Saw a Performance Dual Motor Model 3 today at the track!

[T34ME]

If we're betting on the brain trust, the table tilts decidedly against Tesla. I know its blasphemous for some, but the areas Tesla has the hardest time standing out from (and in some cases, just trying to keep up with) legacy automakers are the legacy metrics. Build quality and consistency, reliability, performance(***) creature comforts, etc. That ratchets up even farther when you look at the Tesla record for how well their "First try" efforts go. A-pack, seats, drive units, door handles, FWD, etc.

That's exactly the same mindset the buggy makers had about Henry Ford, 100 years ago. Where are the buggy makers today?

 

[ℬête Noire]

***As shown by other automakers recently (like Jaguar), Tesla's acceleration advantage has really been a result of their first-to-market electric drivetrain, not any unique capability/secret sauce within that technology.

It's almost as if you'd want your future sales, your production capabilities, your know-how, your brand to be heavily focused on such a drivetrain. Rather than having most of your sales, designs, & efforts relying on the old, fundamentally eclipsed tech.

 

[X Fan]

anyone have a SWAG on when the dual motor will be released?

 

[sitter_k]

That's exactly the same mindset the buggy makers had about Henry Ford, 100 years ago. Where are the buggy makers today?

I don't know if that's an accurate comparison here.

 

[McRat]

anyone have a SWAG on when the dual motor will be released?

I would guess right at the end of the next quarter.

 

[ℬête Noire]

anyone have a SWAG on when the dual motor will be released?

Specs announced late April, orders open in May, first deliveries in early July. About as wild a guess as it gets as we don't have much to go on outside of at least a few thousands with "Mid-2018" in their Delivery Estimator (everyone in Canada plus some early-Day-1 owner reservations).

 

[calvinvle]

Specs announced late April, orders open in May, first deliveries in early July. About as wild a guess as it gets as we don't have much to go on outside of at least a few thousands with "Mid-2018" in their Delivery Estimator (everyone in Canada plus some early-Day-1 owner reservations).

I'm guessing the same, but I think very limited amounts of AWD will be delivered in July, and will not start to ramp up until Aug/Sept. It's like how they delivered 30 cars in Jul-2017 so they could claim the car was released, but it'll be mostly employees. So I'm guessing employees will be July & August, then S & X owners will be September, then non-owners in December.

 

[Swampgator]

Dual motor and performance versions will be released when supply begins to catch up to demand. Not there yet but judging by reservation take rate will be within 3 months.

 

[EfficientWatts]

Specs announced late April, orders open in May, first deliveries in early July. About as wild a guess as it gets as we don't have much to go on outside of at least a few thousands with "Mid-2018" in their Delivery Estimator (everyone in Canada plus some early-Day-1 owner reservations).

Are there people who have access to the configurator that does not show a Mid '18 for AWD within the configurator? Right now the estimator shows Late '18 for me but I see Mid '18 in the configurator.

 

[brkaus]

Both show mid 2018 for me.

 

[bxr140]

That's exactly the same mindset the buggy makers had about Henry Ford, 100 years ago.

That's not really the right analogy...and even if you tried to shoe-horn Henry Ford into context here, its actually kind of be the opposite of what you're suggesting. In fact, Tesla is not trying to build a better bmw M3 just as Ford was not trying to build a better buggy. In both cases the protagonists were/are focused on building an overall superior transportation product based on the emerging and often self-invented technology/concepts of the day.

A more appropriate analogy would be supercars and hypercars. Newcomers don't try to beat the "whole package" products from the big names on their first try and instead focus their efforts on the areas where they can stand out from the likes of Ferrari, McLaren, Porsche, etc.

 

[ℬête Noire]

That's not really the right analogy...and even if you tried to shoe-horn Henry Ford into context here, its actually kind of be the opposite of what you're suggesting. In fact, Tesla is not trying to build a better bmw M3 just as Ford was not trying to build a better buggy. In both cases the protagonists were/are focused on building an overall superior transportation product based on the emerging and often self-invented technology/concepts of the day.

You weren't talking about "build a better bmw".

You were talking about how those silly upstarts doing a new thing, with a new approach, can't possibly accomplish goals better than the old guard doing things the old way. And if you think this is only about transportation or a shift in world's energy usage, you haven't been paying attention. The same as with Ford where it wasn't only about transportation, that was just part of the outcome of what was a much more broadly applicable underlying transformation.

As did Ford differentiated his company from all the buggy makers [et al] before him, Musk is also aiming at a transformation in manufacturing.

Whether he accomplishes that part remains much more in question than the now nearly inevitable transformation of transportation and energy use.

 

[T34ME]

In both cases the protagonists were/are focused on building an overall superior transportation product based on the emerging and often self-invented technology/concepts of the day. .

I was under the impression that is what Tesla is doing. Elon Musk will go down as the Henry Ford of the 21st Century.

 

[bxr140]

You weren't talking about "build a better bmw".

You were talking about how those silly upstarts doing a new thing, with a new approach, can't possibly accomplish goals better than the old guard doing things the old way.

LOL. Unfortunately, this is what happens when people spend less time considering and more time conflating.

Context here is Tesla building a better handling car than the BMW. Available evidence universally suggests they will not.

I was under the impression that is what Tesla is doing. Elon Musk will go down as the Henry Ford of the 21st Century.

I'm glad I could clear up your confusion.

 

[R.S]

Dual motor and performance versions will be released when supply begins to catch up to demand. Not there yet but judging by reservation take rate will be within 3 months.

I don't know, how high is demand for the first production version in the US? I guess many will at least want to know what they are missing by not selecting AWD, or how expensive it will be. Sure right now there are still tons of people wanting that car, compared to how many Tesla can actually produce, but with production rates now reaching 2k a week, I guess pretty soon they will have to add the AWD models.

They even started selling to Canada, though that might also have another reason.

Also, they make more money. And that might be the main reason for adding those two.

 

[ℬête Noire]

LOL. Unfortunately, this is what happens when people spend less time considering and more time conflating.

Then spend mare time considering what you write before hitting Post Reply and perhaps you'll stop doing that.

 

[DrDabbles]

buggy

buggy

You two know that Henry Ford was competing with other automobile makers and not buggies, right? Karl Benz was competing with buggies with his Motorwagen. Ford was trying to produce automobiles faster and cheaper to sell to a larger market.

 

[Swampgator]

You two know that Henry Ford was competing with other automobile makers and not buggies, right? Karl Benz was competing with buggies with his Motorwagen. Ford was trying to produce automobiles faster and cheaper to sell to a larger market.

Not really. Automobiles were too costly at that time for the average family to purchase one. Ford knew if he could get the cost down by mass production that he could increase the adoption of autos vs horse and buggy.
This is directly analogous to what Tesla is trying to do. Get the cost down to parity with existing transportation options (ICE) so that the average buyer will see the EV is superior to ICE and be able to afford making the switch. Tesla is competing with ICE and not other EVs as almost every magazine and blog seems to assume.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Specs announced late April, orders open in May, first deliveries in early July. About as wild a guess as it gets as we don't have much to go on outside of at least a few thousands with "Mid-2018" in their Delivery Estimator (everyone in Canada plus some early-Day-1 owner reservations).

I 100% agree with this. Elon has stated he wants the company to be cash flow positive in Q3 2018 and the dual motor will be the 2nd highest margin Model 3 (2nd only to the P version). Selling the 3LRD would help hit that goal.

 

[Olle]

They make *two* drive units for the Model S/X, which isn't that many. And I think that if they were starting from scratch now, they'd probably go for just one, and go for one motor at the front and two at the rear.

I hope they go for that solution for the Model 3/Y. It would be a cost-effective solution with lots of power and versatility.

Agreed that they will probably just have one motor version. Maybe they will work with a few different inverters to save some money on mosfets depending on performance version, Semi or Roadser?? Elon said that the Semi has model 3 motors, then there is no need for a bigger or double, rear motors in the performance Model 3. Why?
Semi accelerates 0-60 in 20 seconds with 80000 Lbs. 3840 Lbs/80000 Lbs x 20 sec x4/2 motors=0-60 in 1.92 sec. Yes, aero drag and traction wasn't part of this equation, but otherwise, weight and power are fairly proportional to acceleration. Looks like 3PD will be traction limited if Tesla taps its motors for the full 'Semi' power level.