders fail...eventually.

Ukraine and the Baltics are new. but they've made major progress in their own choices of governance.
For reference just consider the ~20% of ethnicities within the Russian Federation, and the political subdivisions that officially exist today:

Ethnic groups in Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This excludes the many people who are fundamental to Russian functioning who are not carriers of Russian passports. Those include ethnic Russians whose families emigrated and who came to Russia drug the post-Soviet booms. They are not counted. Then consider the technical and administrative functionaries of Russia today, many of whom have no direct affinity for the current events.

These factors, taken together spell an explosive combination. We are seeing the beginning. Nobody can know what happens next.

This is a time for high liquidity and calm. No rational person knows whether the world will "luck out" or not. Just now I have noobnfidence that the US leadership will or can understand reality. We know Putin cannot, nor is there any obvious successor. Perhaps the least likely to panic might be China.

If this war doesn't go nuclear, I think the world has an opportunity for a bright new future. If many countries chip in to help Ukraine rebuild and Putin's Russia collapses onto the dust heap of history I think Ukraine will become a powerhouse economy within the EU and a stable democracy. Who knows what Russia will become post Putin, but it will probably be a lot less militaristic because they won't have much to work with and with an aging population, they don't have many young men to send off to war anyway. I hope the Navalny faction comes to power, but just an oligarch that isn't doing anything nasty outside of Russia would be fine for the rest of the world.

Other dictatorships may topple too. Putin has been propping some up such as Asaad. We will likely get Arab Spring II this year or next year at the latest due to the grain shortages from this war and China sucking up all the excess grain.

Short term the world is going to be chaotic. Long term, it might turn out OK. We'll see.

 

[Singuy]

Scott Ritter's view about the situation:

Russia invades Crimea and Donbas, Ukraine enlist nato to help train their troops to fight off invasion. Ritter believes this is the fault of the Ukrainians as it was their plan to drag Russia into this war. Lol wtf?

It's the "there wouldn't be a war if Ukrainians surrender. It takes two to tango" bs arguement.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Much worse Renault group is roughly 75% French government owned. They could have stopped this but did not.
Much more offensive than that is that Petroleum products are still exported in massive quantities to EU countries, Germany #1. Russian banks still sue SWIFT to process those payments and are exempted from the sanctions.
Quite a few Russian banks still have open access to whatever currency they choose. The sanctions are VERY porous.

The hypocrisy in this is appalling!

Yup, Germany is effectively paying Russia to destroy Ukraine. On the tune of at least 300 million dollars EVERY FU***ING DAY, going straight to Russia.

 

[nativewolf]

Sometimes I disagree with you. On these issues there are so many intersecting points that the people who have studies the 1900-1950 world history see countless precedents for today. Beyond dispute, I hope, is the reality that autocracies (called Communists, monarchies, empires, nazi...) always are susceptible to jingoistic histories of glory, with accuracy unimportant to them. The Russian revolution to Imperial Germany WWI loss, White Russians in Shanghai, etc, then Manchukuo and all that followed those fomented the attitudes that have risen today.

Without a doubt, because he tells the story constantly, Putin wants Alaska back, wants the Baltics Russian and wants Eastern Europe all within the Russian influence zone. He wanted that publicly when he was Deputy Mayor of Saint Petersburg. Make no mistake, he will not compromise.

We also should not even begin to doubt the Chiese insistence on the Spratleys and Taiwan, among others. not too far away is a considerable part of eastern Russia.

Going back to the Vladivostok base fro Russian traders in furs etc the territory of Alaska down the North America west coast to Fort Ross in 1812, now California.
The 1867 Emperor Alexander sale of Alaska is seen as a traitorous act by Putin.

Be realistic, everyone, there are enormous delusionary visions of restoration to former glory abundant in the autocratic leaders of two huge nations. Perhaps luckiest for the world. the Chinese one is fully competitive and is not really delusional. Ambitious and aquisitive, but not delusional.

There is not now a chance of a positive outcome for the world, in my very humble opinion. The least harmful would be the traditional method of disposing with delusional autocrats.

I am not an expert. I have studied history. As @nativewolf points out the US civil war and WWII had many common elements. Corollary: It is futile to compromise on fundamental issues.

FWIW, Thailand/Siam and Afghanistan take opposite approaches to foreign interference. Either way, the invaders fail...eventually.

Ukraine and the Baltics are new. but they've made major progress in their own choices of governance.
For reference just consider the ~20% of ethnicities within the Russian Federation, and the political subdivisions that officially exist today:

Ethnic groups in Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This excludes the many people who are fundamental to Russian functioning who are not carriers of Russian passports. Those include ethnic Russians whose families emigrated and who came to Russia drug the post-Soviet booms. They are not counted. Then consider the technical and administrative functionaries of Russia today, many of whom have no direct affinity for the current events.

These factors, taken together spell an explosive combination. We are seeing the beginning. Nobody can know what happens next.

This is a time for high liquidity and calm. No rational person knows whether the world will "luck out" or not. Just now I have noobnfidence that the US leadership will or can understand reality. We know Putin cannot, nor is there any obvious successor. Perhaps the least likely to panic might be China.

Yes, compromise on core values is a path destined to lead to failure. @jbcarioca and I sometimes disagree, a good healthy process and I look forward to breaking bread together and exploring the past and what is to come. It is the differences that make life interesting. Our differences will make an exploration of the future all the more interesting.

It's not interesting when your neighbor attacks your villages and towns; especially when the neighbor has repeatedly engaged in this behavior. It is not interesting when he send teams of murderous mercenary killers to destroy your elected govt. @EVNow The reason I found your posting perplexing was not that they were "pro russian" but that they were anti Ukrainian and anti interventionist- no posting about the terrible loss of civil rights in Russia, or about killing political opponents, or about the complete destruction of Grozny- what was once a beautiful city. If Ukraine is to maintain independence, to have a chance to progress towards democracy and self governance, they must be assisted. Rigorously. Without US intervention Ukraine would at this moment probably be a Russian occupied police state, atrocities would be legion. So when you post some quib about saying we should not support Ukraine because of some NGO doc saying castrate Russians etc it is out of context and serves to only support an outcome of a loss of liberty and a greater dependence on fossil fuels. It does not reflect the truth that something is terribly amiss in Russia and it is amiss. In the recent battle for Voznesensk, that was a turning point locally, the most surprising thing for many Russians would be that the town was a Russian speaking town ...that unified to repulse a takeover by Russians performing a complex and sophisticated air/land battle strategy. Ukrainians want to be free, I happen to know that from personal experience but that's beside the point. Ukrainians of all sides are unified. Those that counsel against intervention are, in my eyes, the ones with blood on their hands. It is Chamberlin that conspired to doom 40 million people in WWII in Europe (just as many in China and Korea perhaps). All due to an unwillingness to defend freedom aggressively. Just explaining my perspective on your posts.

OTOH, I find the post re companies still operating in Russia helpful, I believe we should all put pressure on our governments to cut ties to any company doing business in Russia. For the US this would include banning Cargill and Kellog and International Paper from US contracts (which would include food assistance, military sales, paper purchases, etc). For our French colleagues it should include a rigorous campaign against Macron for not pulling Renault out of Russia, etc etc.

The end game here is not a short one, re-building Ukraine will be a multi-year process. This will mean the lose of billions in investments for many companies. That's not the end game though, simply that's the price of freedom. The end game here is the defense of democracy and liberty. For Europe this is a grave challenge. Russia has been aggressive in intervention in the Balkans, they attempted to fund a coup in Montenegro just a few years ago, they have setup a military base in Serbia and threaten Kosovo and Solvenia and Croatia. They threaten Sweden and Finland. The end solution must be to remove Putin. As you say @jbcarioca China may have been tilting to nationalism and the accompanying troubles but they are not as foolish as Putin. Putin is a product of Russia and in the end it will be up to the Russian people to resolve this. To be a member of society of nations...or not.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes, compromise on core values is a path destined to lead to failure. @jbcarioca and I sometimes disagree, a good healthy process and I look forward to breaking bread together and exploring the past and what is to come. It is the differences that make life interesting. Our differences will make an exploration of the future all the more interesting.

It's not interesting when your neighbor attacks your villages and towns; especially when the neighbor has repeatedly engaged in this behavior. It is not interesting when he send teams of murderous mercenary killers to destroy your elected govt. @EVNow The reason I found your posting perplexing was not that they were "pro russian" but that they were anti Ukrainian and anti interventionist- no posting about the terrible loss of civil rights in Russia, or about killing political opponents, or about the complete destruction of Grozny- what was once a beautiful city. If Ukraine is to maintain independence, to have a chance to progress towards democracy and self governance, they must be assisted. Rigorously. Without US intervention Ukraine would at this moment probably be a Russian occupied police state, atrocities would be legion. So when you post some quib about saying we should not support Ukraine because of some NGO doc saying castrate Russians etc it is out of context and serves to only support an outcome of a loss of liberty and a greater dependence on fossil fuels. It does not reflect the truth that something is terribly amiss in Russia and it is amiss. In the recent battle for Voznesensk, that was a turning point locally, the most surprising thing for many Russians would be that the town was a Russian speaking town ...that unified to repulse a takeover by Russians performing a complex and sophisticated air/land battle strategy. Ukrainians want to be free, I happen to know that from personal experience but that's beside the point. Ukrainians of all sides are unified. Those that counsel against intervention are, in my eyes, the ones with blood on their hands. It is Chamberlin that conspired to doom 40 million people in WWII in Europe (just as many in China and Korea perhaps). All due to an unwillingness to defend freedom aggressively. Just explaining my perspective on your posts.

OTOH, I find the post re companies still operating in Russia helpful, I believe we should all put pressure on our governments to cut ties to any company doing business in Russia. For the US this would include banning Cargill and Kellog and International Paper from US contracts (which would include food assistance, military sales, paper purchases, etc). For our French colleagues it should include a rigorous campaign against Macron for not pulling Renault out of Russia, etc etc.

The end game here is not a short one, re-building Ukraine will be a multi-year process. This will mean the lose of billions in investments for many companies. That's not the end game though, simply that's the price of freedom. The end game here is the defense of democracy and liberty. For Europe this is a grave challenge. Russia has been aggressive in intervention in the Balkans, they attempted to fund a coup in Montenegro just a few years ago, they have setup a military base in Serbia and threaten Kosovo and Solvenia and Croatia. They threaten Sweden and Finland. The end solution must be to remove Putin. As you say @jbcarioca China may have been tilting to nationalism and the accompanying troubles but they are not as foolish as Putin. Putin is a product of Russia and in the end it will be up to the Russian people to resolve this. To be a member of society of nations...or not.

My omissions were to try to be somewhat brief. The atrocity list is, sadly, huge. I have lived in four war zones. I watches ostensibly good people bomb hospitals, I watched Beirut have rocket attacks on the building I was in, agent orange applied to villages, Afghas being beheaded. When we discuss atrocities the reality is that war itself is an insane way to resolve differences. I want to be a pacifist. War makes me want to flight the warmongers, but then one participates in war.
Beyond any doubt Putin has joined the ranks of infamy long ago. The world idly stood by for Grozny, Aleppo, Crimea and more. Why would he not expect the world would ignore Ukraine also?

The world si factually standing by, wringing our hands and wailing. We will not send troops, aircraft and real power. It is too late. If he attacks Poland next then finally WWII can be the precedent, but this time it will be short and more like Hiroshima and Nagasaki than any of us want to imagine. We'd rather tolerate the aggressor than stop him.

I understand the dilemma.

 

[nativewolf]

My omissions were to try to be somewhat brief. The atrocity list is, sadly, huge. I have lived in four war zones. I watches ostensibly good people bomb hospitals, I watched Beirut have rocket attacks on the building I was in, agent orange applied to villages, Afghas being beheaded. When we discuss atrocities the reality is that war itself is an insane way to resolve differences. I want to be a pacifist. War makes me want to flight the warmongers, but then one participates in war.
Beyond any doubt Putin has joined the ranks of infamy long ago. The world idly stood by for Grozny, Aleppo, Crimea and more. Why would he not expect the world would ignore Ukraine also?

The world si factually standing by, wringing our hands and wailing. We will not send troops, aircraft and real power. It is too late. If he attacks Poland next then finally WWII can be the precedent, but this time it will be short and more like Hiroshima and Nagasaki than any of us want to imagine. We'd rather tolerate the aggressor than stop him.

I understand the dilemma.

There is at some point the perfect counter. For now at least the EU seems to be coming to a long needed wakeup. If I can be gingoistic...Europeans have a tendency to be moralistic in words but in deeds...hollow. This is a deep problem. From Germany decrying corruption in developing countries...but allowing German companies to deduct the cost of bribes from tax's. To decrying carbon but actually just buying more from a terrible actor. Anyway, for this reason I am somewhat cynical re EU actions and thus this has been a welcome but limited change. Germany needs to cut the cords on Russian fossil fuels. Italy too. Then in fact, cut fossil fuels. EUs transition to renewables won't be easy or cheap but we are seeing the costs.

 

[samppa]

Don't know if it's true or not, but if it's actually published by an official Russian source, it's probably the closest we'll get to an accurate number. The number of dead/wounded is staggering on the Russian side if true. They lost this many people in just 3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506000982366371847

What is very interesting is tha ratio of wounded to casualties. For a modern army in war, it's been around 1:3. I remember reading that US army excels here, and the ratio is has been as low as 1:4. They have good field hospitals, good and well supplied medics.

Ratio of 1:1.5 is just staggering. Seems there just are no field medics or facilities to treat wounded at all. Or maybe they just don't care..

 

[glhs272]

Regarding companies still doing business in Russia... My brother works for Komatsu Mining in Milwaukee in the company's engineering management. I queried him on this. His response "We have halted all deliveries, access to drawings, and software. We have a distributor in Russia still supporting equipment with existing inventory." Providing any support to Russia is an affront to both of us. Working to determine if/how any support to Russia can be halted.

 

[glhs272]

Regarding companies still doing business in Russia... My brother works for Komatsu Mining in Milwaukee in the company's engineering management. I queried him on this. His response "We have halted all deliveries, access to drawings, and software. We have a distributor in Russia still supporting equipment with existing inventory." Providing any support to Russia is an affront to both of us. Working to determine if/how any support to Russia can be halted.

So the issue with this local distributor in Russia, is that it's locally owned in Russia and is using its existing inventory to continue to support Russian mining. No transactions are happening between Komatsu and it's Russian distributors. However, allegedly, technical support is still being provided by Komatsu. We working to stop this, or rather I am arm twisting to my brother to get this stopped. Even if he gets fired.