Seeking opinions: Upgrade now to FSD or wait?

[Daniellane]

If you believe giving Tesla money now will prevent disappoinment in the future, please take a second to rethink that.

I do regret not getting FSD @ $3,000 with purchase.
We have both a 2018 Model S 100D AP2.5 MCU2 and a 2018 Model 3.
I have free Supercharging & a 6 year loan on the Model S, so keeping it for a while has it’s obvious advantages.
I have also been wondering if Tesla will make concessions on FSD Procing for those who allow their Model 3s to be on the Tesla Ride Sharing Network?

 

[KyleDay]

I do regret not getting FSD @ $3,000 with purchase.
We have both a 2018 Model S 100D AP2.5 MCU2 and a 2018 Model 3.
I have free Supercharging & a 6 year loan on the Model S, so keeping it for a while has it’s obvious advantages.
I have also been wondering if Tesla will make concessions on FSD Procing for those who allow their Model 3s to be on the Tesla Ride Sharing Network?

Ah. Even better. "Buy our car now, you'll be able to use it and make money on the ride sharing network later." That's a level further down into the inception.

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE my Tesla. But, spending money now for a vaguely "dependent upon regulatory authority" future is called speculation, not an investment.

 

[suraj1194]

As an AP1 owner I’d like to ask, WHAT is FSD ? AP1 is clearly SAE Level 2 . AP2 is still arguably at parity level with AP1, and thus also Level 2 at the moment . The SAE levels are : http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/files/blogimages/LevelsofDrivingAutomation.pdf

I do not see L3 , L4 and L5 as linear steps up ADAS capability level . Rather, they each get much harder to achieve . It’s also not clear which of them is Tesla FSD .

 

[bluelines]

I love my MS 100D, but I continue to find the discussions about FSD bizarre. It seems pretty obvious that it doesn't exist at all, and that there is no prospect of it existing for years, even leaving aside the regulatory issues. I know the cameras vs. LIDAR issue has been beaten to death, but it does seem crazy that anyone could believe that a purely camera based system with today's processors can deal with level 4 or 5 autonomy (and probably will struggle to deal with level 3 in a completely safe and reliable way). Personally I think it's wishful thinking and literally throwing money away.

It does show how successful Musk's cult of personality has become though. No other car maker CEO could sell a "some time in the future" option for thousands of dollars, or have the nerve to say that the only reason it's not available is for nebulous "regulatory" reasons.

 

[D.E.]

I have a 2017 AP2.5 S90D that I purchased with EAP but not FSD. I figured I would just drop the dough on FSD when the actual product dropped. In the meanwhile I've seen a number of unexpected pricing changes across the Teslasphere including the FSD product. I asked customer service about the price change for FSD and the email I got back was:

"Thanks for reaching out, as of today, Tesla will honor the $4,000 pricing for anyone that ordered a car on or before 6/25/18. This will be done entirely on the back-end, you can order now with $5,000 shown and be assured you will get a $1,000 refund or wait for the price to be updated for the full self driving. Keep in mind this pricing is always subject to change."
​

I'm considering just plunking down the $4k now to lock in the pricing and somewhat nebulous terms of FSD now before Tesla makes any other changes to that program. On the other hand, it sure seems like when I bought my car a year ago, it was clear that FSD would be a $4k upgrade in the future, not necessarily subject to a changing price.

I have to imagine that I'm in the position of most owners, what are you guys doing about this? Interested in your thoughts.

I may have given you bad advice. I just saw this.
Tesla reportedly starts incentivized Full Self-Driving beta test program for employees

FSD may be a lot closer than I thought.

 

[diplomat33]

3 things make me think that we may be closer to FSD than people think:
1) The new "FSD" computer chip set to be released Spring of next year.
2) Tesla apparently recruiting employees to beta test FSD.
3) V9 being released now that not just uses more cameras but also gives us a real new EAP feature, "navigate on autopilot" that appears to bring EAP closer to self-driving on the highway.

 

[ucmndd]

3 things make me think that we may be closer to FSD than people think:
1) The new "FSD" computer chip set to be released Spring of next year.

If the “new thing” Tesla has just around the corner gives you hope or makes you optimistic, you must have been living under a rock for the past 3 years.

This is straight up delusional given all observable evidence.

 

[diplomat33]

If the “new thing” Tesla has just around the corner gives you hope or makes you optimistic, you must have been living under a rock for the past 3 years.

This is straight up delusional given all observable evidence.

It's NOT just a "new thing". First, it's a computer chip fast enough to handle FSD. Also, it's all 3 points taken together than give me hope for FSD. A computer chip capable of FSD calculations + beta testing FSD + new Autopilot feature. If it was just "we might have a super fast computer chip", no, that would not give me hope for FSD. But when Tesla develops a faster chip AND more importantly starts a program to actually beta test FSD, AND pushes out a new AP feature where the car can navigate highway directions on its own, yes that makes things a little bit more credible.

 

[boonedocks]

When I ordered my 2017 S100D I added FSD due to the Tesla / Elon hype and video of FSD. (Tweets and videos available).

So we all know where and how that ended up. When we ordered my wife’s X75D we did NOT order the FSD option pipe dream

Now 3.5 months shy of my S being 2 years old and 54k miles will I ever see FSD on my S before it ends up in the recycle bin ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Save you money

 

[ucmndd]

It's NOT just a "new thing". First, it's a computer chip fast enough to handle FSD.

Yep, so was AP2 in October 2016.

Also, it's all 3 points taken together than give me hope for FSD. A computer chip capable of FSD calculations + beta testing FSD + new Autopilot feature. If it was just "we might have a super fast computer chip", no, that would not give me hope for FSD. But when Tesla develops a faster chip AND more importantly starts a program to actually beta test FSD, AND pushes out a new AP feature where the car can navigate highway directions on its own, yes that makes things a little bit more credible.

I feel for you. You’re just like I was in October 2016. Tesla just showed an amazing video to the world that demonstrated “real” full self driving in beta, on a new computer that was fast enough to handle it. The AP feature to allow the car to navigate highway directions on its own was 2 months out. Made it all seem very credible.

But hey. Maybe this time it will be different. Any day now. Don’t stop believin.

 

[diplomat33]

Yep, so was AP2 in October 2016.

I feel for you. You’re just like I was in October 2016. Tesla just showed an amazing video to the world that demonstrated “real” full self driving in beta, on a new computer that was fast enough to handle it. The AP feature to allow the car to navigate highway directions on its own was 2 months out. Made it all seem very credible.

But hey. Maybe this time it will be different. Any day now. Don’t stop believin.

Statistically, the "believers" in Tesla's FSD will eventually be right at some point. Think of this way: Tesla will inevitably achieve FSD at some point and each year they get closer and closer. Let's say that Tesla achieves FSD in 2025. The optimists think that it will happen sooner, say 2019. Of course, they are wrong. The optimists persists that it will happen in 2020. They are wrong. They persist that it will happen in 2021. They are wrong again. But then in 2025, the optimists are convinced that this is the year. They point to X, Y and Z as signs that Tesla really will do it this time. The naysayers go "we've been disappointed for 6 years now. Come on. This is just another year that it won't happen". But in 2025, Tesla does it!

And no, I won't stop believin' because eventually I will be right!

 

[D.E.]

Tesla should have a program to transfer FSD to a new car so those that bought in early don't lose their FSD payment simply because Tesla didn't deliver as soon as they said they would. It would go a long way toward preserving goodwill among those that are the leading edge of Tesla fans. On the other hand, it's a real downer to see your thousands wasted and to be asked to trust them to deliver all over again. This would cost Tesla nothing, they've already been paid.

 

[Daniellane]

Tesla should have a program to transfer FSD to a new car so those that bought in early don't lose their FSD payment simply because Tesla didn't deliver as soon as they said they would. It would go a long way toward preserving goodwill among those that are the leading edge of Tesla fans. On the other hand, it's a real downer to see your thousands wasted and to be asked to trust them to deliver all over again. This would cost Tesla nothing, they've already been paid.

I have thought about this as well and really like the idea.
This of course assumes no value is added to trade-ins with FSD or AP for that matter, which may be the case. So if it were possible to transfer it from your trade-in to your next car, it might be close to a wash, depending on whether it was purchased pre or post delivery.

 

[D.E.]

I have thought about this as well and really like the idea.
This of course assumes no value is added to trade-ins with FSD or AP for that matter, which may be the case. So if it were possible to transfer it from your trade-in to your next car, it might be close to a wash, depending on whether it was purchased pre or post delivery.

It is a configuration change that is done remotely. It can be removed from the old car and enabled on the new one. I would think there would need to be some rules, that it needs to be removed while the current owner has the car. Then the display should note the absence of FSD until the car is registered by Tesla to the new owner. That way the used car purchaser would not assume he was getting FSD. If the car is sold with FSD enabled, it'll have to stay with the car.

 

[Daniellane]

It is a configuration change that is done remotely. It can be removed from the old car and enabled on the new one. I would think there would need to be some rules, that it needs to be removed while the current owner has the car. Then the display should note the absence of FSD until the car is registered by Tesla to the new owner. That way the used car purchaser would not assume he was getting FSD. If the car is sold with FSD enabled, it'll have to stay with the car.

I agree it should be simple process on the backend, however, it depends how much the trade-in value is reduced by removing the FSD option. This is what I was referring to as close to a wash.

 

[Theflash95]

And no, I won't stop believin' because eventually I will be right!

Sure, eventually you will... but what could you have done with that $4k/$5k in the meantime? I’d rather not loan my money for R&D on a tech that isn’t going to be anywhere near ready for several years.

Say FSD is a reality in 2025... my Model S will be 8 years old... I’ll probably be thinking about replacing it within a year or two by then rather than investing another $5k or $6k into it. Surely Tesla will have refreshed the S by then and may even have another model I might be interested in. Who knows, maybe they’ll be another car company that’s got an EV that I’ll want even more than what Tesla is offering by then.

 

[Naekuh]

i have FSD... however i dont think i will ever see it before i either trade in my car, or get a new one, or it gets totaled...
(knock on wood the last doesnt happen).

I assumed i would see it, but lately seeing how slow things are progressing at Tesla, also the fact Elon is under a law suit that might ban him from ever running a publicly held company, and how tesla's all seem to love to rear end fire trucks, i really don't see me ever being able to use FSD.

At this point i would even consider it a wash if FSD meant no nag screen in EAP.
Then i probably wouldn't regret getting FSD.
But again.. tesla's seem to love rear ending fire trucks, so ummm.... 3000 dollars which could of gone into something else like a rufus upgrade, or better rims if you dont have the 21 inch already, seems like a overall better investment.

 

[Magellan55]

To the OP, probably not worth pre-paying now that you'd have to pay the 33% markup. My guess is the chance of it going up and them not grandfathering you in is low, though they may also ask you to buy the new CPU or whatever other hardware is needed. Heck there's no guarantee you'd get the HW free even if you pre-paid FSD.

I bought FSD at time of purchase, but it was more for curiosity to try it out as it got better over the years. I rarely even use EAP. But I keep my cars 10+ years, so I figure my habits may change and the systems may improve enough I'll find it useful later. Plus I think EAP / FSD is where all the new features will come from OTA, so it gives me more to look forward to with each new release.

 

[D.E.]

To the OP, probably not worth pre-paying now that you'd have to pay the 33% markup. My guess is the chance of it going up and them not grandfathering you in is low, though they may also ask you to buy the new CPU or whatever other hardware is needed. Heck there's no guarantee you'd get the HW free even if you pre-paid FSD.

They promised us the cars were fully hardware capable of FSD at the time we purchased them.

With the promise that the cars already had all the necessary hardware, I think it is unlikely they'll charge us for the computer upgrade. To do so would be to admit the cars we bought were not FSD capable.

 

[emmz0r]

I would buy FSD partly because some of the features they get and partly because of increased resale value and future proofing. Remember - ONLY FSD owners will get the new hardware upgrade.