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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
I don't really know what to say this morning. There is a meme with a Ukrainian soldier watching updates on a laptop as he is surrounded by popcorn-that is about it.
Yesterday I wondered where the FSB was in all this...today I read that a General has seized one of the main military complexes in Moscow.
MOD is frantically putting up road blocks and MOD soldiers joining Wagner, they can't even pull soldiers out of Ukraine because...they might join Wagner.
Wagner is backed by some of the top oligarchs. Obviously not backed by others.
Yesterday I wondered where the FSB was in all this...today I read that a General has seized one of the main military complexes in Moscow.
MOD is frantically putting up road blocks and MOD soldiers joining Wagner, they can't even pull soldiers out of Ukraine because...they might join Wagner.
Wagner is backed by some of the top oligarchs. Obviously not backed by others.
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Yesterday I was discussing that thing with my spouse. The first place I go for Ukraine information is usually here. Most early outlook is here. Then to other sources.
Every day I am amazing how much excellent information is here on so many diverse subjects.
Corollary: Tesla ownership appeals to well-informed people.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Allegedly:
EDIT: Or not...
The fog of Civil War in a Fascist Dystopian Military Dictatorship...
EDIT: Or not...
The fog of Civil War in a Fascist Dystopian Military Dictatorship...
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This weekend, we finally get an answer to the burning question: "Does Russia have the 2nd Best Army in Russia?"
Budmo!
I don't think so. One thing any dictator is mortally afraid of is being over thrown. Pulling off a fake coup for some reason is something they wouldn't even contemplate.
I have seen people speculate that this is some kind of US CIA op, and speculation that this is some kind of kubuki theater put on for some unknown reason. Neither are true, this is a real coup/civil war/mutiny. It's really happening.
Someone else posted a 10 hour old thread from Kamil Galeev predicting that this rebellion will fail. The way things have played out since then, I think this rebellion has legs. It could still fail or a Prigozhin government could fall apart, but Russia is going to go through some changes in the next week or two.
Russia does hinge on who controls Moscow and the loyalty of the troops is questionable throughout Russia. The FSO has 50,000 employees, but it's like the US Department of Homeland Security. That 50,000 people includes border guards, people to protect VIPs, office workers and the like. The people capable of actually fighting are small and Wagner is starting with a force of 25,000. Prigozhin has gained allied forces throughout the last 24 hours. He probably has doubled his forces at least.
I think the two most likely scenarios are either a straight up coup where Prigozhin takes over the country, or it will develop into a full blown civil war that will go on for a while.
Prigozhin is probably the best battlefield commander Russia has, but that doesn't necessarily translate into someone who can run a country. It probably doesn't. I've noticed Prigozhin doesn't really seem to understand supply logistics very well. Generals who become good political leaders are usually good logisticians.
You beat me to it. I was about to post that.
This:
That guy speaks excellent English but he's wearing a Russian flag on his arm.
I also saw a Tweet from Igor Sushko that said Putin tried to fly into Kazakhstan, but was refused entry.
One thing Prigozhin has done is cut off most of the supply lines into Ukraine. Rostov was a major supply hub and that is in Wagner's hands now. Russian troops in Ukraine were already facing some severe supply shortages and now it's just gotten much worse. On top of that morale was already very low in the Russian forces in Ukraine, but now they will plummet. Nobody is going to have any motivation to fight a pointless war in a foreign country when their own country is devolving into civil war.
I don't see how Russia can continue the war in Ukraine much longer. Especially if the fight with Wagner drags out more than a couple of days. Russia's military is very centralized, local commanders have very little say in what they do, but there probably won't be any orders coming from Moscow for a while. Commanders with a little self initiative may decide to pull back into Russia and probably join Wagner. The ones with no initiative will sit in place and get slaughtered by the Ukrainian army.
With Rostov out of Russian army control, all the air assets there have fled. There will be less air support from that direction. In addition as supply starts to dry up, all support will dry up too.
Russia has 90% of the entire army in Ukraine right now. They are completely out of position to do much of anything in the civil war without completely giving up their positions in Ukraine and fleeing. Additionally they are at the end of an already somewhat tenuous supply line too. Prigozhin's force isn't huge, but they are one of the best military units in the Russian army and they are the only competent force on Russian soil right now.
I give them at least a 50% chance of capturing Moscow within a few days.
Hopefully Prigozhin wasn't blowing smoke with his talk that the whole Ukraine war was a huge mistake. If he does take control and keeps to his word, he will be looking to end the war ASAP and blaming it all on Putin. If he really wants things to go smoothly and fast he will give Ukraine back their land and possibly return their kidnapped citizens (the ones they can find). Reparations are probably not going to be on the table though. Russia won't be able to afford it.
Girkin translation is so funny. Trying to sit on fence and look important. So the FSB is fence sitting...that's what I take out of this. So what about the GRU- they are in some ways far nastier. GRU backed the formation of Wagner years ago....they were trying to duplicate Blackwater...
Key highlights:
Planes are leaving Moscow
Presidential plane headed to St Pete- Putins powerbase.
Chechans heading to Rostov on Don - a long column of APCs and trucks. What we really want to see is Chechan and Wagner units fighting
Planes are leaving Moscow
Presidential plane headed to St Pete- Putins powerbase.
Chechans heading to Rostov on Don - a long column of APCs and trucks. What we really want to see is Chechan and Wagner units fighting
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dreadnought
Member
Now would be a good time for another visit into Belgorod. Paging the Russian Liberation Army - or was it Liberation Army of Russia? - anyway, you know who you are.
navguy12
Active Member
Having little bomblets mixed in with his batch of popcorn is hilarious.
Just like it was fun to read and watch TSLAQ on twitter during the TSLA run up, it is fun to watch and read Russia Today
“ Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) chief Sergey Naryshkin denounced the ongoing coup as “treason,” branding it “the most terrible crime, which cannot be justified by any past merits.” Meanwhile, he said that the attempt to spark a “civil war” in the country has already failed, with Russian society demonstrating “civic maturity.””
Wagner PMC ‘armed coup’ attempt in Russia: All the latest news
“ Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) chief Sergey Naryshkin denounced the ongoing coup as “treason,” branding it “the most terrible crime, which cannot be justified by any past merits.” Meanwhile, he said that the attempt to spark a “civil war” in the country has already failed, with Russian society demonstrating “civic maturity.””
Wagner PMC ‘armed coup’ attempt in Russia: All the latest news
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
I'd love to see all Russians leave Ukraine to pick sides at home and NATO peacekeeping forces invited in to fill the void until Ukraine can rebuild sufficiently and stabilize their boarders. Wishful thinking, I know.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Honestly, this is prime-time for back-channel communications with Prigozhin. If he makes credible claims of intent to withdraw all Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, then that should be allowed to happen. I think that's why the bridges leading East are still standing.
We do not want to create another post-war-world like after 1917's deeply flawed and self-serving Treaty of Versaille. It just guaranteed to prolong the conflict for the next generation. We need a Marshall Plan, including some of these key points:
- staged lifting of sanctions in return for specific verifiable milestones
- security guarantees for both countries along the 1991 borders
- responsible parties brought before a war-crimes tribunal in The Hague
- rebuiding both Ukraine and Russia, w/o the corruption spiral-of-greed
- road-map to denuclearize Russia's military (civil nuclear power only)
- return of a smaller Russia to the family of nations w/o a UN Veto
Budmo!
