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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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We've been watching the Yale lecture class by Timothy Snyder (11 lectures thus far)

He talks a lot about the Psychology of the Russians and where it came from. In English translation the Russians refer to Ukraine as The Ukraine, which is a term "na" used in many Slavic languages that describes a place with no concrete existence. I liken it to the American region we call Appalachia. It is a cultural region, but the borders are vague and it has no legal existence as a state, country, etc. In the US context it encompasses pieces of several states and all of a few.

A shorter version of the history is in this podcast that did a few episodes on the history of Ukraine
148. The Vikings Go East – The Rest Is History – Podcast

149. The Birth of Russia – The Rest Is History – Podcast

155. Ukraine and Russia – The Rest Is History – Podcast

The Snyder lectures go into way more depth and also go into how the languages and use of language shapes the way people think.

Someone posted part of this thread early today, but here is the full thread. What's telling is the top part of the thread. Russia is facing a transportation armageddon as soon as this winter.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Russian rail is completely dependent on cassette bearings. Only a couple of countries make these and all are countries sanctioning Russia right now.
 
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All of the end game solutions for Russia are bad, but Balkanization of Russia is probably the best solution for the rest of the world in the long run.
What would be a better solution would be a "Marshall Plan" type approach to rebuild Russia. Anything else would probably result in an even more vicious regime taking power.
 
I think Ukraine is going to be more in need of a Marshall Plan type effort after the dust settles.

Both in need and deserve it.

If Russia turns away from totalitarianism and decides to try real democracy again, I think the world should support that and give them economic aid. The west turning its back on Russia when they were trying democracy in the 90s is what led to Putin.
 
I'm not super optimistic that Russia will emerge from this war rechristened as a benevolent democracy. We can hope- and it should be encouraged in any way possible. Ukraine will absolutely need a tremendous amount of aid to rebuild, without a doubt.

Most people think of the aid given to West Germany when talking about the Marshall Plan. That was a critical element of the plan, but more aid went to the Allies. UK and France got the most aid per capita.
 
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I'm not super optimistic that Russia will emerge from this war rechristened as a benevolent democracy. We can hope- and it should be encouraged in any way possible. Ukraine will absolutely need a tremendous amount of aid to rebuild, without a doubt.

I'm not either. I think there is a good chance the country unravels in the wake of the war.

I looked up cassette bearing makers. 4 are American and 1 Swedish
Rail Insider-Technology update: Rail wheels and bearings. Information For Rail Career Professionals From Progressive Railroading Magazine

So Vlad, you want to get your trains moving again? We have some conditions...

Because of Russian inflicted infrastructure damage on Ukraine, it could be a cold and difficult winter for the Ukrainians, but it's going to be even rougher in Russian held territory and possibly bad in Russia itself. Russia is one of the most rail dependent nations on Earth. If the trains stop moving, Russia grinds to a halt.
 
The west turning its back on Russia when they were trying democracy in the 90s is what led to Putin.
That's terribly reductionist and ignores large parts of Russian inner logic. They never truly tried democracy because they never gave up imperialism. West's inadequate support or exploitation played a part in Russia's anti-West narrative, but Russia itself is the one that bears the responsibility for not turning away from imperialism and the inevitable genocidal logic that follows from it.
 
There is talk from various sources that Russia is trying to organise an urgent evacuation from Kherson right now and that could be a precursor to a 'big event'.
It could be a large false flag operation from Russia, an impending attack from Ukraine or something really bad such as a dam breach or nuclear attack.
Whatever it is, I hope the west is ready to step up to the mark if things get really messy.
 
On the rail issue Don’t make too much or too little of the ball bearing issues. Making great ball bearings is what enables one to make the bearings, in short the ball bearings are really the key. Skf is a big Swedish manufacturer and they make the ball bearings cited in trents Twitter thread. The ball bearings are then pressed into the roller which is then pressed into the cone giving you a cone roller bearing. This is common, China could replace tomorrow. However ball bearings are critical bits of engineering that few really understand just how critical. it is the ball bearing that is the holdup here and those come from a Swedish plant. The same Swedish company under investigation because their ball bearings were used to build the Russian nuclear weapons program. How they got into the machines is probably good ole kgb expertise but an ironic twist.

Skf is not the only group able to make an appropriate ball bearing. FYI. Follow the ball bearings, it’s what the cia does 😃
 
I'm not super optimistic that Russia will emerge from this war rechristened as a benevolent democracy. We can hope- and it should be encouraged in any way possible. Ukraine will absolutely need a tremendous amount of aid to rebuild, without a doubt.

Most people think of the aid given to West Germany when talking about the Marshall Plan. That was a critical element of the plan, but more aid went to the Allies. UK and France got the most aid per capita.
Much of Western Europe didn’t have the entrenched Mafia problem either.

Russia can’t be solved until the Underworld is defanged and the wealth & power of the very few is ended.
 
There is talk from various sources that Russia is trying to organise an urgent evacuation from Kherson right now and that could be a precursor to a 'big event'.
It could be a large false flag operation from Russia, an impending attack from Ukraine or something really bad such as a dam breach or nuclear attack.
Whatever it is, I hope the west is ready to step up to the mark if things get really messy.

I'm more optimistic. The 'big event' could also be Russians vacating the area north of the Dnipro, now that they are starting to realise their troops have their backs against the wall (river) and cannot be sufficiently supplied (no more bridges left on the Dnipro, just some ferries). The Kirch bridge attack only worsened the situation.
 
I'm more optimistic. The 'big event' could also be Russians vacating the area north of the Dnipro, now that they are starting to realise their troops have their backs against the wall (river) and cannot be sufficiently supplied (no more bridges left on the Dnipro, just some ferries). The Kirch bridge attack only worsened the situation.
I hope you're right.
 
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So the Kakhovka dam, how much electricity does it provide? Does it provide irrigation? Russians are discussing that being blown. If so, so what? Does it flood Kherson? Many dams today would. Ever be built, it appears to be a huge reservoir. Is it the cooling pond for the large nuke they are fighting about?
- local irrigation
- control of water level for barge traffic purposes
- hydro electricity
- control of water level for inflow to Crimea water supply canal
- and the inflow to the ZNPP cooling water system (not directly into the ponds, but indirectly yes it is all linked together)