Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

Atlantic article

Interesting background article about a Marine fighting in Kyiv

Summary? Behind a pay.

I could access it from a place outside the US and with a VPN...

In short: Don't think it's much new stuff compared to what have appeared in this thread already. Basically it is an up-close and personal account of how the Ukrainians have stopped and pushed back against the Russians at the frontlines outside Kiev.

 

[stopcrazypp]

This video is interesting as it gives some idea of how the war is currently being fought.

1. Ukrainian troops in front trenches. Russian scouts advance.
2. At some point Ukrainians identify and fire on Russians,
3. Ukrainians - get ready to retreat as artillery bombardment is coming.
4. Ukrainians eventually fully retreat to underground bunker.
5. Russians can't advance into an area when it is being bombarded by their artillery.
6. Ukrainians suffer minimal losses, they possibly hit some Russian scouts,
7. Key point - Russia expends a lot of artillery for minimal gain.

If this is going on all day every day in multiple locations, the logistics and economics of expending that much artillery for so little gain are challenging.,

When Ukrainians scout, they probably scout at night with night vision, Russians may or may not have an suitable underground bunker.

Seems to me attacking is hard for either side, but Ukrainians have a slight advantage.

I wonder how much equipment may play a role in this too (similar to Russia's failure to gain air superiority). Was just reading up on the recent purchase of the M109A6 "Paladin" by Taiwan, which on the surface may seem like an insignificant difference to the M109A5 (just from the model number), but I have seen the analysis from those that have spoken to artillery operators on the ground, that actually it makes a game changing difference, especially with the GPS guided PGK munitions they are also purchasing (which can land within 10 meters of target on average, including acting as failsafe when rounds deviate too far from target, while previous unguided munitions have half of their rounds land within 267m with no failsafe).
M1156 Precision Guidance Kit - Wikipedia

In traditional artillery operation, including the M109A5, essentially everything is done over radio (or equivalent voice communication). Basically you have to coordinate with whoever is directing fire, and likely have to make corrections after the first shot (which usually does not land on target). The accuracy of the munitions also mean you are pretty much shelling a general area, and not a direct target (so pretty much no friendlies allowed anywhere near).

With the M109A6 with electronic fire control, all your parameters are basically already sent over digitally to fire direction (and vice versa), which allows easy coordination among units, and with guided munitions means even your first shot will land where your target is. That allows you to fire really quickly (60 seconds) after reaching a position and move afterwards (whereas previously you have to be largely stationary for quite a while). All of this adds up to allowing artillery to fire much closer to friendlies and also for it to be highly mobile without as much risk of being hit by counter fire.

I'm not familiar with Russian equipment, but from how it performed so far, I presume a lot of what they are using is still the old style of artillery.

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507197368181084161

If Ukraine can liberate Kherson that is very symbolic.

Counter attacks seem to be happening in 3-4 areas, having Russian reinforcements rushing along roads would be a good ambush opportunity.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507197368181084161

If Ukraine can liberate Kherson that is very symbolic.

Counter attacks seem to be happening in 3-4 areas, having Russian reinforcements rushing along roads would be a good ambush opportunity.

They might not make it to Mariupol soon enough to save most of the remaining population from starvation but it looks like they're going to damn well try and liberate their city.

 

[MC3OZ]

They might not make it to Mariupol soon enough to save most of the remaining population from starvation but it looks like they're going to damn well try and liberate their city.

Yes, unfortunately it is hard to see what help can get to Mariupol in time to make a difference.

The best hope is the Red Cross has been able to negotiate something with the Russians.

 

[Sandor]

They might not make it to Mariupol soon enough to save most of the remaining population from starvation but it looks like they're going to damn well try and liberate their city.

Looks like russians are trying really hard to give Ukrainians their own Alamo... That worked really well for Santa Ana; here's to work just as well for Putin

 

[wdolson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507197368181084161

If Ukraine can liberate Kherson that is very symbolic.

Counter attacks seem to be happening in 3-4 areas, having Russian reinforcements rushing along roads would be a good ambush opportunity.

The latest FSB letter said the Russians were planning a pacification pogrom at Kherson and were willing to kill or transport to Siberia 50% of the city to do it. If the Russians continue to fight as bad as they are, they probably won't be able to do that before the Ukrainians take back the city.

Yes, unfortunately it is hard to see what help can get to Mariupol in time to make a difference.

The best hope is the Red Cross has been able to negotiate something with the Russians.

Cities can hold out against the odds for an amazingly long time if the people are determined. Leningrad held out for 900 days of siege.

Putin should understand this better than most Russians his age. His parents survive the siege!

Mariupol may not hold out. The Russians are taking ground at a glacial pace, but they are paying heavily for every inch. Every Russian vehicle knocked out or soldier killed in Mariupol is one less the Ukrainian offensive has to worry about and shortens the time Mariupol is in Russian hands if it does fall.

Essentially the Russians are already dead, they just don't know it yet.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506633887069442048

 

[CHGolferJim]

I don’t disagree with your assessment, I do think that China could not have immediately jumped into capitalism and flourished when the British were forcing opium down their throats while buying off mandarins via the Opium Wars (the cards were simply stacked against them). China’s success took careful maneuverabilities to get itself here, implementing state backed businesses and financing (this could not be achieved through pure capitalism), getting rid of patent laws (again can’t be done with capitalism), coercion and leaving many masses of farmers/peasants behind while investing in the right industries.

Could they have achieved this through pure capitalism? I don’t think so, not even Britain Germany or any Western Country outside the US could achieved what China has done. They were able to salvage communism and turned their country around when things were falling apart (this in itself is an attribution to their political system). All these things sound terrible at first glance, but numbers don’t lie, their system is working well for China.

As for capitalism, the biggest downside to this system is that it constantly needs to expand, find new markets to enforce cheap labor. When costs rise, find another country force cheap labor, then rinse and repeat. It keeps us consumers happy and prices low in the west so we can enjoy the good life and save for vacations, just how far does capitalism need to expand to keep this system going so we can buy cheap shoes/Merchandise to afford our lifestyle? if people are struggling in the west today due to high costs of gasoline, imagine how much more we would struggle when shoes/food/merchandise virtually costs 50% more or 3x as high to produce at home? Capitalism is about enjoying the good life while depending on others to produce for us… sometimes through child labor, unsafe working conditions, etc. you know, things we don’t want to see here in the US but won’t complain when others enforce it. It feels nice to be at the top in a capitalist society, but look down below and we’ll see all kinds of issues. This is where China has beaten the odds, through creating its own form of socialism and combine it with capitalism. Maybe the west is a bit threatened by China, as the old adage goes: game recognizes game. Unless Xi screws it up like Putin, I fully expect China to surpass us economically one day, and in the process I fully expect the economic conditions for China to improve amongst their citizens. A better life is what we all seek, maybe one day China will have its own form of democracy when it becomes the biggest super power in the world. By then, the millions of lives lost during the cultural revolution would be a moot point as billions upon billions of Chinese will get to the enjoy the good life for the next 10,000 years. This is much better than giving it all to the emperors, mandarins or oligarchs.

Imported technology and high availability of low cost labor are both huge factors in China’s development. I’m sure academics and other well-informed people are discussing the relative contributions of those factors as well as the state control system and other things.

 

[Bobfitz1]

M1156 Precision Guidance Kit - Wikipedia

In traditional artillery operation, including the M109A5, essentially everything is done over radio (or equivalent voice communication). Basically you have to coordinate with whoever is directing fire, and likely have to make corrections after the first shot (which usually does not land on target). The accuracy of the munitions also mean you are pretty much shelling a general area, and not a direct target (so pretty much no friendlies allowed anywhere near).

With the M109A6 with electronic fire control, all your parameters are basically already sent over digitally to fire direction (and vice versa), which allows easy coordination among units, and with guided munitions means even your first shot will land where your target is. That allows you to fire really quickly (60 seconds) after reaching a position and move afterwards (whereas previously you have to be largely stationary for quite a while). All of this adds up to allowing artillery to fire much closer to friendlies and also for it to be highly mobile without as much risk of being hit by counter fire.

I'm not familiar with Russian equipment, but from how it performed so far, I presume a lot of what they are using is still the old style of artillery.

Thanks for posting information on the M1156. I have been wondering whether U.S. or other NATO countries have been providing Ukraine with counter-battery radars so their artillery can immediately return fire and knock out Russian artillery (and mortars) targeting them or civilian targets.
Has anyone heard if we are and if not why? I don't understand why it would be withheld as it is clearly a defensive weapon and could save civilian and military lives.

Counter-battery radar - Wikipedia
A counter-battery radar (alternatively weapon tracking radar or COBRA) is a radar system that detects artillery projectiles fired by one or more guns, howitzers, mortars or rocket launchers and, from their trajectories, locates the position on the ground of the weapon that fired it.[1]: 5–18  Such radars are a subclass of the wider class of target acquisition radars.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"Although Ukraine remains outgunned in its war with Russia, as CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports, Ukrainian pilots are more than answering the call."

 

[Doggydogworld]

With $300 billion to fianance a losing war, pay employees, produce munitions and buying stocks Russia is a ticking time bomb. Things on the surface looks functional, but underneath their government is in pain, their economy will collapse eventually. Anyone who thinks the sanctions aren’t working needs to get their brains checked.

Their economy will suck, but it won't collapse. They are more than self-sufficient in the necessities, e.g. food, energy, timber, steel, concrete.

The US sanctions are $1.2 trillion in value, the entire Russian GDP is only $1.4 trillion. People need to realize the gravity of this sanction as it slowly creeps into the Russian economy, but once this baby starts rolling and Russians use up their savings, it’ll be nuclear.

1.2 trillion is mostly one time in nature, e.g. seizing their reserves plus some yachts and such. Ongoing sanctions are inconvenient, not crippling.

@MC3OZ posted the key data earlier. Russia runs a huge trade surplus. We're talking 15-20% of GDP. January 2022 annualized comes to 550b exports vs 300b imports, and oil/gas prices have risen since then. Even if we shut down 100% of their oil/gas exports they could still fund their imports. And we can't shut down anywhere near 100%, heck China alone buys close to half their crude oil.

Shutting down imports inconveniences them, but further boosts their trade surplus. Of their biggest imports fancy cars and most electronics are frills. Vlad wants to purge decadent western crap anyway. They can get key industrial equipment from China. Maybe we block a few components here and there, but again just nuisance level stuff. Nothing like that has never changed dictator behavior.

I'd like to say otherwise, but I don't see sanctions impacting Putin even a little. IMHO this is now clear to President Biden, and why he got a bit heated yesterday:
"Let’s get something straight: You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that in fact the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that. Sanctions never deter."

Of course the ones "talking about that" were VP Harris, Sec of State Blinken and Press Sec Psaki. They've said for a solid month the whole point of sanctions was to deter Putin. So you can understand why the White House press corp might be a bit confused, lol. But the key point remains, only overwhelming military force will stop Putin. Ukraine has the personnel, they just need much better weapons and a lot more of them. Arming them to the teeth today will save lives. Keep dragging our feet and many more will die.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yale professor monitoring companies still doing business in Russia ups the ante by highlighting those that are now 'digging in'

Latest list is split into five categories, and the fifth comprises those defying demands for exit and imperiling their longer-term reputations.

www.marketwatch.com

Over 1,000 Companies Have Curtailed Operations in Russia—But Some Remain

som.yale.edu

 

[Tiger]

Interesting technology Iron Beam, one of the answers to the question Could we use super powerful laser to stop ballistic missiles?

Lockheed Martin also seems to have one of those:

I wonder how many of these would you need to be able to cover the whole globe and intercept any ballistic missile shortly after its launch?

Furthermore, could these be deployed in Ukraine?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for posting information on the M1156. I have been wondering whether U.S. or other NATO countries have been providing Ukraine with counter-battery radars so their artillery can immediately return fire and knock out Russian artillery (and mortars) targeting them or civilian targets.
Has anyone heard if we are and if not why? I don't understand why it would be withheld as it is clearly a defensive weapon and could save civilian and military lives.

Russian artillery isn't hard to find. They like to line up the guns wheel to wheel in a straight line, so that control is easier. Most often in a big empty field. Also, they aren't trained in shoot-n-scoot like NATO regiments, or engagements by individual units. They shoot Regimental missions, or preferably, Div. sized.

All you need to find (mostly) stationary guns is some sound ranging equipment, which is 100% passive (helpful) and 10,000% cheaper (important).

Drones would help with correction of CB fire (also for locating tgts). No need for artillery radar on the modern battlefield.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sorry for off topic, but this could be the beginning of the end of the war. Check CNN

CNN is just covering the SCOTUS nomination right now. Care to elaborate on Ukraine? What particularly is the development you're seeing? TIA.

 

[Singuy]

CNN is just covering the SCOTUS nomination right now. Care to elaborate on Ukraine? What particularly is the development you're seeing? TIA.

A top Russian general gave some of the most detailed public remarks to date on Russia's military strategy in Ukraine, claiming on Friday that the "first stage" of Russia's military plan is now complete, with their primary focus now centered on eastern Ukraine.
"In general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed," Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, said in a Friday briefing. "The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced, allowing us, I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbas."

This is a sign of de-escalation. Russia is "declaring victory" in Western Ukraine. So I am expecting troops to be pulling back from the northwest.

 

[bkp_duke]

Russia may declare victory, but I have sneaky suspicion that Ukraine won't let them off the hook till every last Russian soldier is out of their territory, and that might even include Crimea.

Simply put, Russia can't sustain the losses they are taking. Not in manpower, not in equipment, and certainly not in morale.

 

[Singuy]

Russia may declare victory, but I have sneaky suspicion that Ukraine won't let them off the hook till every last Russian soldier is out of their territory, and that might even include Crimea.

Simply put, Russia can't sustain the losses they are taking. Not in manpower, not in equipment, and certainly not in morale.

I think Zelensky said it's up to the people. If some of these areas where the pro Russians want to be independent or be apart of Russia then it'll be their choice. I believe people in Crimea are still 80% pro Russian after this invasion. It's probably best to not contest such hostile areas or else this war can drag on for years.

 

[nativewolf]

Russians sounding retreat. It's a classic opportunity to inflect damage on retreating columns. It could also be classic Russian misdirection, don't think so but it is something they'd do. I don't know if the Ukraines are actually willing to trade land. Is russia willing to absorb the losses of a prolonged slog?