Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

A repost from somewhere else, it fits what what I have been reading.
-----------

If you check SM this is being confirmed/repeated in every town and village, as well as the outskirts of Kyiv. Basically, the Russian forces have been executing every male of military age, between 18 and 65, as they retreat…

Quote:
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/...VwPjn15L2xDuxg
Quote:
https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status...VwPjn15L2xDuxg
Quote:
https://theintercept.com/2022/03/31/...-crime-filmed/
Quote:
https://twitter.com/the_intelhub/sta...wE4IbA1v2YZ18A

And we stand by, because we worry about the price of gas.

--------------

The Ukraine needs heavy weapons - aircraft, medium range SAMs, missiles for both, artillery, armour. Otherwise the Ukraine will lose in the east, the south, and in negotiations. And all the while the Ukraine will lose lives.

The Air Force saves us from missiles and planes of the occupiers. How it works, what it needs, and why it requires NATO air defense — tells the spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force Yurii Ihnat

How the Ukrainian Air Force works, what it requires, and why we are in dire need of NATO air defense.

babel.ua

 

[petit_bateau]

This pretty much confirms that the Russians were planning to commit genocide, and that is what can still occur in the East and South if the Ukraine are not given the tools to fight and retake the currently-occupied territories

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510168073831165956

 

[Xdama]

In the case of Russia we should make every effort to give Ukraine everything they want and if we need to push the boundaries "get creative" but do it in private and in ways that are hard to detect and even harder to prove.

It is up to Ukraine to decide when to end the war, and on what terms.

Holding Russia to account for war crimes is a separate issue, it is best if the wider international community does that via a combination, of sanctions business decisions, sporting and cultural boycotts, consumer boycotts, travel bans confiscation of oligarch assets.

it is important to draw the line on war crimes, and keep it drawn for decades, if that is what it takes. Let Russia know we will never forgive or forget.

The private part is where things go wrong nowadays …… there’s always someone think’s it’s in the public’s best interest to know everything. As ex military I personally think that’s complete hogwash, other’s may & do disagree.

 

[bkp_duke]

China and Taiwan has extremely strong co-dependency economic wise. However the U.S likes to mingle not only with military weapon sales but also tries to dictates who a public traded company like TSMC/Intel/Nvidia/AMD can sell their chips to, or software companies like google who they can have access to the play store. The deterioration of strong ties between China and Taiwan is caused by the U.S, and for the past 2 decades China had close to zero reasons to invade Taiwan as they are not recognized as their own sovereign country by the U.S or by the UN.

Currently if there's one thing the democrats and the republicans can agree on is who can antagonize China more as their GDP is looking to surpass the U.S in the upcoming decade. China understands the new world order, which is not to be stupid like Russia and try to change maps with military might. It's all about soft power using economic might, hence all the investments in Africa and the pacific. So how this plays out is determined more on how the U.S plays the game more than China.

Not to speak to the rest of the rubbish you posted, but regarding microprocessor/integrated circuit sales:
These products are EXCLUSIVELY US-patented and developed products. There are a national security interest because of their ability to perform parallel calculations in supercomputers.

To be blunt, the US has every right to restrict who has access to these products. These companies develop these products full well knowing their potential usage, and thereby how they may be restricted. This is not something new, it's been this way for 40 years regarding microprocessors. The single greatest failure in the past 40 years regarding this is the US giving China a license for the original AMD Ryzen architecture and allowing them to clone that processor. That single event brought Chinese-based microprocessor status up by 20 years. The Chinese wanted this license and the blueprints because they learned microprocessors were so complex that their ability to "copy" them like they have essentially all other IP from western nations was essentially zero.

 

[wdolson]

A repost from somewhere else, it fits what what I have been reading.
-----------

If you check SM this is being confirmed/repeated in every town and village, as well as the outskirts of Kyiv. Basically, the Russian forces have been executing every male of military age, between 18 and 65, as they retreat…

Quote:
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/...VwPjn15L2xDuxg
Quote:
https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status...VwPjn15L2xDuxg
Quote:
https://theintercept.com/2022/03/31/...-crime-filmed/
Quote:
https://twitter.com/the_intelhub/sta...wE4IbA1v2YZ18A

And we stand by, because we worry about the price of gas.

--------------

The Ukraine needs heavy weapons - aircraft, medium range SAMs, missiles for both, artillery, armour. Otherwise the Ukraine will lose in the east, the south, and in negotiations. And all the while the Ukraine will lose lives.

The Air Force saves us from missiles and planes of the occupiers. How it works, what it needs, and why it requires NATO air defense — tells the spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force Yurii Ihnat

How the Ukrainian Air Force works, what it requires, and why we are in dire need of NATO air defense.

babel.ua

It's becoming clear that Russia's plans for this war are way too close to what Germany did in the 1940s. You posted the same Tweet I did with the evidence Russia went into the war planning genocide and they are doing it on the ground now.

Russia's army is not in good shape, their losses are staggering and with their poor supply transport system they are going to struggle to go on the offensive more than a few movements here and there. However the new objective is more realistic than taking the entire country.

I have read from multiple sources that Putin has put tremendous pressure on to occupy the entire Donbas by May 9. In Russia May 9 (VE Day) is a massive holiday. It takes on quasi-religious meaning, especially with the older generations over 60 who either experienced the war or were born to the war vet generation. That generation is also Putin's base of support.

Russia has a history of doing crazy things in war to meet a symbolic deadline. They took massive losses in a war to try and secure a major victory in time for Czar Alexander II's nameday. It looks like they might be trying to do that sort of thing in this war.

Russians also don't tolerate losses very well. Apparently there was grumbling on Russian social media about how shameful it was to retreat in the north. If they don't secure something they can call a win in a month, those grumblings will probably get louder.

Kamil Galeev has been writing a series of essays on the three likely scenarios that come out of this war
Latest Twitter Threads by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

1) North Korea - If Putin survives this, Russia will become a hermit kingdom
2) Imperial Reboot - If Putin goes and is replaced by another autocrat, they will try to essentially go back to the era of the Czars.
3) National Divorce - He hasn't covered this in detail, but essentially the country fractures along ethnic lines and becomes a bunch of new countries.

#3 is the best outcome for the rest of the world. Russia will cease to be any kind of world power.

The next month will likely cast the die for how all this shakes out.

I do hope the west does send in as many supplies as possible to Ukraine. They are going to need everything they can get to go on the offensive. I hope the Ukrainians are shifting some units to the south now. That's where they are needed.

 

[Singuy]

Not to speak to the rest of the rubbish you posted, but regarding microprocessor/integrated circuit sales:
These products are EXCLUSIVELY US-patented and developed products. There are a national security interest because of their ability to perform parallel calculations in supercomputers.

To be blunt, the US has every right to restrict who has access to these products. These companies develop these products full well knowing their potential usage, and thereby how they may be restricted. This is not something new, it's been this way for 40 years regarding microprocessors. The single greatest failure in the past 40 years regarding this is the US giving China a license for the original AMD Ryzen architecture and allowing them to clone that processor. That single event brought Chinese-based microprocessor status up by 20 years. The Chinese wanted this license and the blueprints because they learned microprocessors were so complex that their ability to "copy" them like they have essentially all other IP from western nations was essentially zero.

The US didn't give them anything, AMD did. And if Intel didn't drive AMD to the brink of bankruptcy from illegal behavior of the past by violating antitrust laws, AMD wouldn't want this bottom feeder money from China.

 

[X Fan]

A repost from somewhere else, it fits what what I have been reading.
-----------

If you check SM this is being confirmed/repeated in every town and village, as well as the outskirts of Kyiv. Basically, the Russian forces have been executing every male of military age, between 18 and 65, as they retreat…

Quote:
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/...VwPjn15L2xDuxg
Quote:
https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status...VwPjn15L2xDuxg
Quote:
https://theintercept.com/2022/03/31/...-crime-filmed/
Quote:
https://twitter.com/the_intelhub/sta...wE4IbA1v2YZ18A

And we stand by, because we worry about the price of gas.

--------------

The Ukraine needs heavy weapons - aircraft, medium range SAMs, missiles for both, artillery, armour. Otherwise the Ukraine will lose in the east, the south, and in negotiations. And all the while the Ukraine will lose lives.

The Air Force saves us from missiles and planes of the occupiers. How it works, what it needs, and why it requires NATO air defense — tells the spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force Yurii Ihnat

How the Ukrainian Air Force works, what it requires, and why we are in dire need of NATO air defense.

babel.ua

The murder of these innocent citizens plus the hostages taken and shipped back to Russia is right from the Hitler-Stalin playbook and the West needs to respond more strongly (and not be like FDR by turning a blind eye to the Nazi’s genocide).

 

[bkp_duke]

The US didn't give them anything, AMD did. And if Intel didn't drive AMD to the brink of bankruptcy from illegal behavior of the past by violating antitrust laws, AMD wouldn't want this bottom feeder money from China.

Incorrect. The entire deal required US gov approval. Microprocessor designs are considered restricted technology and this kid of tech transfer requires a export license.

AMD Not Conducting Further Technology Transfers of x86 IP to China JV (Updated)

AMD CEO Lisa Su tells us that the company is halting further technology transfers of its x86 IP to China-based companies.

www.tomshardware.com

AMD Denies Report It Gave China 'Keys to the Kingdom,' Violated National Security - ExtremeTech

AMD has fired back at the Wall Street Journal for implying it put US national security at risk with its joint venture. The public evidence seems firmly on AMD's side.

www.extremetech.com

 

[Singuy]

Incorrect. The entire deal required US gov approval. Microprocessor designs are considered restricted technology and this kid of tech transfer requires a export license.

AMD Not Conducting Further Technology Transfers of x86 IP to China JV (Updated)

AMD CEO Lisa Su tells us that the company is halting further technology transfers of its x86 IP to China-based companies.

www.tomshardware.com

AMD Denies Report It Gave China 'Keys to the Kingdom,' Violated National Security - ExtremeTech

AMD has fired back at the Wall Street Journal for implying it put US national security at risk with its joint venture. The public evidence seems firmly on AMD's side.

www.extremetech.com

The problem is that US decides to use this kind of BS leverage to control a countries behavior. The Ryzen license was only a threat to using this leverage and not actual how China can scale their data center. Major chip makers are still partnering with Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba, etc etc. You think their daracenters run on potatoes? They run on Milan and could care less about Zen 1.

Go read AMDs investor slides, all are listed as partners.

 

[bkp_duke]

The problem is that US decides to use this kind of BS leverage to control a countries behavior. The Ryzen license was only a threat to using this leverage and not actual how China can scale their data center. Major chip makers are still partnering with Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba, etc etc. You think their daracenters run on potatoes? They run on Milan and could care less about Zen 1.

Go read AMDs investor slides, all are listed as partners.

Partners are still subject to export restrictions.

There is also a HUGE difference in selling them chips and giving them the lithography plans and architecture details on how to fab it themselves. China can buy chips, but the US has laws in place that are agreed upon by the companies on what production IP can be transferred. This is why AMD is happy to use TSMC as a fab, but won't touch China mainland based fabs.

But what do I know. Not like I work in this field, have setup data centers abroad, personally dealt with tech transfer restrictions, etc. etc.

 

[Singuy]

Partners are still subject to export restrictions.

There is also a HUGE difference in selling them chips and giving them the lithography plans and architecture details on how to fab it themselves. China can buy chips, but the US has laws in place that are agreed upon by the companies on what production IP can be transferred. This is why AMD is happy to use TSMC as a fan, but won't touch China mainland based fabs.

But what do I know. Not like I work in this field, have setup data centers abroad, personally dealt with tech transfer restrictions, etc. etc.

Yes, they are subject to export restrictions, but it was something that wasn't a thing 8 years back as relationship was not as sour as today. I would imagine China will increase corporate espionage to gain patent secrets as US use more bs leverages trying to cripple another major power. In retrospec with hindsight, yes it's a major mistake for the license transfer because now this leverage has a much smaller impact.

But just like low level sanctions, it doesn't do much to that country besides shoring up their counter measures

 

[JRP3]

And we stand by, because we worry about the price of gas.

I think the concern is escalation, specifically nuclear. Besides the sooner this ends the sooner gas prices would go down which would seem to incentivize more involvement from the west, if it weren't for the nuclear issue.

 

[jbcarioca]

From Al Jazeera today:

For isolated Russia, replacing key imports an uphill battle

Moscow’s aggressive campaign of import substitution since 2014 has had mixed results at best, analysts say.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[BornToFly]

This is for the anti-sanction crowd who are still questioning the effectiveness of Biden’s $1.3 trillion worth of sanctions against Russia. Here’s some more images of how the lives of average Russians are being affected by sanctions.

The idea is that these slow burn will eventually affect the middle class.

Sanctions haven't saved one life in Ukraine yet. Entire cities are being leveled. The only thing that has done anything is massive military aid from the West so that the Ukrainians can FIGHT. I have been right since day 1 that the only way to stop a bully is to beat him. Thousands of lives would have been saved if we had done more militarily, and done it sooner. If we are lucky, when this is over the sanctions will eventually bring about a regime change in Russia, but they have done next to nothing for the war/killing in Ukraine.

 

[CHGolferJim]

This came up today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510168073831165956

It appears the Russians were planning genocide in Ukraine last fall. The WindOfChange letters also talk about how the Russians planned to keep killing Ukrainians until all that were left were the passive ones willing to accept Russian rule.

This is right up there with what the Nazis did. I'm reminded again and again that the authoritarian playbook: accuse the other guys of being/doing exactly what you're either doing or planning to do.



I posted in another thread a few hours ago and it was bold there. The forum has since reverted to normal font.


Purported internal Russian report leaked with the casualty totals

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510185195756007425

Translation
"Inside - excerpt from the internal report in the Russian Federation on the morning of April 2: "Irretrievable military-operational losses of manpower of personnel Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - 17,549 people. PMC - 5,366 people. The total loss of manpower of the personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Russian PMCs is 22,915 people"

And who are the Nazis?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"Retired Gen. Wesley Clark discusses Putin's next move after withdrawing many Russian forces away from Ukraine's capital city, Kyiv." Clark served as the Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO from 1997 to 2000.

–> Ret. Gen. Clark says the Ukranians need Tanks and Fighter jets. He says the West should give the Ukrainians what they say they need.

 

[sundaymorning]

The fallout continues:

Lithuania cuts off Russian gas imports, urges EU to do same

Lithuania says it has cut itself off entirely of gas imports from Russia, apparently becoming the first of the European Union's 27 nations using Russian gas to break its energy dependence upon Moscow.

“Seeking full energy independence from Russian gas, in response to Russia’s energy blackmail in Europe and the war in Ukraine, Lithuania has completely abandoned Russian gas,” Lithuania’s energy ministry said in a statement late Saturday, adding that the measure took effect in the beginning of April.

 

[Skipdd]

I think the concern is escalation, specifically nuclear. Besides the sooner this ends the sooner gas prices would go down which would seem to incentivize more involvement from the west, if it weren't for the nuclear issue.

When the stakes become genocide or not, we have to be much more aggressive. Genocide, repeat of WWII is unacceptable. This message of what the Russians intended needs to be aggressively promoted in the media. I did not understand this was their intent, nor what they have been doing prior to seeing these posts this weekend. U N A C C E P T A B L E !

 

[Fred42]

Sanctions haven't saved one life in Ukraine yet. Entire cities are being leveled. The only thing that has done anything is massive military aid from the West so that the Ukrainians can FIGHT. I have been right since day 1 that the only way to stop a bully is to beat him. Thousands of lives would have been saved if we had done more militarily, and done it sooner. If we are lucky, when this is over the sanctions will eventually bring about a regime change in Russia, but they have done next to nothing for the war/killing in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin can kill everyone in the United States anytime he chooses to do so. Some underlings might also be able to take this initiative. We would retaliate, but this wouldn't matter as everyone would be dead. The only way to hopefully prevent this is effective management of difficulties to avoid this step. What the Russians are doing is terrible, and we should assist the Ukrainians, but the US government needs to stay focused on the big picture.

 

[Xdama]

The fallout continues:

Lithuania cuts off Russian gas imports, urges EU to do same

Lithuania says it has cut itself off entirely of gas imports from Russia, apparently becoming the first of the European Union's 27 nations using Russian gas to break its energy dependence upon Moscow.

“Seeking full energy independence from Russian gas, in response to Russia’s energy blackmail in Europe and the war in Ukraine, Lithuania has completely abandoned Russian gas,” Lithuania’s energy ministry said in a statement late Saturday, adding that the measure took effect in the beginning of April.

Kudos to Lithuania for taking this step. How does the EU view it though? I thought they were all meant to sing off the same songsheet. Is this unilateral action going to end up with a slapped wrist for Lithuania? ……Just asking before someone get’s their knickers in a twist