I don’t really follow the crypto markets, but my personal logic based on the idea that cryptos are the new gold (hedge against crashes)….wouldn’t that mean if people are dumping cryptos, then they are going long stocks on Monday?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Cannot say for certain but my observations seem to indicate that cryptos are part of ‘risk on’ rallies when they surge. Bloodbaths in crypto usually signal a big ’risk off’ day.
But they also cycle ridiculously fast and do not indicate much at all until Monday AM. In this case could be lagging indicator of people still looking for stuff to sell.
And up until now, cryptos always come back.
Everyone remember to take their Vit D!
Last week weekend Crypto predicted the Monday Morning opening sentiment.
Crypto definitely seems risk on/risk off play .. as well as inflation hedge
Need to pull out spreadsheet and plan for Monday
Need to manage multiple positions.Adapt or Die!!
(+ made one crypto trade in the middle of the night
)
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Last week weekend Crypto predicted the Monday Morning opening sentiment.
Crypto definitely seems risk on/risk off play .. as well as inflation hedge
Need to pull out spreadsheet and plan for Monday
Adapt or Die!!
(+ made one crypto trade in the middle of the night
Not following crypto closely, does this bode for an up or down Monday on TSLA?
I’m no expert by any means, but people like Corey from the stocks channel suggest that if Bitcoin broke below $52k (which it did) then it would signal that the markets would correct lower as well. Does not mean Tesla is going straight down, it will likely swing up and down a lot, especially given the VIX being over 20. Our support at $1000 will be interesting to watch next week!
corduroy
Active Member
If I had to wager, I think we break below $1,000 next week. I'm not entirely comfortable with my -850p's for next week. When I opened most of them, they were 25% OTM, but now 15% OTM which seems well within reach
I've been following Pura Saxena since his Dave Lee interview, and he is expecting another 18-20% S&P correction. His thesis is that this drawdown is a result of Fed tapering, not Omicron. Of course, his opinion could be totally wrong (I don't agree with his TSLA analysis). But agree with some of the signals he is looking at. Growth as a sector is getting hammered, while the overall market is still doing OK.
If we do get back into the 800s range I'll be looking at deploying some cash into DITM LEAPs. Caution is going to be the name of the game for me next few weeks.
ChefBoyardee
Member
Haven't posted in a while but I have some thoughts for positions:
I started with an 1140 two weeks ago, rolled to 1100 for last week, then to 1050 for this week, now to 1020 for next week. I was betting on a bounce Monday with this latest roll, but if I get the opportunity, I plan on rolling all positions to 900/850 Jan 7. The chart setup is looking way too similar to the last two Q4 peaks. I'm still not touching CC's though because fundamentals are
Here's a chart showing similarities to the past two selloffs. It's forming a cyclical pattern around Q4 to Q1 earnings. I'm hoping for Scenario 2, or for this pattern to stop, but I'm not going to take chances. Once my current positions have recovered I plan on keeping my margin usage light until April.
Potential reasons for this cycle to stop:
- Elon reducing the end of quarter surges will smooth out the quarters
- I don't anticipate much Q1 weakness since demand is massive
Potential reasons for the cycle to happen again:
- It's happened twice, and people may sell in anticipation
- Industry trends
What do you think?
I started with an 1140 two weeks ago, rolled to 1100 for last week, then to 1050 for this week, now to 1020 for next week. I was betting on a bounce Monday with this latest roll, but if I get the opportunity, I plan on rolling all positions to 900/850 Jan 7. The chart setup is looking way too similar to the last two Q4 peaks. I'm still not touching CC's though because fundamentals are
Here's a chart showing similarities to the past two selloffs. It's forming a cyclical pattern around Q4 to Q1 earnings. I'm hoping for Scenario 2, or for this pattern to stop, but I'm not going to take chances. Once my current positions have recovered I plan on keeping my margin usage light until April.
Potential reasons for this cycle to stop:
- Elon reducing the end of quarter surges will smooth out the quarters
- I don't anticipate much Q1 weakness since demand is massive
Potential reasons for the cycle to happen again:
- It's happened twice, and people may sell in anticipation
- Industry trends
What do you think?
The answer will have to do with Sunday crypto action a lot more than what just happened. For now the latest crypto crash means nothing for Monday. If it is getting slammed again Sunday PM into Monday AM I would say risk off trading day high probability. And don’t forget at random times market seems to remember that TSLA has BTC and either punishes or rewards accordingly.
Think best to include this as part of macros for now. Real question: what are macros doing Monday AM?
EDIT: We did have a hard spike in the last 15 minutes yesterday in the QQQs that TSLA did not participate in. Seems there were some people out there who thought next week would see some kind of bounce. Media hysteria over Omicron will play a huge role; will there be some positive data on Sunday concerning COVID? Then you should be able to bank on a bounce. Probably temporary given the atmosphere right now.
TSLA is so hard to gauge, because based on the company micros it is currently unparalleled in execution in its industry and anyone paying attention can see that it cannot meet demand for months with huge margins and it really seems like this has just started.
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Looking for some not advice, advice!
Just wanted to say thanks again for everyones help and guidance on this thread, you all gave me the confidence to get started. Since starting in October, I have been able to grow our account value by about 5%. Very, very happy with that return. I am only selling puts and staying between 15-20% OTM.
The choice I am running up against is whether or not I should buy some LEAPs (Jan 2024 1100-1200 look good to me) or use cash backed puts and run the other half of the wheel ( The Wheel on TMC keeps on turning!
). In this scenario I would sell ATM weekly puts and if they get assigned I would then flip and sell CC on those shares. Premiums on CC just dont seem like they are worth it and with the recent macro related drop in SP, seems like a good time to load up on LEAPs to gain some additional exposure to the stock and Q4/Q1. Regardless of which path I take here, I will keep selling puts.
This is a taxable account so I would likely keep those leaps for at least a year to minimize capital gains.
Thoughts?
Just wanted to say thanks again for everyones help and guidance on this thread, you all gave me the confidence to get started. Since starting in October, I have been able to grow our account value by about 5%. Very, very happy with that return. I am only selling puts and staying between 15-20% OTM.
The choice I am running up against is whether or not I should buy some LEAPs (Jan 2024 1100-1200 look good to me) or use cash backed puts and run the other half of the wheel ( The Wheel on TMC keeps on turning!
). In this scenario I would sell ATM weekly puts and if they get assigned I would then flip and sell CC on those shares. Premiums on CC just dont seem like they are worth it and with the recent macro related drop in SP, seems like a good time to load up on LEAPs to gain some additional exposure to the stock and Q4/Q1. Regardless of which path I take here, I will keep selling puts.This is a taxable account so I would likely keep those leaps for at least a year to minimize capital gains.
Thoughts?
Was thinking the same. Prices on calls make me want to buy instead of sell. Picked up some DITM for Jan and Feb and some 1400s for 2024. TSLA will be hard to keep down next 30 days, but macros will macro. Let’s see.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Here is a public link to this spreadsheet. This sheet doesn't work because it needs a ThinkOrSwim API Key. Which anyone can get, you don't need a TOS account. There is an instructions tab at the bottom that will hopefully walk you through getting it set up to work. If someone wants to refine the setup instructions, just pm your version of them to me and I will update them. They are from my notes when I first got this connector tool working. I don't have the time right now to create professional level instructions.
BPS Planner
BPS Planner Ticker,TSLA,Refresh quotes,TOS API Key,<YOUR-API-KEY-HERE> Date,12/10,DTE,-538 Short Price,$890,Strike % away Long Price,$800,Short Delta Avail Collateral,100000 % to invest,80% Ammount to use,$80,000 Fee per contract,$0.50,Calculations for looking from the short leg that I messed ar...
Greatly appreciated, got it setup and running in minutes! Thank you for making this tool available - not only it is helpful, it has demonstrated to me the ease of accessing data from TD, I'm now planning to expand use of just acquired API access in my other sheets. Thank youHere is a public link to this spreadsheet. This sheet doesn't work because it needs a ThinkOrSwim API Key. Which anyone can get, you don't need a TOS account. There is an instructions tab at the bottom that will hopefully walk you through getting it set up to work. If someone wants to refine the setup instructions, just pm your version of them to me and I will update them. They are from my notes when I first got this connector tool working. I don't have the time right now to create professional level instructions.
BPS Planner
BPS Planner Ticker,TSLA,Refresh quotes,TOS API Key,<YOUR-API-KEY-HERE> Date,12/10,DTE,-538 Short Price,$890,Strike % away Long Price,$800,Short Delta Avail Collateral,100000 % to invest,80% Ammount to use,$80,000 Fee per contract,$0.50,Calculations for looking from the short leg that I messed ar...docs.google.com
InTheShadows
Active Member
That’s great. I was hoping it would be easy to setup.
Yea my main log sheet gets the current prices for my positions and does the math to let me know what the price is. It also gets the 20 min delay stock price and calculates delta for me. Items also gotten that I don’t use anymore since I’m only in Tesla is industry and days to earnings. That was helpful when I was still of the diversified mindset.
Anyone here have experience setting up a holding company to do options trading? That is the advice i am getting from an established mid-size business advisory firm (ie like PcW, Deloitte, Ernst & Young, etc) to help reduce taxes from unregistered acct gains. All legit and legal, even setting up the holdco in tax-friendly Delaware.
The way it works is that each family member has a corporation. All corps are members of a limited partnership. The LP owns the holdco and the LP distributes gains/dividends back to the corps. I was told this is the preferred route used by the 1% to get richer.
me --> corp --> LP managing partner --> holdco
son --> corp --> LP researcher --> holdco
daughter --> corp --> LP secretary --> holdco
etc...
The full-service chartered professional accountancy does all the paperwork, file the annual taxes, etc. There will be outrageous fees, i expect, because the one-stop shop has the lawyers/accountants in one firm, but overall expenses will still be less than the current 50+% personal income tax rate. All i need to do is trade and they do all the gov't stuff.
I can imagine this is one way to reduce my taxes now, plus the benefit of slowly transferring wealth NOW to the next generation (to reduce probate fees later on). 2 birds in one stone. The kids don't have to "withdraw" from their corps; money can sit there for years until they need it (ie to buy a house).
The way it works is that each family member has a corporation. All corps are members of a limited partnership. The LP owns the holdco and the LP distributes gains/dividends back to the corps. I was told this is the preferred route used by the 1% to get richer.
me --> corp --> LP managing partner --> holdco
son --> corp --> LP researcher --> holdco
daughter --> corp --> LP secretary --> holdco
etc...
The full-service chartered professional accountancy does all the paperwork, file the annual taxes, etc. There will be outrageous fees, i expect, because the one-stop shop has the lawyers/accountants in one firm, but overall expenses will still be less than the current 50+% personal income tax rate. All i need to do is trade and they do all the gov't stuff.
I can imagine this is one way to reduce my taxes now, plus the benefit of slowly transferring wealth NOW to the next generation (to reduce probate fees later on). 2 birds in one stone. The kids don't have to "withdraw" from their corps; money can sit there for years until they need it (ie to buy a house).
Check out this thread. Professional Trader Status
I recently had a discussion with Anderson Advisors based on some very useful inputs from @KTC Lurker. I'm planning to sign up with them for my entity setup. Each case is different and these guys seem to know their stuff. I noticed your location says Canada so not sure if this thread is helpful for you but worth checking it out.
If someone could tell me what the closing price for TSLA will be next Friday I would really appreciate it. I’ve got some 900/800 bps expiring and I’m starting to get the heebie jeebies.
InTheShadows
Active Member
799. I don’t actually think this. However if you have the heebie jeebies now, what would you do if that’s where we end up Friday?
This is a good thought exercise to take your self through. Should you set any alerts to let you know if the stock gets to some price before then so you can take action?
I know what I would do and how I would manage the position. This is something I think every trader needs to think through and figure out on their own.
Sorry, I was being a bit flippant.
If it looks like the plunge will continue I will probably roll down and out by mid week. My reasoning for doing this is I believe that this is a short-term correction.
Here’s a good video for anyone wondering how to manage a BPS that’s heading for trouble. There are several well defined options on what to do depending on your situation and outlook on the underlying.
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LightngMcQueen
Aspirationally Rational
I am not a tax and/or investment professional but assuming that you and your kids are in Canada there might be complications:
I think what you are trying to accomplish is split investment income with family members. For Canadian Corp (Holdco or Opco) there is a concept of Tax of Split income (TOSI), which makes it very difficult to distribute income to family members. I was looking at setting up Canadian holdco and put it on hold for now, largely due to TOSI rules. Some of that rules apply even to adult children.
Are your advisors Canadian based, and aware of CRA rules? Are they sure that setting up holdco in US would allow you to bypass TOSI rules and distribute income to children? If yes, I would be quite interested to find out more about what your advisor is suggesting.
In addition to TOSI rules on a corporate level, for individual tax payers in Canada there are so called attribution rules .. ie if you just give the money to spouse or underaged child, the income generated from this money could be attributed back to you and still tax in your hands. I guess this would be also the case if you just gave the money to your kid as a seed capital for corporation which would then join LP.
You can work around it by giving children a loan and charging them interest at CRA prescribed rate (~1% right now). This is a relatively simple setup that accomplishes part of what you are looking for, there is no need to setup any corporations and there is not much fees. You do loose however tax deferral .. every year income is taxed in kids hands in a year the gain is made. If it is a capital gain then in Canada it is taxed at 1/2 rate ie 25% max not 50%.
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I’m a partner at one of the Big 4 firms, and I would say you may be better off working through a wealth management firm to design the structure in question and then have an accounting firm manage the annual compliance. The accounting firms are very hit or miss when it comes to HNW planning. The smaller firms are better suited but many don’t understand the cross border implications. Honestly, private banking arms or specialty wealth management firms (like Targeted Solutions) are likely best for this.
I would be wary of setting up a US-based HoldCo. This may be non-CCPC planning (to avoid additional “refundable” tax on passive income) which CRA absolutely despises right now.
Precisely for this reason, TOSI is a fairly new regime and very difficult to navigate. I would also recommend making sure whoever you work with understands cross border implications. For instance, US Estate tax very likely applies to you right now (40% tax on death based on market value of your US holdings). Though, I believe you hold cash and option trade rather than hold shares outright, so that may fall in to the exceptions to taxable assets for estate tax purposes.
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