That is a very optimistic estimate for EPS. If Q1 EPS was $0.85, Q2 and Q3 are going to be even lower than that. Q4 may be better with Cybertruck coming into the mix. EPS this year is going to be $3-$4. At 30-40 PE, TSLA may fall back to $100.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
That is a very optimistic estimate for EPS. If Q1 EPS was $0.85, Q2 and Q3 are going to be even lower than that. Q4 may be better with Cybertruck coming into the mix. EPS this year is going to be $3-$4. At 30-40 PE, TSLA may fall back to $100.
I also expect FOMC to raise 0.25%, but really don't know how it will affect the markets. Not sure the recent bull-trend is helping us with the FED either
I'm still holding the 120x -c150's, there was an opportunity to roll today when the SP dipped to 158, but I'm road tripping this week to Denmark and was driving all day, so, meh!
(Anecdotal: first road trip in the MX Plaid, never seen charging speeds like this and Plaid on the autobahn is just crazy fast, 270kmph comes very quickly indeed
A good mix of Teslas in Germany, but Denmark is infested with them, mostly M3's in vanilla white, they're everywhere. Free parking for EV's in Copenhagen)
I'm still holding the 120x -c150's, there was an opportunity to roll today when the SP dipped to 158, but I'm road tripping this week to Denmark and was driving all day, so, meh!
(Anecdotal: first road trip in the MX Plaid, never seen charging speeds like this and Plaid on the autobahn is just crazy fast, 270kmph comes very quickly indeed
A good mix of Teslas in Germany, but Denmark is infested with them, mostly M3's in vanilla white, they're everywhere. Free parking for EV's in Copenhagen)
Depends whether they can reduce cogs, and Zach did say that there were a number of one-time items hitting Q1 margins
But overall I agree, hard to see Q2 margins getting close to the 20% we were expecting, but maybe greater P&D volumes will keep the EPS up a bit
$100 would not be right, this correction to the 160's surely bakes-in the lower EPS forecasts for this year, the previous dump to 100 was a raid by the WS pirates
But yes, 146 still a possibility, seems that candle-charts abhor a vacuum...
It is crazy that Apple and Nvidia are essentially at ATH. I don't think the Cybertruck will move the needle either and the ramp will be painful. Model 3/Y can help. If Tesla could get GM to 20% we would be golden. Maybe Q2 would surprise us with some FSD recognition... there goes my hopium again.
Near session close I opened a bull call spread +170/-180 instead of a bear call spread -170/+180, tried to immediately buy back but didn't enter quick enough... moved .05 in two minutes. Always check and double check the preview! That buyback order cancelled at market close. I'm speculating SP will stick around 158-163. My thoughts are to watch pre-market and set an order to harvest what I can from the wrong trade or capture some upside if we get a slight pop. Sound like the right approach?
Half of the Q1 miss was one time things, FSD adjustment and legacy S/X warranty. (And half wasn’t, and that half might get worse or better)
EVNow
Well-Known Member
May be a question for the finance thread … but what exactly was the FSD adjustment? I’ve not yet read the 10-Q.
I don't think they gave specifics, but my guess is it is because the Tesla Vision 2.0 software to replace the ultrasonic sensors is much later than they expected. So there are EAP/FSD features that have not yet been delivered to new vehicles. (They have delivered Park Assist, but not Summon, Smart Summon, or Auto Park.)
Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision | Tesla Support
Safety is at the core of our design and engineering decisions. In 2021, we began our transition to Tesla Vision by removing radar from Model 3 and Model Y, followed by Model S and Model X in 2022. Today, in most regions around the globe, these vehicles now rely on Tesla Vision, our camera-based...
The deferral will continue growing until they are able to deliver all of the features.
At the same time they have been unable to deliver FSD Beta to new customers because of the NHTSA recall. (While they have delivered a FSD Beta that resolves the recall, it is on an older version of the firmware that isn't compatible with all of the newer vehicles that don't have ultrasonic sensors.)
My habit / personal rule, when I discover these sort of faux pas (mis-entered orders), is that I just close them ASAP. They might work out, they might go against, but I didn't analyze the position I entered is my thinking. In fact I analyzed the opposite of the position I entered (in this circumstance) and the last thing I'd want to do is take a position that is opposite of the one that I wanted to be in.
Even if the trade is profitable by the time I figure it out and close.
Mostly my rule covers when I open the trade that I want, but in the wrong account, so now I have a more aggressive margin exposure than I want.
Please, let’s keep this thread on the topic of options trading and leave the major macro discussions to the main round table thread. Yes, there is a big FMOC meeting on Wednesday, but let’s debate how options are to be traded, not the in-out details of policy. IIRC, several on this thread have posted their successful timing trades for the 30 min before/after announcement and chairman’s speech. Must review previous poster’s trades. As for my situation, didn’t do much today except initiated a small IC position (140/150 BPS at the MMD and 170/180 BCS during the bounce). I just couldn’t resist because the SP action was so obviously manipulated compared to the macros. Not huge premiums, but enough to pay for a month’s groceries if they all expire worthless. Will probably close before FMOC. Still holding 5/12 -c165s, -c162.50s and tight ICs (-p160s/-c165s, -p150s/-c170s), plus some longer term Jan 2025s (-c210s, -c200s, -p200s) as hedges. All pretty close to ATM, even though I’m still concerned about a push to close that late January gap at $146. @Max Plaid may be correct on those ITM CCs, but that’s just too much risk for me at this point. Still holding significant cash (for me), for future trades/reaction/buybacks, etc. If the SP hits $146 gap, I will buyback most of the Jan25 CCs, and scramble to roll the BPS side of the ICs.
Here’s my minimal attempt to understand TA. Damn, that $146 gap lines up with a major 0.618 Fibonacci level. Do I understand or know what will happen? Nope, but still watching, waiting, and wary.
Here’s my minimal attempt to understand TA. Damn, that $146 gap lines up with a major 0.618 Fibonacci level. Do I understand or know what will happen? Nope, but still watching, waiting, and wary.
SebastienBonny
Member
Well, I can’t time TSLA but sure looks like I timed the bottom for Tesla lol. For now.
Purchased the model3 LFP as our second car over the weekend and price went up by 250$…Huge savings lol.
Purchased the model3 LFP as our second car over the weekend and price went up by 250$…Huge savings lol.
Puny cc rolls yesterday:
- 5May$180 —> 19May$180 (90% profit, $1.09 credit)
- 21Jul$200 —> 16Jun$180 ($0.07 credit
)
First time I made a few bucks by mistake
... closed out with credit. Thanks for the non-advice.
jeewee3000
Active Member
May I ask why you're not letting this one expire? Then you could sell again on the first bump next week.
If I am wrong and 152.3 wasn't the bottom, then this is be the beginning of the last leg down to 146. I already closed most of my short puts. Short calls still remain @ 180 for 5/12. If I'm right and 152.3 was the bottom, then 155-157 should be your last chance to close out ITM short calls.
dc_h
Active Member
I sold a couple of 167.50, 5 170 and 10 175 calls for Friday. I think it is not unlikely we gap down to 144 and complete the Fibonacci move. If we move above my calls, I'm ok rolling or cashing and selling puts.
So it might go up or perhaps it goes down?
Right now I’m probably going to roll the -c150’s to the same strike, there’s $1 on offer. Recession signals getting stronger, TSLA string today, but is that sustainable?
It will go down from here. Question is how low.So it might go up or perhaps it goes down?
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