Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SmokyPeat]

On the 11th day of Christmas....

Shooting Down 11 Jets In 11 Days, Ukraine Nudges The Russian Air Force Closer To Organizational Death-Spiral

The Russian air force lost another Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber on Thursday, the Ukrainian air force claimed. Its seventh in 11 days.

www.forbes.com

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Two more Su-34 down, three in total today.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

As mentioned Article 5 was invoked after 9/11 when the US was attacked. NATO has intervened in other places. The first was the former Yugoslavia when it became clear that the UN was not going to send peacekeepers. There was controversy at the time because it was a war started by NATO and NATO is a defensive alliance. It worked, but it does give Russia reason to fear NATO attacking them. [My u.] [...

No. It was not "a war started by NATO".

 

[Crutonius]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/29/putin-russia-state-union-speech-military/

That's an unusually strong reaction to what was sort of an off the cuff remark by Macron. It makes me think he's terrified by the prospect.

 

[SmokyPeat]

How many times has Putin made nuclear threats over the last 2 years? Most people stop giving the threats much credence after the first dozen or so.

 

[Crutonius]

Well yeah. I don't think there's ever been a move where he doesn't threaten a nuclear strike. It's almost his catchphrase by now.

It's just that in this case there's almost a hint of desperation about it. It strikes me as odd.

 

[whisperingshad]

If you are prepared to give up Alaska, I suspect at least one poster here will not be happy.

The whole idea behind defending allies is, one day you might need their help, and don't reward aggressive wars of conquest, unless you want one in your own backyard.

When was the one time in history all of NATO came to the aid of an alliance member who was attacked? Clue - It wasn't in Europe.

Alaska is a U.S. state, not going anywhere lol. Nukes equalize, if you are willing to use or they think you will

 

[growler23]

It's not really the Oil flowing out (or the assets within) I am concerned about, it's the Money flowing back into Russia. As banks don't agree to stop the money flowing to Russia, I'd stop the pipelines, which will result in stopping the money from flowing to Russia (for whatever the pipe contents). If there is any prepaid content, tough luck. Next time vet your vendors more carefully, there are risks to any business transaction.

Ah, but here is what Putin knows, and what makes this whole war workable for him (not as workable as he hoped though): Russia is not a minor player in global oil. They are huge. They produce about what Saudi does (source below) and a solid 70% or more of what the US produces - and IIRC the USA are the biggest.
If the Russian spigot were shut off, the world oil price would spike for real. Forget any democratic leader or even Western party currently in power being re-elected. Forget the post-pandemic recovery. Hell, we might be talking blood in the streets in places far from the war zone. We are talking major oil shock to a world that unfortunately still needs tons of it to survive.
This is why the Biden admin pulled together a coalition of the willing to cooperate to force Russia, and only Russia, to sell at a discount. It has worked to reduce the flow of money back to Russia, but it has worked worse every year as Russia have hired more and more uninsured "shadow fleet" tankers to "launder" their oil - but it has kept the world economy from collapsing. The West has shown remarkable restraint about these tankers so far, IMO. If one or two had unexplained "EV fires" on them, the cost to Russia of hiring these guys - by definition uninsured - might go through the roof.
This oil supply dependency is one thing Putin counted on to subdue international reactions to his invasion. It has made bold moves like "no more buyers of Russian oil" impossible (and, really, I doubt anyone could have stopped India or probably even Turkey from buying anyway), but it has reduced the monetary fuel to his war machine.
IIRC he also counted on his natural gas supply to keep Europe in line, and it probably has had some effect, but it sure accelerated their efforts to get off it.
This is all from stuff I've read since the war started - if anyone knows more detail on the global energy industry, please correct or fill in detail.
Oil suppliers source data (2022 - maybe someone has a newer one) :
Oil production

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs on X:

"
We declare red lines for ourselves, but not for Russia. We publicly tie our own hands while leaving Putin free to pillage, rape and destroy. We create strategic transparency, not strategic ambiguity. It’s time to change course.
Putin is prepared to cross borders, subvert democratic governments, ignore treaties and rewrite the past in an attempt to legitimise the invasion and annexation of his so-called “lands of historic Russian interest”.
Putin threatens NATO with nuclear missiles, trains his armed forces for invasions, puts his economy into war mode, uses chemical weapons and orders assassinations on NATO soil. He has weaponised migrants, engaged in cyber attacks and launched disinformation campaigns.
And what about our response? We have taken every opportunity to declare what we are NOT going to do. We have imposed red lines on ourselves and announced them openly, while our adversary operates without any.
We are an open book to Putin, he expects that tomorrow will bring neither Taurus nor ATACMS nor even sufficient amounts of ammunition. He wakes up every day knowing there will be no strategic dilemmas that would shift his calculations, either on the battlefield or beyond.
If anyone thinks Putin has regard for our gestures of restraint and alters his behaviour accordingly, they are choosing to live in an illusion. He perceives caution as weakness and an invitation to keep going.
Russia retains the initiative and continues escalating. Our failure to meet this strategy with a sufficient response is the reason for the escalation, not a path to de-escalation. This is the main reason for anxiety on the eastern flank that Putin might test Article 5.
Our unilateral attempts at de-escalation are not leading to the de-escalation of anything. If we do not change our approach, we might find ourselves dealing with a seismic geopolitical disaster. And a global one, at that.
Therefore it is imperative to change our approach, embrace strategic ambiguity, break taboos and include all available options in our toolkit. Such suggestions should be welcomed, not dismissed
If we think defeat can be limited to Ukraine, and Putin will have no further ambitions, we have a very harsh lesson coming. But if we want Ukraine to win we must keep everything we have on the table. [My bold.]
"

twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1762891944923963566?t=rWONiUrlEG4DODLalfL91Q&s=07

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762891944923963566

 

[glhs272]

Well spoken.

 

[wdolson]

No. It was not "a war started by NATO".

I miswrote. There was essentially a civil war going on between the pieces of the former Yugoslavia who were fighting one another. NATO made the war an international one by getting involved and it was the first time NATO had gone to war. The fact that NATO was going to war without invoking article 5 and doing so offensively was the controversy.

Well yeah. I don't think there's ever been a move where he doesn't threaten a nuclear strike. It's almost his catchphrase by now.

It's just that in this case there's almost a hint of desperation about it. It strikes me as odd.

It does have a bit more desperation in there than his normal sabre rattling.

Ah, but here is what Putin knows, and what makes this whole war workable for him (not as workable as he hoped though): Russia is not a minor player in global oil. They are huge. They produce about what Saudi does (source below) and a solid 70% or more of what the US produces - and IIRC the USA are the biggest.
If the Russian spigot were shut off, the world oil price would spike for real. Forget any democratic leader or even Western party currently in power being re-elected. Forget the post-pandemic recovery. Hell, we might be talking blood in the streets in places far from the war zone. We are talking major oil shock to a world that unfortunately still needs tons of it to survive.
This is why the Biden admin pulled together a coalition of the willing to cooperate to force Russia, and only Russia, to sell at a discount. It has worked to reduce the flow of money back to Russia, but it has worked worse every year as Russia have hired more and more uninsured "shadow fleet" tankers to "launder" their oil - but it has kept the world economy from collapsing. The West has shown remarkable restraint about these tankers so far, IMO. If one or two had unexplained "EV fires" on them, the cost to Russia of hiring these guys - by definition uninsured - might go through the roof.
This oil supply dependency is one thing Putin counted on to subdue international reactions to his invasion. It has made bold moves like "no more buyers of Russian oil" impossible (and, really, I doubt anyone could have stopped India or probably even Turkey from buying anyway), but it has reduced the monetary fuel to his war machine.
IIRC he also counted on his natural gas supply to keep Europe in line, and it probably has had some effect, but it sure accelerated their efforts to get off it.
This is all from stuff I've read since the war started - if anyone knows more detail on the global energy industry, please correct or fill in detail.
Oil suppliers source data (2022 - maybe someone has a newer one) :
Oil production

I know a bit about the oil biz and what you wrote sums up my understanding well. Once elections in major NATO partners are behind us we might see some more aggression against the flow of Russian oil. This is a particularly touchy year with elections in more than one major NATO partner.

The oil limits have been especially lucrative for India. The Indians have been buying large quantities of Russian oil at the discount rate, often paying rupees for them, then either selling on the crude at the market rate or refining it and selling the distillates at the market rate. The profits have been very high and Russia is getting screwed with the oil they have sold in rupees. There is little that India produces that they want to buy with them and they haven't managed to get them converted to rubles. Or at least that was the situation several months ago. Things may have changed on the money exchange front.

 

[MC3OZ]

['RUSSIA has BANNED the Export of All Gasoline for the next 6 MONTHS. ']

The price cap is being tightened up, with caps on refined products.

We need to remember that OPEC has been reducing production to support prices, there is some excess capacity in the system.

 

[Tiger]

Ah, but here is what Putin knows, and what makes this whole war workable for him (not as workable as he hoped though): Russia is not a minor player in global oil. They are huge. They produce about what Saudi does (source below) and a solid 70% or more of what the US produces - and IIRC the USA are the biggest. If the Russian spigot were shut off, the world oil price would spike for real.

Peak oil is a fairytale. If Oil price goes up, other forms of energy simply become morer attractive. There is no hard demand for oil. Ukraine is working around this by destroying the oil refineries in Russia, one by one.

 

[DanCar]

Unlike most of Ukraine's allies, Finland says go ahead and use our weapons to attack Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762915727932047402

 

[Bouba]

They are literally poking the bear

 

[Tiger]

Unlike most of Ukraine's allies, Finland says go ahead and use our weapons to attack Russia.

The article forgot to mention Finland considers large parts of Russia to be Finnish soil

 

[X Fan]

I miswrote. There was essentially a civil war going on between the pieces of the former Yugoslavia who were fighting one another. NATO made the war an international one by getting involved and it was the first time NATO had gone to war. The fact that NATO was going to war without invoking article 5 and doing so offensively was the controversy.



It does have a bit more desperation in there than his normal sabre rattling.



I know a bit about the oil biz and what you wrote sums up my understanding well. Once elections in major NATO partners are behind us we might see some more aggression against the flow of Russian oil. This is a particularly touchy year with elections in more than one major NATO partner.

The oil limits have been especially lucrative for India. The Indians have been buying large quantities of Russian oil at the discount rate, often paying rupees for them, then either selling on the crude at the market rate or refining it and selling the distillates at the market rate. The profits have been very high and Russia is getting screwed with the oil they have sold in rupees. There is little that India produces that they want to buy with them and they haven't managed to get them converted to rubles. Or at least that was the situation several months ago. Things may have changed on the money exchange front.

“Once elections in major NATO partners are behind us we might see some more aggression against the flow of Russian oil. This is a particularly touchy year with elections in more than one major NATO partner.”

Therein is the problem.

The West, ie led by Biden, are politicians worried about getting re-elected versus leaders that despite impact do the right thing.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Some more about French troops in UKR for those of you that understand French. I do not...

Gabriel Attal : « La Russie est une menace directe et immédiate pour la France sur tous les plans » - Public Sénat

Interrogé au Sénat sur les propos d’Emmanuel Macron, qui n’a pas « exclu » l’envoi de troupes occidentales en Ukraine, le premier ministre a souligné que la Russie avait « changé de posture vis-à-vis (de la France) ». Il a cependant tempéré les propos du Président, soulignant que « quand on...

www.publicsenat.fr

 

[khorton]

Some more about French troops in UKR for those of you that understand French. I do not...

Gabriel Attal : « La Russie est une menace directe et immédiate pour la France sur tous les plans » - Public Sénat

Interrogé au Sénat sur les propos d’Emmanuel Macron, qui n’a pas « exclu » l’envoi de troupes occidentales en Ukraine, le premier ministre a souligné que la Russie avait « changé de posture vis-à-vis (de la France) ». Il a cependant tempéré les propos du Président, soulignant que « quand on...

www.publicsenat.fr

The French Prime Minister made the point, well understood by many here, that Russia is a threat to all of Europe, and that if Ukraine falls the front line will be closer to France. He clarified that any use of French troops being considered would be for training, to man Surface to Air sites, and to protect certain borders.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

The crowds allegedly also chanted something along the lines with 'Russia will be free'.

...] Thousands of mourners lined the streets of Moscow in defiance of Vladimir Putin to mark the funeral of Alexei Navalny.

The crowds chanted “no to the war” and “Putin is a murderer” as the political activist - a prominent critic of Putin and the Kremlin - was laid to rest. [My u.] [...

Thousands Of Mourners Defy Vladimir Putin To Gather For Alexei Navalny's Funeral

The crowd lining the streets in Moscow chanted "no to the war" in defiance of the Russian president.

sg.news.yahoo.com