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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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What if I just bought 20 contracts every Monday morning at the same time? My job doesn't really allow me to follow the market that closely. How would I decide what strike price to buy at? If the stock has a major breakout wouldn't I just get left behind in the dust? What do you mean by bring back to equivalent $185 - $190 stock price?
Ok, lots to unpack here. First, options trading is a bit like gardening. To get the best results, you need to check in and adjust from time to time. Yes, you can ignore things for hours/days, but when the conditions turn bad (freezing rain/snow, scorching solar), you need to take action to protect what you are trying to grow. If you cannot follow the stock, then a hands off process is a bit different, but still possible. Many here have spent countless hundreds of hours learning, and still call themselves “newbies.”

So, if I understand your situation correctly, you just sold 2000 shares at $104 and now you have $208,000 cash in your brokerage account. Going forward, you can do many things. If you decide to SELL cash-secured puts (CSP), this means that you are selling the right for someone else to PUT you the shares at a specific strike price. For this right, you are given a premium (which the buyer pays to you). In addition, your brokerage keeps enough cash “secured” or locked away (in case you’re forced to buy the shares) until the contract closes (either you have been PUT the shares at the strike price or the contract expires worthless). This is options 101 and if you don’t understand, then you need to go back to Wikipedia, options alpha, 1st post etc. This is all a non-margin account. If you’re trading options on margin and you don’t understand, well, just stop and get out now before you do something stupid. Otherwise, proceed with caution.

So, with that $208K, you can SELL 20x $104 strike puts (CSPs) for about $1.65/share this week for $3360 premium ($1.65 x 2000). If the SP ends the week above $104, then you keep the $3360 and the $208k is “released” and available to sell again next week. If SP is below $104, no matter how low, well the shares are put to you (usually Saturday or Sunday) at $104, plus you still keep the $3360. That’s the simple part. Now, you can always buyback the contract for a gain or loss before Friday if you want. Also, you can raise the strike price closer to “at the money” ATM and get more premium, but at more risk of assignment (plus you still need enough cash to secure the puts). To sell 20x CSPs at $115, you need $230k.

If you keep this up every week, “winning” ( the SP always finishes above the strike price), then you continue to collect that premium. Adding that up each week, and you might add 52x$1.65=$85/share or x 20 contracts x 100 shares/contract = $170k, added to you initial $208k = $378k. Everything is still cash, no shares, if the puts always expire worthless ( SP above strike price). So, $378/2000sh = $189/sh, or it’s like making money if the SP is BELOW $189 on 12/31/23, or losing money if SP is above $189.

Unfortunately, we can’t know whether the SP will be $120, $150, $180, $300, or $500 on 12/31/23, so it’s uncertain what method will work better than holding stock: buying options, selling options, or not even playing the game. In 2022, we would have all been better just selling on Jan 3rd, putting the cash in the bank, and vacationing in Aruba. Personally, I spent a lot of time an energy to ONLY lose 50% of my account dollar value, instead of the 75% loss in TSLA stock price. However, I hope 2023 is better because with my options premiums I’ve added 1000 shares, unfortunately many of them were purchased in the $200s and $300s, yet are only worth $114 today.

So, is this the method for you? I don’t know, but it’s working for me, but it’s a bit more work than just putting the money in an account and walking away. The premium divided by the strike is the weekly return: $1.65/$104 = 0.0158 = 1.6%. That’s not bad in my book. Even 1% per week compounded is more than 50%/year, better than any return I’ve ever received, even in a stock market mutual fund.

Can you do this with minimum time? Yes, you can sell CSPs once a week and just let them go. For the highest returns, you try to sell CSPs at the bottom of a SP drop, often around 07:00-07:45 AM Pacific time. Any day works, but Thursdays seem to be pretty good on average. For example, last Thursday the low was $107 at 07:45, and selling $104 strike CSPs for 1/13 would have been a great premium. Yesterday, Friday at 06:38 would have been even better, but then how was anyone to know?
 
Ok, lots to unpack here. First, options trading is a bit like gardening. To get the best results, you need to check in and adjust from time to time. Yes, you can ignore things for hours/days, but when the conditions turn bad (freezing rain/snow, scorching solar), you need to take action to protect what you are trying to grow. If you cannot follow the stock, then a hands off process is a bit different, but still possible. Many here have spent countless hundreds of hours learning, and still call themselves “newbies.”

So, if I understand your situation correctly, you just sold 2000 shares at $104 and now you have $208,000 cash in your brokerage account. Going forward, you can do many things. If you decide to SELL cash-secured puts (CSP), this means that you are selling the right for someone else to PUT you the shares at a specific strike price. For this right, you are given a premium (which the buyer pays to you). In addition, your brokerage keeps enough cash “secured” or locked away (in case you’re forced to buy the shares) until the contract closes (either you have been PUT the shares at the strike price or the contract expires worthless). This is options 101 and if you don’t understand, then you need to go back to Wikipedia, options alpha, 1st post etc. This is all a non-margin account. If you’re trading options on margin and you don’t understand, well, just stop and get out now before you do something stupid. Otherwise, proceed with caution.

So, with that $208K, you can SELL 20x $104 strike puts (CSPs) for about $1.65/share this week for $3360 premium ($1.65 x 2000). If the SP ends the week above $104, then you keep the $3360 and the $208k is “released” and available to sell again next week. If SP is below $104, no matter how low, well the shares are put to you (usually Saturday or Sunday) at $104, plus you still keep the $3360. That’s the simple part. Now, you can always buyback the contract for a gain or loss before Friday if you want. Also, you can raise the strike price closer to “at the money” ATM and get more premium, but at more risk of assignment (plus you still need enough cash to secure the puts). To sell 20x CSPs at $115, you need $230k.

If you keep this up every week, “winning” ( the SP always finishes above the strike price), then you continue to collect that premium. Adding that up each week, and you might add 52x$1.65=$85/share or x 20 contracts x 100 shares/contract = $170k, added to you initial $208k = $378k. Everything is still cash, no shares, if the puts always expire worthless ( SP above strike price). So, $378/2000sh = $189/sh, or it’s like making money if the SP is BELOW $189 on 12/31/23, or losing money if SP is above $189.

Unfortunately, we can’t know whether the SP will be $120, $150, $180, $300, or $500 on 12/31/23, so it’s uncertain what method will work better than holding stock: buying options, selling options, or not even playing the game. In 2022, we would have all been better just selling on Jan 3rd, putting the cash in the bank, and vacationing in Aruba. Personally, I spent a lot of time an energy to ONLY lose 50% of my account dollar value, instead of the 75% loss in TSLA stock price. However, I hope 2023 is better because with my options premiums I’ve added 1000 shares, unfortunately many of them were purchased in the $200s and $300s, yet are only worth $114 today.

So, is this the method for you? I don’t know, but it’s working for me, but it’s a bit more work than just putting the money in an account and walking away. The premium divided by the strike is the weekly return: $1.65/$104 = 0.0158 = 1.6%. That’s not bad in my book. Even 1% per week compounded is more than 50%/year, better than any return I’ve ever received, even in a stock market mutual fund.

Can you do this with minimum time? Yes, you can sell CSPs once a week and just let them go. For the highest returns, you try to sell CSPs at the bottom of a SP drop, often around 07:00-07:45 AM Pacific time. Any day works, but Thursdays seem to be pretty good on average. For example, last Thursday the low was $107 at 07:45, and selling $104 strike CSPs for 1/13 would have been a great premium. Yesterday, Friday at 06:38 would have been even better, but then how was anyone to know?
Thank you for all of the information and your time it took to compose. Hypothetically if the stock price gets back to $200 in a month or two, wouldn't I be much further ahead to just purchase what shares I could at a loss Monday morning, or even further ahead if I bought LEAPs? Don't leaps appreciate (or depreciate) two or three times faster than holding shares?
 
Thank you for all of the information and your time it took to compose. Hypothetically if the stock price gets back to $200 in a month or two, wouldn't I be much further ahead to just purchase what shares I could at a loss Monday morning, or even further ahead if I bought LEAPs? Don't leaps appreciate (or depreciate) two or three times faster than holding shares?
Not trying to answer your question directly unfortunately - a working assumption of the thread is that you've read the opening post and completed the Options Alpha video series / introduction to options. It's a 3 part series, takes around 20-30 hours - I roughly think of it as "intro", "getting into a trade", and "getting out of a trade".

Or that you have equivalent knowledge from some other source.


The other, closest thing to advice, is that when you do start trading, keep the trades small. At least for me, it turns out I put just as much energy into small positions as I do large. That's really not efficient, yet its what I do. As a result I can learn (almost) all the same lessons from small positions as large. (You miss out on risk management, and the hazards of margin as a mechanism for blowing up your account).


For leaps appreciation, you can measure that using the delta on the option. A contract with a delta of .75 is equivalent to 75 shares of stock in its rate of change as the share price changes. Of course the delta itself is also changing as the share price changes (measured by gamma), but for reasonably close ranges around a share price you can approximate delta as unchanging.

Anyway these are some of the topics covered in that intro material.
 
Thank you for all of the information and your time it took to compose. Hypothetically if the stock price gets back to $200 in a month or two, wouldn't I be much further ahead to just purchase what shares I could at a loss Monday morning, or even further ahead if I bought LEAPs? Don't leaps appreciate (or depreciate) two or three times faster than holding shares?
Absolutely yes. But, unfortunately, nobody knows for certain what the SP will be in 1mo, 2mo, 10 mo, etc. I tried buying LEAP calls several times in the past two years including ones deep ITM at the time. Almost every time I eventually sold them at a loss because the SP kept dropping or didn’t rise fast enough to keep up with theta decay. My best timing was buying (Jan23 1100s at $90 IIRC) the day after the S&P500 addition announcement and selling before the actual addition.
 
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Just keep in mind what would happen if this wasn’t the bottom and we do drop further: the 1000 shares you buy back will lose money and the LEAPS will lose even faster, so it will feel even worse than Friday morning pre-market.

I started converting to LEAPS around 200 and it made this drop even uglier. Down here is definitely better timing but we can always go lower, you can never know for sure.

So I wouldn’t be quite as aggressive buying LEAPS with half your free cash. A 1/25 100c is about $5000, and even buying just 10 contracts replaces 1000 shares - i.e., no matter how high the share price goes in that time frame, you could always get your 1000 shares back by exercising and paying $10k per contract.

So maybe in your position I would buy half the shares back, buy 10x 1/25 100c, and sell 5x weekly 100p.

-You have similar exposure if we go up.

-If we stay flat, you’re making a little each week from the put premium that you can use to buy shares.

-If we go down, you’ll either buy back 500 shares a little cheaper or you could choose to roll the puts down.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like a 1/25 100c underperforms stock (looses money compared to owning stock) until the SP hits 200.
 
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Options Alpha video series / introduction to options. It's a 3 part series, takes around 20-30 hours
Okay so there's no way to just keep it fairly simple. Buy the best 2025 LEAP and keep rolling it if I have to. Seems like sitting here selling puts while the stock price heads back up would be way more riskier and painful to watch. What am I missing? Both strategies rely on similar luck, or don't they? It does feel like we hit the bottom, but of course there's no guarantees. What's the best LEAP if the stock ends the year at 200 or better?
 
Okay so there's no way to just keep it fairly simple. Buy the best 2025 LEAP and keep rolling it if I have to. Seems like sitting here selling puts while the stock price heads back up would be way more riskier and painful to watch. What am I missing? Both strategies rely on similar luck, or don't they? It does feel like we hit the bottom, but of course there's no guarantees. What's the best LEAP if the stock ends the year at 200 or better?
Options are hard. People on this forum with lots of experience, many of them gone now, have lost 80-100% in the last year.

Just buy the shares back Monday for the small loss (lesson learned) and don't look at your account for the next two years. Done.

(Usually best to buy 30-60 minutes after the open during the morning dip - if we get one. If the rest of the market is red Monday, then wait longer as TSLA usually down 4X the rest of the market).
 
Okay so there's no way to just keep it fairly simple. Buy the best 2025 LEAP and keep rolling it if I have to. Seems like sitting here selling puts while the stock price heads back up would be way more riskier and painful to watch. What am I missing? Both strategies rely on similar luck, or don't they? It does feel like we hit the bottom, but of course there's no guarantees. What's the best LEAP if the stock ends the year at 200 or better?
Well technically the best LEAP(because you pay the lowest time premium for the deepest calls) is the 5$ Jan 25 option but makes a lot more sense to buy stock instead of LEAPS.


Alternatively you can pick up 40$ LEAPS for 82$ based on Friday’s closing price. With the SP at 113 you are paying about 9$ in time premium. I’m good with this risk/reward. Hence I bought some on Friday :)

OTM calls: I’m just not feeling frisky about OTM calls yet but depending on what I hear/see from ER i might be interested in those.
 
Okay so there's no way to just keep it fairly simple. Buy the best 2025 LEAP and keep rolling it if I have to. Seems like sitting here selling puts while the stock price heads back up would be way more riskier and painful to watch. What am I missing? Both strategies rely on similar luck, or don't they? It does feel like we hit the bottom, but of course there's no guarantees. What's the best LEAP if the stock ends the year at 200 or better?

You can explore those kind of hypotheticals at:


Select the option you want and the price range.

For example, 1/24/2024 with TSLA =$200

Strike. Cost profit
$50. $66. 118 %
$100 c $38. 159 %
$125 c. $27. 172 %
$150. $20. 156 %
$175. $13. 80 %

For comparison, TSLA stock:
Cost:$113, profit 77%
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like a 1/25 100c underperforms stock (looses money compared to owning stock) until the SP hits 200.

You are probably right if replacing 100 shares with only a single LEAP. And I agree with your other post that for someone new to options, the best choice is to just buy the shares back at a loss and not get involved in options in the first place.

But…this is the options thread, and for those inclined to gamble on LEAPS, now is definitely a better time to do so than 3 months ago.
 
Options are hard. People on this forum with lots of experience, many of them gone now, have lost 80-100% in the last year.

Just buy the shares back Monday for the small loss (lesson learned) and don't look at your account for the next two years. Done.

(Usually best to buy 30-60 minutes after the open during the morning dip - if we get one. If the rest of the market is red Monday, then wait longer as TSLA usually down 4X the rest of the market).

I was just thinking about how options elicit absolutely the worst fallacies in me.

I was picking up a few shares a couple of weeks ago, and had a few hundred dollars left after the transfer, so I bought a Feb call to try and catch the bottom/play earnings. Now, presumably between theta decay and a lower IV, it's lost about 60% of it's value.

I haven't closed it out for a 60% loss yet, because part of me thinks we could still nail earnings and I might make less of a loss. But if I really believed that, why wouldn't I buy more contracts? It's just pure sunk-cost fallacy, but even acknowledging that, I can't bring myself to recognize the 60% loss, and I'll probably be slapped with a 100% loss instead.
 
I was just thinking about how options elicit absolutely the worst fallacies in me.

I was picking up a few shares a couple of weeks ago, and had a few hundred dollars left after the transfer, so I bought a Feb call to try and catch the bottom/play earnings. Now, presumably between theta decay and a lower IV, it's lost about 60% of it's value.

I haven't closed it out for a 60% loss yet, because part of me thinks we could still nail earnings and I might make less of a loss. But if I really believed that, why wouldn't I buy more contracts? It's just pure sunk-cost fallacy, but even acknowledging that, I can't bring myself to recognize the 60% loss, and I'll probably be slapped with a 100% loss instead.

I feel I a gambling with my 100x Jan2025 110 LEAPS will all the online FUD that says the stock could be lower. Had I sold all my shares 6 months ago and converted to LEAPS I’d feel unwell know. Compared to feeling like a degenerate.
 
Options are hard. People on this forum with lots of experience, many of them gone now, have lost 80-100% in the last year.

Just buy the shares back Monday for the small loss (lesson learned) and don't look at your account for the next two years. Done.

(Usually best to buy 30-60 minutes after the open during the morning dip - if we get one. If the rest of the market is red Monday, then wait longer as TSLA usually down 4X the rest of the market).
I was starting to have similar thoughts. The market has been freaking crazy and we don't know what the fed is ultimately going to do. There's just so much uncertainty. It's probably going to go ripping back up, but who the hell knows. A couple thoughts I had that I wanted to run by you guys:

So if I buy the shares back tomorrow at a loss. I can always sell them again later when things aren't so crazy, and I've had a chance to get better educated. Say I lost 150 shares or more from panic selling last Friday. If I want to mess with options trading say in two years from now, I'm still in the same position as I am now. I'm still trying to get my 150+ shares back into my Roth. It doesn't matter if the stock price is at 113 or 500, I still have similar risks. Is that right or am I missing something?

The other thought is if I lose my ass at these low prices and I decide never to touch options again I'll be down huge when it gets back to 400. If I want to sell and play with $200,000 later on when it's at new ATHs it will be a lot less significant amount of my net worth that I'm risking.
 
I've decided to throw more money into my ITM 2024 BPSs, and roll them down tomorrow from -250/+226.67 to 200/175 in the hope of avoiding more assignments. Maybe the SP can get above 200 in the next year....
These rumours about inventory still going up in the US + price cuts in china only changing delivery times by a week are pretty worrying. God I hate the position we are in now.
 

What about doing this to accumulate more shares?
 
These rumours about inventory still going up in the US + price cuts in china only changing delivery times by a week are pretty worrying. God I hate the position we are in now.

At least Tesla can reverse that inventory with a price drop of couple %. If they had profit margins in the single digit that would be worrying. But when you have more than 5 times the margins of the rest of the industry there is some room to play before it’s gets really worrisome.
 
These rumours about inventory still going up in the US + price cuts in china only changing delivery times by a week are pretty worrying. God I hate the position we are in now.

Tesla got shafted by the EV tax credit on the Model Y 5 seater. Are those delivery estimates even accurate? I would assume that the Tesla Model 3 SR demand would exploded now that the car is essentially under $40k in the USA with the new tax credit but deliveries still say January to February. Tesla has not even updated the Model 3 order page to included the Model 3 LR. Tesla China Model Y deliveries are at 2-5 weeks.

I sold 135cc on Friday and I am planning to sell more. We are up nicely premarket.