Second Reveal Date

[Boourns]

I am not sure whether this is old news, but I noticed this autoblog article today. The quote from the Elon email implies that Tesla will reach full Model 3 production by the time Q4 2017 numbers are reported. Am I reading that correctly?

I thought it was important to write you a note directly to let you know how critical this quarter is. The third quarter will be our last chance to show investors that Tesla can be at least slightly positive cash flow and profitable before the Model 3 reaches full production.

Now might be the best time ever to buy a Tesla

 

[HankLloydRight]

My question is will we see more mules on the road before the second reveal event?

Probably not. At a recent Fremont factory tour, I asked about this, and our host, in not so many words, said that most of the Model 3 road testing will be done as well disguised Model S cars. They could be driving among us as we speak and not even know it (unless you look closely).

The big unknown is how much the car will change from Reveal Part 1, if at all.

Externally, probably very, very little. My perception of the "Part 2" of the M3 reveal is going to be about everything else we *didn't* already see at Part 1. Things like a more developed center console/touchscreen. Or the highly speculated Head Up DIsplay ("like a spaceship" I think EM said), or what M3 Autopilot will or won't include, or even what the interior will really look like. The M3 prototype we saw in March had very simple interiors, basically enough to "get by". I doubt the final M3 will look anything like those prototypes inside. The Part 1 of the reveal was basically the body styling, the all-glass roof, the door handles, the trunk and the missing instrument console. Part 2 will be everything else.

 

[30seconds]

I am not sure whether this is old news, but I noticed this autoblog article today. The quote from the Elon email implies that Tesla will reach full Model 3 production by the time Q4 2017 numbers are reported. Am I reading that correctly?

Now might be the best time ever to buy a Tesla

I don't conclude that. I conclude that they will be cash flow positive sometime after the launch of Model 3 but before full production levels. So, maybe in 1H 2018

 

[amb3rgris]

I am not sure whether this is old news, but I noticed this autoblog article today. The quote from the Elon email implies that Tesla will reach full Model 3 production by the time Q4 2017 numbers are reported. Am I reading that correctly?

I'm not sure where you're getting the Q4 2017 time line. My reading of the email is:
1. Elon expects Q4 2016 to have a ton of expenditures to support the M3 production.
2. Therefore, this quarter (Q3 2016) is the last quarter before those costs start showing up in their SEC filings. It would be great to kill the "Tesla loses x$ for every car they sell" FUD by showing that they can be GAAP profitable with their current business.
3. Once the M3 reaches "full production," Elon is assuming that Tesla will be profitable, as those revenues are huge, and hopefully the bulk of the cost is in the past.

I don't see any mention of a "Q4 2017" timeline.

And I think it will be interesting to see what the post-M3 Tesla capex looks like. If things go according to plan, they'll have to keep shelling out $$$ for more service centers, SuperChargers, another factory, another Gigafactory, R&D for pickup trucks, semi's, buses, SolarCity costs, etc etc.

 

[dsvick]

My question is will we see more mules on the road before the second reveal event?

We read a few months ago that Tesla ordered parts to make 300 or so test vehicles. Will these all be handmade? Prototype tooling? Production tooling?

They are not going to make 300 vehicles out of all of those parts. They'll make a few, likely hand made and as tests for all the tooling. Most of the parts will be used in various other places and for other testing and validation purposes. I wouldn't expect to see any sort of mule on the road - even if you could recognize it - until they have the first few coming off of the completed line as tests.

 

[Boourns]

I'm not sure where you're getting the Q4 2017 time line. My reading of the email is:
1. Elon expects Q4 2016 to have a ton of expenditures to support the M3 production.
2. Therefore, this quarter (Q3 2016) is the last quarter before those costs start showing up in their SEC filings. It would be great to kill the "Tesla loses x$ for every car they sell" FUD by showing that they can be GAAP profitable with their current business.
3. Once the M3 reaches "full production," Elon is assuming that Tesla will be profitable, as those revenues are huge, and hopefully the bulk of the cost is in the past.

I don't see any mention of a "Q4 2017" timeline.

And I think it will be interesting to see what the post-M3 Tesla capex looks like. If things go according to plan, they'll have to keep shelling out $$$ for more service centers, SuperChargers, another factory, another Gigafactory, R&D for pickup trucks, semi's, buses, SolarCity costs, etc etc.

Sorry, I meant Q4 2016. But you answered my question anyway I think. I took this:

"The third quarter will be our last chance to show investors that Tesla can be at least slightly positive cash flow and profitable before the Model 3 reaches full production."

to mean that the Model 3 will reach full production by the time the Q4 2016 filings are due. But I think you are right in that "last chance to show positive cash flow" might simply means he anticipates that costs associated with the ramp up preclude any possibility of profitability after this quarter.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Sorry, I meant Q4 2016. But you answered my question anyway I think. I took this:

"The third quarter will be our last chance to show investors that Tesla can be at least slightly positive cash flow and profitable before the Model 3 reaches full production."

to mean that the Model 3 will reach full production by the time the Q4 2016

You do realize that the Model 3 production line isn't even built yet? They've barely started to clear out the space for it in the factory, much less actually started building out the line.

 

[Boourns]

You do realize that the Model 3 production line isn't even built yet? They've barely started to clear out the space for it in the factory, much less actually started building out the line.

Yeah that's why I was confused by the Elon quote. I didn't see how it would be possible that Tesla would be making any Model 3s, much less be at "full production" by the time of Q4 filings. But I realized after seeing @amb3rgris's how I was misreading the quote.

 

[FirstSea]

Yeah that's why I was confused by the Elon quote. I didn't see how it would be possible that Tesla would be making any Model 3s, much less be at "full production" by the time of Q4 filings. But I realized after seeing @amb3rgris's how I was misreading the quote.

Elon is saying Tesla has to show positive cash flow by the Q4 2016, since after that they will start investing into model 3 production and to do that they need money from investors, who won't invest into Tesla if they continue to "lose" money. It doesn't mean the actual production starts after Q4 2016, but rather that quarter marks the start of Tesla's well known "cash burning" strategy, which scares the pants off investors.

 

[Red Sage]

Meh. Who needs pants anyway?

 

[PaulJB]

 

[S'toon]

Meh. Who needs pants anyway?

Utilikilts We Sell Freedom! Utilikilts

 

[Red Sage]

Utilikilts We Sell Freedom! Utilikilts

Now you're talkin'! One of these days, I'm gonna have to get these for my Brothers...

 

[Cascadian]

Just watch out for windy days!

 

[Garlan Garner]

I wish Tesla would put out data on the M3 as data has been provided on the Bolt.

Chevrolet Bolt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Red Sage]

View attachment 195224
Just watch out for windy days!

Someone didn't opt for the Sailor Moon edition!

 

[S'toon]

View attachment 195224
Just watch out for windy days!

Not a problem with the Utilikilt. From their product description:

Loop & Toggle Modesty closure system (closes the pleats up while still looking good)

It's the bane of Jennie Breeden and her annual Men in Kilts (with Leaf Blower) by Jennie Breeden (Calendar) - Lulu

 

[ModelNforNerd]

The current referral program ends October 15th, and:

"10 Qualifying Referrals
Owners who make 10 qualifying referrals will receive an invitation for two to attend our next Tesla unveiling event."

I believe last time the referral program ended, "winners" were invited to the Gigafactory opening.

And the time before that? To the Model 3 event.

So using the loose definition of "Tesla unveiling event", it's likely the October 15th winners get invited to something roughly 6 weeks following the end of the referral program, if previous timing means anything this time around.

So......early to mid December?


Referral Program

 

[dsvick]

I wish Tesla would put out data on the M3 as data has been provided on the Bolt.

Chevrolet Bolt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Model 3 is a lot further from productiion than the Bolt so there is likely a lot less info to put out. Also, keep in mind the info in the site you linked is not neccesarilly published or maintained by Chevy.

 

[Mkorpal]

The current referral program ends October 15th, and:

"10 Qualifying Referrals
Owners who make 10 qualifying referrals will receive an invitation for two to attend our next Tesla unveiling event."

I believe last time the referral program ended, "winners" were invited to the Gigafactory opening.

And the time before that? To the Model 3 event.

So using the loose definition of "Tesla unveiling event", it's likely the October 15th winners get invited to something roughly 6 weeks following the end of the referral program, if previous timing means anything this time around.

So......early to mid December?


Referral Program

By then, we could be talking about a solar product, like the solar roof there were murmurs about.