It certainly feels like the selling the first half of each day is short selling, that has to largely unwind by the end of the day, bringing us back up to near the open by end of day. What I don't know is if this will continue for another 7-10 days. Will end of quarter FOMO be limited to the last week of the month?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
If you're right then it starts to sound like the previous 5+ years pattern. Maybe we're looking at signs of "normalcy" returning to TSLA trading.
Nah - we need more FUD articles taking things completely out of context and blowing them up to apocalyptic status, some analyst nonsense that totally (intentionally or not) doesn't understand the business, and some concern trolls around these parts. Well - analysts that are significantly more clueless than these days. Then we'd be back to normal.
Closed rest of BPS that expires this week with this pop. BPS for next week already 50% profit and may close that tomorrow if it’s another up day.
My “I dare you” 1050 CC in the red now
My “I dare you” 1050 CC in the red now
Holding my 12/17 -950/850 bps was no fun the last 2 days. These were a roll from -990/890 of last week.
Still wondering if I have to move them to the next year if this shorting BS continues.
Big Q if Elon will accelerate his sales from 1/week to 2/week with not much left of the year. If this was planned in Sep, would be a strange choice to do the fireworks @EOY.
Still wondering if I have to move them to the next year if this shorting BS continues.
Big Q if Elon will accelerate his sales from 1/week to 2/week with not much left of the year. If this was planned in Sep, would be a strange choice to do the fireworks @EOY.
Interesting closing (-cross?): look at that volume
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Same!
Well... nearly- my -950/+850s are rolls from -1020/+920....which were rolls from -1050/+950....which were rolls from -1080/+980....which were rolls from -1095/+995 (foolishly opened due to optimism on how well the market had taken Elons twitter poll the Monday after)
Always rolling for net credits, so it's been a nice lesson in never having to take a loss... but I much preferred the previous 6 months of just closing that weeks trades early for 80-90% profit and opening new ones
dc_h
Active Member
I opened some I dare you 1050 CC's as well. I'd prefer to be sweating a few of these than a pile of BPS. At least if a CC is called, my shares and leaps are winning.Closed rest of BPS that expires this week with this pop. BPS for next week already 50% profit and may close that tomorrow if it’s another up day.
My “I dare you” 1050 CC in the red now
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Loving this closing cross and AH action today. This morning's pop didn't bring 12/17 premiums down enough for me to close, so I'll be looking to close immediately at the open if any of this rise carries thru to the open.
I could see tomorrow being a selling day for Elon and perhaps shenanigans return. Either way, it sure looks to me like FOMO is overcoming any hedgie games the last two days.
Gonna be interesting tomorrow, ideally I can close out all 12/17 BPS and then Elon starts selling so we can open 12/23 BPS on a nice dip.
I could see tomorrow being a selling day for Elon and perhaps shenanigans return. Either way, it sure looks to me like FOMO is overcoming any hedgie games the last two days.
Gonna be interesting tomorrow, ideally I can close out all 12/17 BPS and then Elon starts selling so we can open 12/23 BPS on a nice dip.
We should call that a Bull Persephone Spread as it came back from the dead.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Spent some time on TA to justify my positions/options. Might be of interest here:
teslamotorsclub.com
TL;DR: $950 is a solid floor for BPS
Might be of interest here:TSLA Technical Analysis
On Monday last week the TSLA low was $950.50. Today it was $951.42. These are both near a fairly horizontal line of bottoms after the fall from the Hertz related runup. The line of tops from that high is slanted downward forming a pennant pattern, which normally concludes with a return to the...
teslamotorsclub.com
TL;DR: $950 is a solid floor for BPS
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
Just closed my 12/17 800/900 at about 90% gain. I am thinking that today is going to be a Elon selling day and we are going to see a slow drift down throughout the day. Just a random guess. 
Edit: Even with Elon potentially selling shares I think we still end the week between 950-1000 and my 800/900 would have been safe, i just wanted to free up the capital to be able to pounce on a good price for 12/23 750/850
Edit: Even with Elon potentially selling shares I think we still end the week between 950-1000 and my 800/900 would have been safe, i just wanted to free up the capital to be able to pounce on a good price for 12/23 750/850
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Waiting until mid-day to see if we get to a bottom to roll 700/900 BPS from 12/17 to 12/23. I should have closed at the open and done it as two separate trades. Now waiting to do it all together.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
If this is an Elon selling day, then it's bound to go down at least a hair more, or at least stay down til late afternoon. If it's not an Elon selling day, then there may very well be one tomorrow and/or Mon. So I'm setting my BPS sell orders pretty high and will just let them sit a while.
Was able to close out 70% of my 12/17 BPS at open to clear up margin for selling more 12/23 when the opportunity arises. This is why I really don't like the idea of rolling positions every week, you're selling at the same peak(premium trough) in which you closed the previous week's positions. That makes no sense to me, a minor convenience is NOT worth 30% of your weekly profits.
Was able to close out 70% of my 12/17 BPS at open to clear up margin for selling more 12/23 when the opportunity arises. This is why I really don't like the idea of rolling positions every week, you're selling at the same peak(premium trough) in which you closed the previous week's positions. That makes no sense to me, a minor convenience is NOT worth 30% of your weekly profits.
You can't know what the stock will do, there have been plenty of weeks and days where waiting for a better open would not have been better. Ultimately you are trying to capture the extrinsic value when selling options. You can certainly try to be opportunistic when the stock moves, but you are not just giving up 30% of your profits by rolling rather than separate exit/entry points. Sometimes it works to your advantage and sometimes it does not.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Closed my -950s at about $4 just at open, the weeks long rolling saga comes to an end... kept the long puts a few more minutes expecting a dip which did come a little so got a few extra pennies for those (eventually deciding it wasn't worth keeping a constant eye on for just a couple more pennies on top)
Debating if I wanna do a relatively "safe" new set of spreads for 12/23 like -800/+700 or something now, though premiums are not awesome presently for that (~1.40/sh) or if should just wait to see if we get an elon-sales dip later today.
Debating if I wanna do a relatively "safe" new set of spreads for 12/23 like -800/+700 or something now, though premiums are not awesome presently for that (~1.40/sh) or if should just wait to see if we get an elon-sales dip later today.
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
Exactly my thoughts (in my newbie trading brain) as well.
You abandon the entire "Buy low, Sell high" strategy (or is it STO high [IV], BTC low [IV]") and only rely on Theta for your gains. I am going to try closing at 80-90% gains on a Thursday and then wait for a 3-4% drop before opening a new BPS position Fri/Mon/Tue.
Thanks for that information and it does make sense as well since no one knows what the stock will do. Another great example of why this thread, and everyone here is so valueable. We have so many different perspectives and experience that we share and we all can learn exponentially quicker than doing it alone.
If a 3-4% drop does not happen and we get flat or up days and IV settles down, you will have lost a ton of extrinsic value by waiting until Tuesday. In no way am I saying that it is likely or not, with Elon selling drops certainly can happen on any day it seems, but also it could be Wed, or Thu of next week. It's just a guessing game, where you are hoping that the stock movement goes in your favor or IV rises faster than the decay from waiting.
Opened 10X Dec 23 850/750 BPS and 15X 880/800 BPS on the dip with stock around 963. I have a feeling we dip further so keeping some more margin available if it breaks the 955 resistance.
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