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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
This is the USA's to screw up. China WANTS desperately to feel like they are in control and not loose face. China at the same time will not send much to Russia. We unfortunately need to look the other way for a small amount of aid. We are not ready for a trade war, neither is China, but the better thing is to go after other suppliers like Iran.
From Le Monde comes a biographical sketch of Zelensky, et al.
www.lemonde.fr
I found it to be informative.
Le Monde - World news, culture and opinion from the unique perspective of the leading French newspaper
Le Monde - World news, culture and opinion from the unique perspective of the leading French newspaper
www.lemonde.fr
It does demonstrate that the US won't abandon Ukraine.
Re the long range weapons issue:
There are a lot of rumours flying around in UK about giving Ukraine a UK/French cruise missile called Storm Shadow/SCALP, somewhat analagous to Tomahawk. I had previously discounted this but the amount of buzz in the rumour network means it may be genuine. It has been used against targets in Syria so any extra intel value to the Russians arising from use would be minimal. The UK only has the air-launch version so either that would need integrating onto the Ukraine aircraft, or the UK would need to supply a 'land' version of the naval system. It is possible that a limited range 'export' version might be supplied. The warhead has an anti-bunker capability so it could also reasonably be used against significant strategic infrastructure targets. To be honest I figured that this would be too 'much' weapon to give Ukraine and so had discounted it. For example Storm Shadow range is ordinarily 350-miles versus 190-miles for ATACMS; and warhead of 450kg (990lb) versus 230kg (500lb). But with all the rumours out there one can't be sure.
Very interesting if the UK delivers those.
19% of China's GDP comes from exports. Their domestic economy can't absorb all that if foreign trade goes away. Additionally 2/3 of what comes in goes out again for imports. Without the money coming in, they won't be able to import the stuff they need.
Losing all those exports would also result in massive unemployment.
The countries buying from China would take a big hit cutting off imports too. I have read that at least in some areas the US is re-industrializing to replace Chinese imports. The west should be doing as much as possible to break away from China.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Your characterization assumes China has a lack of goods to consume themselves, when they don't. What they have is a lack of wealth in the lower to middle class, not a lack of goods. Domestic consumption simply is not enough to support their economy (even though China is making moves to improve it). Personally I don't think their regime will topple regardless of what happens to their economy (they have done some fairly ridiculous policies for Covid, but seemed to mostly have gotten away with it with only limited resistance from the public), but certainly I don't think the regime wants to threaten their exports too much, especially for Russia.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Ukraine: Inside the Pennsylvania ammunition plant helping the war effort
The factory inside a disused railway plant produces 11,000 artillery rounds every month for the Ukrainian war effort, in production levels not seen since the Korean war 70 years ago - but Ukrainian soldiers are using up to 10,000 shells a day on the battlefield.
news.sky.com
Dreadnought
Member
Leaked document reveals alleged Kremlin plan to take over Belarus by 2030
As the whole world watches Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine, the Kremlin is quietly absorbing neighboring Belarus into its orbit. Russia’s encroachment on Belarus may, however, be the result of a meticulously composed plan. A group of European and U.S. media outlets, including the Kyiv...
petit_bateau
Active Member
Sensible piece
www.aljazeera.com
Russian military expert on Ukraine: ‘War could end this year’
Al Jazeera interviews Pavel Felgenhauer on the current state of war and possibilities for peace.
trayloader
Member
Cracks are showing. Great!
This was the news today, translated from "Spiegel.de":
"Prigozhin: Shoigu wants to "destroy" Wagner Group
The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accuses Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of trying to destroy his units. Shoigu and the Chief of General Staff are depriving his fighters of ammunition, Prigozhin says in a voice message on his Telegram channel. This, he said, amounts to treason.
"There is simply direct opposition," Prigozhin says. There has been an attempt to "destroy Wagner," he says. Prigozhin has repeatedly been critical of the Defense Ministry for military setbacks to the Russian army. He has also complained that he feels the merits of his mercenary units have not been sufficiently appreciated."
On another note- I´m beginning to worry about the POTUS being super frail.
Even tho they used the best scripting and cutting, the clips from Joe Biden walking and hugging Selenskij were showing an almost senile state of the POTUS. But BTT
This was the news today, translated from "Spiegel.de":
"Prigozhin: Shoigu wants to "destroy" Wagner Group
The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accuses Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of trying to destroy his units. Shoigu and the Chief of General Staff are depriving his fighters of ammunition, Prigozhin says in a voice message on his Telegram channel. This, he said, amounts to treason.
"There is simply direct opposition," Prigozhin says. There has been an attempt to "destroy Wagner," he says. Prigozhin has repeatedly been critical of the Defense Ministry for military setbacks to the Russian army. He has also complained that he feels the merits of his mercenary units have not been sufficiently appreciated."
On another note- I´m beginning to worry about the POTUS being super frail.
Even tho they used the best scripting and cutting, the clips from Joe Biden walking and hugging Selenskij were showing an almost senile state of the POTUS. But BTT
trayloader
Member
Isn´t that where the Chinese come in? Oli and gas for weapons? But for which goods in the future?
petit_bateau
Active Member
I don't often give downvotes but I did to this. Firstly it is a team effort, and Biden and the USA are definitely key parts of the team. Secondly Biden did great. We need to pull together, not take pot shots at key players.
"Out of 24 hours, president Biden spent 20 on the train (both directions), and only 4 in Kyiv."
I don't know about you, but for me doing 10-hours in a train, 4-hours on show, then 10-hours back in a train would be a tad unappealing. Well done to that man.
Oh, and that was after 7-hours locked up in plane.
Obvious strategy would be for the two large Communist countries (Russia and China) to join forces. China has tremendous manpower & firepower, while Russia has tremendous energy reserves. Problem is that after Ukraine is resolved, China is powerful enough to then annex and occupy it's next door neighbor...Russia. Russia would be powerless to stop China from rolling in their back door and taking, by force, all the territory they pleased. Russia has set the stage for their own demise. The one weakness of China becoming the Worlds strongest Superpower would be eliminated once they could annex the oil/coal/gas rich areas of Eastern Russia.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
China is in the throes of a fateful decision: whether to remain Communist, or to remain Capitalist.
Biden really likes train travel so that may have actually relaxed him.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Certainly not his security detail.
Train travel is awesome.
I crossed France 6 times in the past 12 months.
Just a few days ago, I had diner in Paris, hopped on the night train at 9 PM, had a good 10h sleep, woke up at 9 AM in Latour-de-Carol at 1,200 m. altitude and one km from Spain), took the public bus at 9:30, got off at 10:00 in Les Angles ski station after enjoying the view on the wild snowy valleys, rode the chairlift at 10:30, and enjoyed the view of the Pyrénées above the clouds. I did not waste one minute of my time during the whole 850+ km journey. All for less than €70 for the round trip, and less than 10 kg of eq. CO2.
Nothing can beat that, not even FSD.
PS: I read this thread from the train of course, just to stay on topic
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Well, Russia still has nukes, so that is a pretty big deterrent to China just rolling in. As for their relations, even during the Communist days, it has been complex. I think frenemies is the closest term to describe them. They were united in their hatred of the USA, but otherwise they still hated each other's guts and were deeply suspicious of each other.
In the modern era, Russia is not blind to China's boldfaced stealing of Russian military technology and turning around to use that to take military sales from Russia, even those of other countries. The thing China remained tripped up on are jet turbine engines, which are much harder to reverse engineer and replicate.
As it relates to this war, China wanted to take over Motor Sich, a Ukrainian jet turbine manufacturer (a move that probably would have given them the last piece of the puzzle), but it was blocked back in 2021 on the urging of the US, and China tried to take it to international court. Now with the war, the company has been taken over by the Ukrainian government, so that effort is down the drain, and isn't likely to change for the foreseeable future. So Russia starting the war kind of indirectly blocked them on this too.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
They wouldn't lose "all" exports. About 1/3rd of exports are to US and Europe. Add in South Korea, Japan, etc. and you get to about half. The 10% that goes to Hong Kong would continue (duh), as well as exports to the rest of Asia, India, the Middle East, Africa, South America, etc.
Furthermore, the half of exports that currently go to the west wouldn't disappear. It'd be the same shell game we saw with Russian oil. WalMart won't let their shelves sit empty -- they'll increase purchases from other countries (Viet Nam, Malaysia, Mexico, etc.). And existing customers of those countries will have to turn to China. Despite disruptions (and severe inflation), markets and shippers will adjust.
For the sake of argument let's say half of China's 3.6T exports are to the west and half of those actually go away entirely. That's still 2.7T of exports, enough to fund 100% of their imports. And they won't even need all 2.7T of imports any more (e.g. no need to buy so many iPhone chips if they no longer export iPhones). So they'd still run a trade surplus, just not nearly as big.
And forget about mass unemployment. They'll keep those workers busy doing something.
Sure. Especially for strategic products. But it will be highly inflationary. The politicians neglect to tell you that part.
I guarantee Chinese demand for goods is higher than current consumption. That's why consumption grows every year. It'd just grow faster for a few years.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
They actually had mass unemployment during COVID, just that as I pointed out, it wasn't enough to threaten the regime, given they had strong control of the media, plus the police can easily control any unrest.
Growth in demand doesn't mean they have a lack of capacity to satisfy domestic demand for consumer goods. Losing the export market simply means they would have an overcapacity.
The more the Russians fight among themselves, the better we all are.
It's a trope that Biden is senile. He definitely isn't. He dealt with heckling during his state of the union speech that was amazing and he pivoted to take them on in a heartbeat. He also exercises regularly and is in excellent health for his age.
When my father was 80 I want on a hike with him and had trouble keeping up with him. I was in my mid-30s (he was 46 when I was born).
The reason Biden stumbles over his words is he had a very severe stutter when he was a kid. He was able to manage it with therapy, but often the therapy leaves the ex-stutterer with aphasia which he has. When he talks his mind is constantly engaged to overcome the stutter and it causes him to pause awkwardly and pick the wrong words.
I can't imagine Biden's predecessor taking a trip like this.
I take issue with some of Biden's policies. I don't agree 100% with any politician, but he has been an extremely effective leader both with Congress and on the world stage. I never thought he was the one, but it looks like he might be the president to sweep in the next US political system.
Political systems is a historians model for different phases of American political history. The different systems were brought in by George Washington, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan.
Except Russia isn't communist, it's a straight up dictatorship. Russia isn't going to join forces with anyone if they aren't the dominant partner and they would be subservient to China in any strong alliance.
China has demonstrated that they don't have any interest in taking more territory. The Belt and Road Initiative brings other countries under Chinese influence and makes them client states. The countries remain controlled by their own people, but the Chinese just take their resources. If Russia breaks apart, that's likely what China would do to the countries that emerge in the eastern part of Russia.
Hong Kong doesn't consume 10% of Chinese output. It was reported in one source that way and it's often been repeated, but most of the 10% that goes to Hong Kong is exported. In many cases to other Chinese customers, so the US and Europe are taking more Chinese goods than the top line numbers.
China has been doing busy work for some time to keep employment up. That's why they have entire cities that are empty. But they have begun to tear down the overbuilt cities and there are signs they can't keep the busywork going much longer.
The longer term trends are China is heading into a tight labor market though, which will drive up the cost of labor and make them less attractive as a manufacturing center.
Some economists suspect the Chinese economy actually shrank last year, but China is reporting it grew at a smaller rate. China's model for the economy relies on large economic growth it just can't sustain. No economy can grow by leaps and bounds year to year and needs to slow down eventually.
