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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I don’t see it. Even from a TA perspective we are set up for a pretty significant drop. 261 and then 240. If we are somehow green I would be looking to sell some ITM calls for 1-2 weeks out. IMO. Not investment advice. Also will be closing out my bps at a loss. I think we see 240 at some point this week.
The only thing that could save us this week is a macro event or a fed put.
bballshinobi
Member
This is what I believe too. AAPL and TSLA were 2 mega caps that didn’t suffer too much during this decline, but both are showing weakness now. I think there was a lot of optimism because of the potential Q3 beat and also AI Day. Both, however, are lackluster in terms of surprising to the upside. The short term momentum looks to be down. Mega caps are always the last to decline and I think it’s our turn now. We are more likely to see $200 than $300 in my humble opinion.
Hope so, although the ER date of 10/19 is very similar to dates in earlier quarters.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
dropped 7.5% so far. It's early though!
Looks like right now trying to roll my $297.50 10/7 puts out past ER (10/21) would cost me 50 cents-1 buck for either $296.33 or $295 strikes, or $1.45 credit if I'm willing to go up to $298.33... rolling to 10/28 would get me about even roll at $295 strike... don't love any of those
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
Good day to sell Novermber 18 monthly 20% out at around a 200 strike? Premiums around $8.50 right now.
Do we really think macro is going to suppress the stock lower than that, even post earnings? Would I mind owning 10 contracts of the stock at ~200? I don't think so.
Any thoughts?
Do we really think macro is going to suppress the stock lower than that, even post earnings? Would I mind owning 10 contracts of the stock at ~200? I don't think so.
Any thoughts?
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
wow, ya called that one. OUCH!
corduroy
Active Member
Daytraded some -220Ps, just got out at 30% profit. If we head back down, I'll do it again.
I'm glad we have the macro tailwinds today or this would have been really ugly.
I'm glad we have the macro tailwinds today or this would have been really ugly.
I -am- surprised at how easily the explanations get manipulated to tell a really bad story. The article that came up in my news feed on Fidelity quotes JP Morgan Chase.
The lines that I remember (since I'm not easily finding a link):
- logistics hurdles (because they've already hired all of the available transport - they are somewhat being forced into this unwinding)
- possible demand destruction (because they built them, and they (consumers) didn't come)
In fairness if Tesla really did start having significant problems finding buyers (for Tesla) then I would expect an early manifestation to be an increase in the difference between production and delivery. The counter to this - Tesla will be easily able to turn production down to match actual demand more easily than anybody else.
Thus my take - the short term news, without any special help, is that this is a miss (because 343k < 359k). For long term investors this is a "situation normal, growth continues unabated" result. Every one of those 20something produced and undelivered cars will be delivered this week and maybe next (20k cars for a 500k quarter result is 1/2 week of deliveries), and that doesn't matter to a long term investor.
The only thing to see here for a long term investor is a buying opportunity. And I think its shaping up to be a doozy - easy short term bad news plus bad macro - my pessimistic self is suddenly seeing 220 (660 pre split) and 200 as possibilities. That isn't advice - my crystal ball has failed me pretty well this quarter
I semi-expect the downers to step in and help support the share price today. Keep the shares from dropping 10%. That'll help with another 7% down day tomorrow.
That is more not-advice.
I closed out of my purchased call positions. They all went bust as I expected more than not when I opened them. With no cc open, only csp, this is an all red day.
The question of the morning that I'll be sitting with for awhile - if the shares are down from here, then this is a relative high spot in the share price, and now is a good time to open cc.
If the shares will be down a lot from here (say 245 down to 220) then I might be better off eating the $30 loss per csp share and selling new csp. With time value already nearing $0 for this week expiration 275 csp, I anticipate rolling today. The question will be the new expiration and strike - I lean towards a max strike improvement and the week after earnings report, maybe the 2nd week after earnings.
Closest-to-advice
For these DITM puts I have, and I suspect that many of us suddenly have, focus on the time value in the position rather than the DTE. When that time value is really close to zero is when you're losing control for keeping the position open.
A mistake I made the last time I had csp go DITM and stay there for 5ish months of rolling - I was rolling week to week, a week ahead of time. So rolling from around 7 DTE out to 14 - stuff like that. I should have been rolling month to month with at least 5-10 DTE when the time value was nearly zero. Its really the time value that control whether there is a good financial angle to an early exercise and the more time value you actually have then the less likely the early exercise (as that time value becomes the exerciser's gift to you).
Do you really think we go down another 7% tomorrow? The SP is already ridiculously low.I -am- surprised at how easily the explanations get manipulated to tell a really bad story. The article that came up in my news feed on Fidelity quotes JP Morgan Chase.
The lines that I remember (since I'm not easily finding a link):
- logistics hurdles (because they've already hired all of the available transport - they are somewhat being forced into this unwinding)
- possible demand destruction (because they built them, and they (consumers) didn't come)
In fairness if Tesla really did start having significant problems finding buyers (for Tesla) then I would expect an early manifestation to be an increase in the difference between production and delivery. The counter to this - Tesla will be easily able to turn production down to match actual demand more easily than anybody else.
Thus my take - the short term news, without any special help, is that this is a miss (because 343k < 359k). For long term investors this is a "situation normal, growth continues unabated" result. Every one of those 20something produced and undelivered cars will be delivered this week and maybe next (20k cars for a 500k quarter result is 1/2 week of deliveries), and that doesn't matter to a long term investor.
The only thing to see here for a long term investor is a buying opportunity. And I think its shaping up to be a doozy - easy short term bad news plus bad macro - my pessimistic self is suddenly seeing 220 (660 pre split) and 200 as possibilities. That isn't advice - my crystal ball has failed me pretty well this quarter
I semi-expect the downers to step in and help support the share price today. Keep the shares from dropping 10%. That'll help with another 7% down day tomorrow.
That is more not-advice.
I closed out of my purchased call positions. They all went bust as I expected more than not when I opened them. With no cc open, only csp, this is an all red day.
The question of the morning that I'll be sitting with for awhile - if the shares are down from here, then this is a relative high spot in the share price, and now is a good time to open cc.
If the shares will be down a lot from here (say 245 down to 220) then I might be better off eating the $30 loss per csp share and selling new csp. With time value already nearing $0 for this week expiration 275 csp, I anticipate rolling today. The question will be the new expiration and strike - I lean towards a max strike improvement and the week after earnings report, maybe the 2nd week after earnings.
Closest-to-advice
For these DITM puts I have, and I suspect that many of us suddenly have, focus on the time value in the position rather than the DTE. When that time value is really close to zero is when you're losing control for keeping the position open.
A mistake I made the last time I had csp go DITM and stay there for 5ish months of rolling - I was rolling week to week, a week ahead of time. So rolling from around 7 DTE out to 14 - stuff like that. I should have been rolling month to month with at least 5-10 DTE when the time value was nearly zero. Its really the time value that control whether there is a good financial angle to an early exercise and the more time value you actually have then the less likely the early exercise (as that time value becomes the exerciser's gift to you).
Going against the ethos of this thread and bought a few 10/14 +300c! The rest of macros is rising on the new month, so why not?!
SebastienBonny
Member
bballshinobi
Member
It’s ridiculously low to us but not so to institutional investors or the average joes
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
I kind of went with your thinking, but went further out 11/18 -196p. If it actually gets that low I'll buy the shares I think.
Otherwise, let it rise!
Rolled -p275 to 5x -p245/210 for Friday and rolled -p300 to 4x 10/21 -p250/-180. Still holding a few more -p300 for this week hoping for a better roll.
Don't like being back in ATM spreads but 1) starting to think about risk of early exercise on the 300s, and 2) margin cushion was running low and interfering with my plan to start converting more shares to 1/25 300c.
Don't like being back in ATM spreads but 1) starting to think about risk of early exercise on the 300s, and 2) margin cushion was running low and interfering with my plan to start converting more shares to 1/25 300c.
no one knows anything that's my take lol. Chicken Genius is saying $120-140 still in play. Why even hold if that is the case?
He needs to clearly spend some time with the valueanalyst lol. Unbelievable that the guy still keeps pushing the Tesla will 3X in 2022 tag line.
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