Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[generalenthu]

Thanks for sharing this! When you have a moment, would you mind providing some context around why this data is important or how we can use it to make better trading decisions?

I don't want to answer this now. While I have some thoughts, I'll wait to see this data in real time. I also want to see if people find it interesting/ useful.

This is the first time I am looking at it too. So letting it simmer for a bit.

 

[Yoona]

Alright, now that the markets are open, here is the fun thing I was working on yesterday.

This page linked below is updated every minute during the trading day and gives the largest option trades for that minute. History is shown from the beginning of the day.

It's somewhat similar to what other paid services like chameleon offer, but I am deriving this from my broker feed directly.

This is still beta and hopefully provides some useful info or sparks some ideas down the line. Let's see.

https://tsla-oi.s3.amazonaws.com/lt.html

thanks; is there a way to indicate if option is buy or sell?

 

[UltradoomY]

thanks; is there a way to indicate if option is buy or sell?

It's always both!

 

[BornToFly]

I rolled up half my 700/900 for Dec 3 to 800/1000 on the dip. I don't know if I'm getting too aggressive. Definitely thought about some of the posts here about folks regretting rolling a winning position tighter. I'm thinking Berlin starting soon should help keep the SP from dropping too far into my spread.

 

[BornToFly]

I also opened some BCS 1550/1750 and 1600/1800 earlier on the climb for Dec 3rd to start creating iron condors.

 

[stealthyc]

I rolled up half my 700/900 for Dec 3 to 800/1000 on the dip. I don't know if I'm getting too aggressive. Definitely thought about some of the posts here about folks regretting rolling a winning position tighter. I'm thinking Berlin starting soon should help keep the SP from dropping too far into my spread.

And here I have been agonizing about whether I should roll up to 750/950. 1000 personally feels a little too aggressive to me for next week yet.

 

[generalenthu]

thanks; is there a way to indicate if option is buy or sell?

I get this question. I think it's easier to do with longer dated options, but could be tricky with very short dated stuff when markets are volatile.

Chameleon does this, and I don't have access to tick data. I am only working with 1 minute snapshots. But I'll try at some point. 2 weeks may be.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

I sold a few 805/905 for 12/3 @ $2.20. Looks like a good sized Put wall @ 950 so far for that week. 1000 is way too close for my personal strategy.

Edit. Looks like MMD isn't over, could have sold them for a bit a lot more.
Edit 2: I dont know what connection I have to the stock market, but it always seems to move opposite of what I want it to do shortly after I put in a trade. Maybe we do live in a simulation?

 

[Bunky]

Sold some 860/940's, too early apparently.

 

[mickificki]

some interesting comments on the market reaching a top from Puru Saxena, interview by Dave Lee(@DaveT ).

Sold my Jan 22 1500, March 22 900, March 22 1100 calls earlier today. Holding on to my Jan 24 1000 leaps.

Decision not based on any technical indicators or Dave's interview. God forbid I make an educated decision!

Market did feel a little toppy though. Might buy back in early next week.

 

[UltradoomY]

some interesting comments on the market reaching a top from Puru Saxena, interview by Dave Lee(@DaveT ).

Not sure I buy this too much - where else would you put your money right now if not the market?
1.6% on treasuries? Doubt it.
Real estate.. not sure that works with the long time horizon and WFH in the commercial space.
Companies are expanding earnings and growing rapidly.
If anything I can see a rotation out of old growth to new growth (i.e. Tesla) instead of a market wide correction.

 

[mickificki]

Not sure I buy this too much - where else would you put your money right now if not the market?
1.6% on treasuries? Doubt it.
Real estate.. not sure that works with the long time horizon and WFH in the commercial space.
Companies are expanding earnings and growing rapidly.
If anything I can see a rotation out of old growth to new growth (i.e. Tesla) instead of a market wide correction.

I think I agree with you mostly. I think Puru's point is that Powell will have to start tapering or he'll lose all credibility, before continuing with the money printing. And this could hurt the markets short term, which I think will begin to weigh on tsla. I'll stop commenting now before I clog up this thread, just felt like Puru's comments are pertinent to short term trading and for the next couple months.

 

[elasalle]

sold a few more Feb 18th 700 puts (on margin) , to fund a few more 1100-1200 verticals for the same date.

 

[euro2012]

I don’t think you are clogging up the thread at all. Macro views of the market should help decide strategies and strike prices. FWIW, this feels a little profit takey prior to a big US holiday to me, followed by a return to a Santa Claus rally in December.

 

[corduroy]

Finally opened some new positions. 12/3 -900/800s for around $3. I'm comfortable with 20% OTM level for now.

 

[BornToFly]

We are also going into end of quarter deliveries starting in earnest in Europe soon. So even if we dip below 1,000 this week, I'm thinking we end next week at least above 1,000....

 

[adiggs]

I've added some 750/1050 put spreads for this week at $7 or so. This has me all-in right now with calls covering almost all of my leaps at 1160, with most of my put spreads at 750/1150, and these new put spreads. All for this week expiration.

Hindsight being 20/20 and all, I got too aggressive with those 750/1150 spreads I opened yesterday. It wasn't the aggression though - it was selling the put spreads into weakness (shares going up without a strong feeling that the share price was at as low as I'd see before expiration). I went premium fishing (which I got) and now I'm in this position that I think I'll need to manage. What I've witnessed and experienced previously is that selling options into weakness, especially on a strong move as I did, is a Bad Idea(tm). I used this technique to get myself into trouble with some puts early in the year and it seems to play a prominent role in situations that go badly for me

I knew that and I did it anyway. Of course I still believe that these can come back pretty easily.

Wouldn't it be nice if we didn't need to learn, and re-learn, some lessons?

 

[st_lopes]

Haven't pulled a trigger yet, but am leaning towards doing the following...

• Flip roll 50x 1120/1220 11/26 BCS to 1000/1100 BPS 12/03;
• Roll the remaining 50x 1120/1220 11/26 BCS to 1200/1300 BCS 12/03;
• Forms an Iron Condor... so taking half my margin risk off the table;
• Guarantees at least one of the legs will expire OTM next week;
• Original credit received on 1120/1220 was 6.5; paying 11 debit on the BCS roll and receiving an extra 1 on the BPS;
• So, I can do the above for an overall net credit of $1.5 x 100 contracts;

Am I missing anything?

EDIT: Updated prices to get closer to neutral overall credit.

 

[ammulder]

I added two 960-1060 put spreads near the bottom for $20. Really not much, prefer my remaining margin as a volatility buffer, but it was a deal I couldn't refuse after closing out my p1000-1050s for $2 yesterday to build that buffer up again.

I looked at calls near the top and I just can't bring myself to do it -- they'd have to be so close to even hold a candle to the put pricing, and holiday volatility aside, I think with factory openings and Q4 numbers and Q4 P&L over the next couple months we're going up not down.

 

[BornToFly]

Looking at last year, we climbed the week of Thanksgiving and early December. Also trended up in 2019. Slightly more confident 1,000 holds.