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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Haven't pulled a trigger yet, but am leaning towards doing the following...
  • Flip roll 50x 1120/1220 11/26 BCS to 1000/1100 BPS 12/03;
  • Roll the remaining 50x 1120/1220 11/26 BCS to 1170/1270 BCS 12/03;
  • Forms an Iron Condor... so taking half my margin risk off the table;
  • Guarantees at least one of the legs will expire OTM next week;
  • I can do the above for an overall net credit of $2 when I consider the $4.5 cr I got for rolling in to 1120/1220;
Am I missing anything?
This looks pretty clever to me - I like this idea of cutting the problem in half like this.

To make this work (for a credit), it looks like you need for your strike to be pretty close to the money, such as those 1120 short calls in the BCS here. Of course you're thinking that the share price is going to go back up soon - maybe later today and this is about as good as it gets for cutting that problem down to size. You end up in a -1100p / -1170c IC - pretty reasonable chance that both sides go OTM, but as you say - at least one side will be settled next week.

The other benefit I see is that you aren't stuck in a position where you're betting on being right. I.e. - just rolling the BCS requires the shares to stay under 1170 for next week. If you flip roll everything into BPS and the shares keep going down then you've swapped one problem for another.

So I guess one question to ponder - do you like this position better (the 50/50 IC split with 1/2 the margin consumption), or do you like the flip roll into the BPS for all of those contracts? You'd keep the margin usage the same but then you'd be managing BPS. Which is better in your mind?


I just thought of this - an interesting characteristic of a flip-roll is that you can do one of these at a time that is idea for both sides of the roll. I.e. with shares down today flip rolling short calls into short puts gets you the best of both rolls. The short calls get BTC at a relatively good price, while the short puts are STO at a relatively good price. That's an interesting dynamic that needs some more pondering.
 
I’m sad my order to sell Covered calls before the dip didn’t go through, oh well. Sold 20x 17/12 700 strike puts for 2.75 credit it was an almost interesting premium for a low risk trade. I want to see how the theta decay occurs on one month long period.

All my other puts are in the 850 and low 900s expiring this week. Probably going to roll them tomorrow for next week.
 
FOMO or sound reasoning/mechanics?

Last Friday, sold a gambling day of 1x 1115CC which is a fraction of my IRA. It got exercised. First time ever selling TSLA and feeling FOMO (see Q4 catalysts).
Cost basis around 100.
Today sold 11/26 1100P for $12 (of course it immediately gets to $20 after).
Thinking:
a. trying to get my shares back
b. hey, I'm really doing the wheel now! :cool:
c. aggressive, weekly puts at least gives me room to maneuver if 2024 LEAPS gets juicier as I originally intended for
 
some interesting comments on the market reaching a top from Puru Saxena, interview by Dave Lee(@DaveT ).


Sold my Jan 22 1500, March 22 900, March 22 1100 calls earlier today. Holding on to my Jan 24 1000 leaps.

Decision not based on any technical indicators or Dave's interview. God forbid I make an educated decision!

Market did feel a little toppy though. Might buy back in early next week.

I did listen to the entire interview and I find myself agreeing on basically every point.

I have a hard time seeing the market stay here with the Fed tightening and multiple hawks screeching about inflation.

And like Puru said, I have never seen markets move sideways until fundamentals catch up. It is either up or down with them. And they have been going up for a while.

TSLA is so hard to figure how it would act. It must get hit if the macros dump, but you better be quick on that buy trigger because I firmly believe it will scream back up first, much like the COVID crash. On top of this, so many catalysts for the company in the next six months to a year... Needless to say I have short term positions that I trade around, but I have learned to leave my long term accounts alone.
 
FOMO or sound reasoning/mechanics?

Last Friday, sold a gambling day of 1x 1115CC which is a fraction of my IRA. It got exercised. First time ever selling TSLA and feeling FOMO (see Q4 catalysts).
Cost basis around 100.
Today sold 11/26 1100P for $12 (of course it immediately gets to $20 after).
Thinking:
a. trying to get my shares back
b. hey, I'm really doing the wheel now! :cool:
c. aggressive, weekly puts at least gives me room to maneuver if 2024 LEAPS gets juicier as I originally intended for
If nothing else you'll get some experience with the mechanics. You may even find that the wheel as a backup strategy is a pretty darned good backup :)

I personally found that I was all sorts of emotionally invested in getting from cash (puts) back to shares (calls) as quickly as I could after call assignment. Really easy to sell ATM puts in that situation :). I also found that I didn't like that particularly so the Wheel is a low desirability backup.
 
Where do you get your info about real time IV?
Thinkorswim

Screen Shot 2021-11-23 at 1.06.55 PM.png
 
Congrats Men and Women of TSLA Options, we did it!


One of Tesla’s oddest quirks is the fuel that has helped power its rocketing stock market value. Although its stock is wildly popular with many ordinary retail investors, the swelling size and hyperactivity of Tesla “options” — popular derivatives contracts that allow investors to bet both on and against a stock and magnify any gains and losses — has also flabbergasted many market veterans.
The nominal trading value of Tesla options has averaged $241bn a day in recent weeks, according to Goldman Sachs. That compares with $138bn a day for Amazon, the second most active single-stock option market, and $112bn a day for the rest of the S&P 500 index combined. This makes Tesla’s stock more prone to whipsaw movements, because of the “leverage” inherent in using options to trade.
 
Can we roll covered calls to infinity?
This AAPL stock is out of control.
Does anyone have a lot of data on this question — whether continuous rolling for say 6 months pays vs. taking the hit and selling calls at a wider range of prices than what you’d normally choose when rolling? I recently rolled Mar22$900 to May22$950 at a small credit…..and, of course, the SP rose $50 immediately. Now the BTC cost has doubled in the past few weeks.
 
On one hand, I feel like a genius buying 40x Jan 24 c1000's on Friday, but my mood is somewhat dampened by having sold 40x 11/26 c1200's against them 😭

Still, there's a chance they expire... not the 65x 11/26 c1100's I'm holding though 🤪

I'll sort it all out, no worries, I have a plan... first need to wait a bit, too much extrinsic in this week's expiries

At least the 20x 11/26 p1100's look in good shape 👍 probably won't be opening any puts for the rest of the year as I need $1m cash available (for accounting purposes), can't take the risk to have it all reserved against a load of ITM positions
My guess is volume will be very low on Friday with many traders not even working = opportunity for market maker shenanigans? Anyone know from experience?
 
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With the big price drop I decided to close up shop on the 1160 cc I've got. They started life as 1110s and rolled to this week as 1160s. Due to the really large drop I decided that I would take this opportunity, and be ready to reopen when the shares rebound. A couple % more and we'll trigger the uptick rule - that pretty much guarantees an up day (until it doesn't :D).