Saudi Arabia (out of Market Action)

[EVNow]

It is one step forward, one step backward for Saudi Arabia. It seems.

Saudi Arabia Crucifies Someone Amid Canada Spat - The Atlantic

Oh well - they are literally involved in a genocidal war in Yemen with US help.

MBS talks about stopping corruption - but bought a 1/2 Billion Yacht on a whim. Ofcourse talking about corruption was to jail all his potential rivals to the throne. MBS has all the qualities of a ruthless dictator.

 

[neroden]

The regime needs terror to keep the dynasty in power *because* their days are counted. Aligning their interests with organization like Tesla is a good way to change this. If you hope that they lose more (because of past actions), you'll get more violence and terror. My 2 cents.

Edit: do you know one org that invested big in good things but didn't improve in the process?

Pre-WWI Russian monarchy. Great example. Actually, Pre-WWI Prussian/German government too. Arguably the Roman Empire, which built wonderful infrastructure while having worse and worse governance.

Wishing that they can't get onboard (I'm not saying _at the control of the company_, just onboard) is not helping the transition to renewable.

I'm OK with onboard, but I would be much happier if they didn't have any voting stock.

 

[neroden]

I'll try to say this as politely as possible. From my point of view, your information does not agree with my information. KSA, as one of the preeminant leaders of GCC, has been defending against terrible insane massively murdering evil forces including terrorists, and GCC has been using methods to minimize collateral damage that have saved the lives of countless people including misguided and/or enslaved youth and soldiers. The entire enemy propaganda is using the very notion of human rights as a wedge to try to stop the good side from winning by blaming the good people for doing things they aren't doing. The evil propagandists make it seem like the good people are causing all of the mass murders, when in fact it's the evil people doing it in order to blame others; the evil side is so evil, they actually kill their own and use the dead bodies as propaganda against their enemies; it's truly sick. It's literally the difference between good independent societies of liberty vs. evil slavery societies. There is currently a "boogyman", the Iran Mullahs, that fund all of it, but when that gets dismantled (soon), there will likely be leftover (weaker) branches of evil that need to be individually handled, and we need a strong force in the world able to handle that, and that is the GCC for the forseable decades, especially (but not exclusively) in their region.

Literally everything you wrote is wrong. In fact, it's verging on *backwards*. Get out of your brainwashing cult.

Seriously, do some independent research for once. Look up where bin Laden was from, for *starters*. (Saudi Arabia.) Look up what country sent most of the 9/11 hijackers. (Saudi Arabia.) Look up which government is funding madrassas around the world -- hint: it's not Iran, it's Saudi Arabia -- and look up the intolerant, pro-violence, pro-terrorism teachings of those specific madrassas -- the ones funded by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has spread religious intolerance and violence to Bangladesh and Indonesia via its Wahabbi madrassas, and this is *extremely well documented*.

Look up the status of women in Iran -- not great, but basically free to walk around like normal people and go to college.

Look up the status of women in Saudi Arabia -- literally not allowed to leave the home without the permission of a male "guardian" *and* required to be covered from head to toe.

Perhaps you should actually bother to do your research regarding the primary funding for Islamic terrorism in the world. It's Saudi Arabian money.

Saudi Arabia is best described as *barbaric*. You'd prefer to live in Iran over Saudi Arabia any day -- I guarantee it.

 

[neroden]

May have subsequently changed, but when I worked in that region:

-the professionals were invariably western "ex-pats";

-the clerical/technical/merchant support was primarily from India and Pakistan (often the under-compensated "infra-structure" that allowed the system to work), and

-the artisan/skilled craftsmen were sourced based on the required level of skill

-crane and heavy equipment operators were usually "ex-pats,"

-higher-skilled crafts like welders/electricians/instrument techs/etc. from places like the Philippines, India, Pakistan, etc. and

-lesser skilled crafts like masons, pipe-fitters, laborers, etc from regional Muslim countries like Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and even Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, etc.

-as a sop to the conscience of the sheiks, there were local "guards" -- but they either slept or prayed all day.
​

TL/DR: very few displaced indigenous workers in oil kingdoms. To stay in power, the rulers in that region need funds for the life-styles of the natives who do not work.

By all accounts it's actually gotten worse. There are indigenous workers, in the Shia minority who are oppressed and harrassed for their religion. The situation is a huge mess where most of the population of the country aren't in the favored minority. At least they haven't implemented apartheid the way Israel has, but it's still a wildly unstable situation.

This won't be resolved just by reinvesting the country's money.

 

[RobStark]

Oh well - they are literally involved in a genocidal war in Yemen with US help.

.

Saudi-Sunnis are no more genocidal than Iranian backed Houthis.

The Persian Gulf region is not Scandinavia.

 

[neroden]

Saudi-Sunnis are no more genocidal than Iranian backed Houthis.

Actually, they are. I follow this stuff closely. The Houthis are (were) fighting a typical tribal war for power. The Saudis decided to commit indiscriminate carpet bombing. There is NO symmetry. The Saudis are committing mass war crimes in Yemen, and the Houthis simply are not.

 

[EngRyan]

Actually, they are. I follow this stuff closely. The Houthis are (were) fighting a typical tribal war for power. The Saudis decided to commit indiscriminate carpet bombing. There is NO symmetry. The Saudis are committing mass war crimes in Yemen, and the Houthis simply are not.

Well yes but that's partially because the UAE and the Saudi's have some of the best american anti-missile tech money can buy. The Houthis have launched scud missiles supplied by Iran at both countries population centers but they have mostly been shot down. So it's not for lack of trying that the Houthis have done less indiscriminate killing.

That said, other than having a few friends in the areas that I'm not worried about I don't have any skin in the game and don't really care to argue this. The whole area sucks to varying degrees, but thought I'd point that out. And we are getting off topic of this thread, don't want to anger the mods so I'll shut up not.

 

[RobStark]

Actually, they are. I follow this stuff closely. The Houthis are (were) fighting a typical tribal war for power. The Saudis decided to commit indiscriminate carpet bombing. There is NO symmetry. The Saudis are committing mass war crimes in Yemen, and the Houthis simply are not.

People being killed don't care if it is from a Houthi AK-47 fired bullet or from a bomb from the air.

Both sides sequester foreign food and medical aid. Starve people. Withhold medical care and watch them die. Demand bribes to let supplies pass. Shell airports and ports indiscriminately.

Houthis launched a tribal and sectarian war. Without Iranian help it would have failed but it keeps it going for larger hegemonic reasons.

Iran largely controls Iraq, highly influential in Syria, largely controls Lebanon through Hezbollah, backed Shia demonstrators/rioters/insurgents in Bahrain whose Emir might have fallen without Saudi support and now want a client State in Yemen. In effect surrounding Saudi Arabia. Iran also has a client statelet in the Gaza strip through Hamas but that hardly matters in the wider politics of the region.

Yemeni War isn't a tribal affair.

 

[Just a Reader]

Granted, the Saudi government consists of reactionary, repressive, warmongering thugs, yet when has that ever prevented anyone from being America's good friend? Look at how distressed Washington was when that thuggish Shah of Persia was deposed.
I mean, the Saudis buy all these F15s and stuff, they can't be all that bad?

 

[SPadival]

People being killed don't care if it is from a Houthi AK-47 fired bullet or from a bomb from the air.

.. LOL. That is like saying there no difference between a grenade and a nuke.

51 children were killed when Saudi AF bombed their school bus. US provides logistics support to Saudi AF.

Yemen school bus attack: How a day of celebration turned to tragedy - CNN

 

[EVNow]

Granted, the Saudi government consists of reactionary, repressive, warmongering thugs, yet when has that ever prevented anyone from being America's good friend?

Huh ?

That's practically a requirement to be America's good friend

Getting back on subject - if the party in power at the whitehouse changes in 2020, expect a major reversal of policy towards KSA esp. regarding the war in Yemen. Depending on MBS reaction - relations with KSA can go south quite quickly esp. if the KSA - Israel - US alliance no longer works in the ME.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Saudi funds as a >25% share of delisting is merely thetworst case scenario in a very Elon-esque all-in bet. Lots of other folks would want a major piece at $420, especially if profitability is achieved in 3Q/4Q.

Norway was mentioned. Do we really think they wouldn't be interested in owning 10-20% of Tesla if given the opportunity? They have literally a trillion dollars. There's never been more private money floating around.

 

[Ulmo]

I agree that KSA has been on a path of improvement, but they're in a whole different league compared to the USA. Also, I've been to "developing" nations and have seen Saudi money at work, spreading the cancer of Wahhabism.

I found this regarding that:

Spread of Wahhabism was done at request of West during Cold War – Saudi crown prince

Source article: the paragraphs characterized and quoted in the Russian news site above come from the bottom of the below Bezos gossip article about Trump:

Saudi prince denies Kushner is ‘in his pocket’

My response to that is that KSA has been improving more under King Salman and Prince MbS since approximately 2007 and even more since when Trump announced his run in 2015.

We probably have a difference of opinion regarding what the years 2009-2016 were like for morality in the world; it is my opinion the USA government administration did a huge amount of evil, much of which KSA had to counteract at great expense.

I'm glad the Saudis are trying to move toward clean energy, but is Elon so desperate to go private that he has to solicit their funding? I'm not trying to be judgmental, as I realize that Elon has developed "mental scar tissue" for very good, noble reasons, and I can't blame him for growing sick and tired of dealing with the public market and short sellers. If nothing else, though, this isn't good for Tesla's brand or marketing.

It seems most entities with investment money are with competitors to Tesla in software, transportation, or energy. The banks prefer making more money and having more control with Tesla as a public stock. Foreign investors aren't as interested in USA investments as their own local companies that compete against Tesla and USA. It might simply be a case of not enough money from anybody that wants to help.

I don't know why Norway's soveirgn fund never got interested, but knowing the EU, it might already be ruined by EU regulations, or looking for EU partners. (I was thinking longer term KSA and Norway would both invest and want Tesla or Tesla-like factories in their countries, even as they also invest later in other competitors to Tesla, such as any EV or Solar oriented companies in their areas that turn out to have a decent EV or solar program going, which right now doesn't seem that apparent, but should be apparent "any year now". KSA wants to build their own industries from scratch, so any amount of investment KSA does into Tesla is already an improvement from Tesla's market share point of view over having more new direct competitors from KSA; I have no idea if KSA & Tesla are trying to do partnerships, which would get their own mutually beneficial interests.)

 

[bobinfla]

I have to admit that I'm currently feeling a lot less enthusiastic about holding a significant fraction of my portfolio in TSLA. One reason that I've tried to support Tesla and EVs, and buy TSLA shares, is to help reduce the world's dependence on Middle East energy that's controlled by a combination of despotic regimes and Islamic fundamentalists. My primary reason to support Tesla and EVs is to address climate change. However, the prospect of significant Saudi ownership of Tesla just makes me feel icky. If I personally had tens of billions of dollars ready to invest, I'd like to think that I would step forward and eliminate the need for Tesla to take a large amount of Saudi money. But I don't, and I'm now questioning whether I really want to continue over-weighting TSLA.

I mean, if Elon is prepared to tap the Saudis for many billions of dollars, do I really need to "sacrificially" invest in TSLA? I'm now thinking it'd be better to limit TSLA exposure to maybe a few percent of my portfolio (as I would normally do with any individual stock).

I'm also a bit worried about Elon's premature "funding secured" tweet. It sort of reminds me of former President George W. Bush's "mission accomplished" banner early in the Iraq war. I feel that, while Elon was sincere in his intentions, he would have achieved better credibility by simply stating that he was talking to large investors about taking Tesla private.

At the same time, I don't want to just give my "excess" shares to shorts right now, and it would be nice to at least fetch $420 per share. But I don't know. If I sell half of my shares at $357, that's a sure thing and I'll have made money overall. It's sad to have turned into a "weak long"! At least that's my state of mind today.

Hearing lots of sentiment about people here feeling icky about doing business with Saudi Arabia, and pretty much the whole Middle East. One could make an argue that we shouldn't feel all that clean doing business with China either. And definitely not Russia or North Korea. In fact by the time we rule out all the countries that have despotic leaders, don't take care of the environment, don't treat women well, or minority races or religions, either currently or in the last several decades, there may not be anybody left to work with.

What a catch-22, Elon needs to work on funding from Mars, but he hasn't colonized it yet.

 

[Jayjs20]

I'm glad the Saudis are trying to move toward clean energy, but is Elon so desperate to go private that he has to solicit their funding?

Just to set the record straight, Elon didn't go to the Saudis. The Saudis went to Elon, multiple times.

Going back almost two years, the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund has approached me multiple times about taking Tesla private. They first met with me at the beginning of 2017 to express this interest because of the important need to diversify away from oil. They then held several additional meetings with me over the next year to reiterate this interest and to try to move forward with a going private transaction.

Update on Taking Tesla Private

 

[AWDtsla]

This thread, geez. What a double standard. Everyone's been OK with every US administration kissing the Saudi's ass for 50 years, but try and build EV's and a future that doesn't suck with their money and everybody loses their minds.

Try a little bit of pragmatism. It doesn't sting that much.

 

[abasile]

Would you feel the same way about Norway's soverign fund which is used to hedge oil as I understand it? I understand the human right differences but what is wrong with an oil economy recognizing that it is soon going to be faced with a future witout oil?

I would be ecstatic if Norway's sovereign fund were to be a key buyer of TSLA in a going-private deal. Just as I am very happy to see Norway using its oil money to enable the world's highest per-capita EV adoption rate.

Those human rights differences are key to me. In the long run, Saudi Arabia will obviously expect to earn returns from its stake in Tesla. Any issues that I have concerning China's regard for human rights pale in comparison to what we see in Saudi Arabia.

Now, I have no problem with the Saudis acquiring some shares via the open market, as that's beyond Tesla's control. What bothers me is that Elon would actively solicit major Saudi investment.

I don’t get this mentality. Tesla’s mission remains the same. What’s the alternative? Stop supporting Tesla which makes them more likely to fail and then we continue using Saudi oil?!?!!

Elon Musk (or Tesla) doesn't need to ask the Saudis to fund Tesla. The company is poised to show a profit, so there should be no need to ask anyone for additional funding. While this could limit the near-term expansion rate of the company, I'd prefer that Elon not try to go private at any cost.

In any case, I do want Tesla to succeed. If you need an EV, a home battery system, or a solar roof, there's no better alternative. I will continue to be a TSLA shareholder (public or private) and encourage others to buy Tesla products. But I'm now less inclined to leave an outsized proportion of our portfolio in Tesla; it'll become a "normal" investment for us.

 

[abasile]

Everyone's been OK with every US administration kissing the Saudi's ass for 50 years, but try and build EV's and a future that doesn't suck with their money and everybody loses their minds.

I've never been happy with our government's cozy relationship with the Saudis. For me, getting off Mideast energy has always been an EV selling point. There's plenty of other money in the world that can be used to build EVs. I think Elon Musk, as brilliant and awesome as he is, has had a lapse in judgment here.

 

[AWDtsla]

For me, getting off Mideast energy has always been an EV selling point.

So use their money to do it. Sounds like a bonus to me. Imagine taking all of Big Oil's ill-gotten money and just dumping it into pv+wind+storage.

 

[brian45011]

Electrification would lower demand for oil and Saudis would remain as one of the few who can extract cheaply to be profitable.

This can be good or bad. They can blackmail others into submission under the threat of speeding electrification. On the other hand they may also prefer to accelerate so market shrinks and they remain one as one of the few profitable.

Natural hydro-carbons are far better refined into useful chemicals rather than combusted for transportation. Ever looked at a process flow diagram for an oil refinery and the adjacent petro-chemical complex?