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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
dc_h
Active Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Waiting to see where things land, not opening up any BPS. We've seen things slice through "strong support" in the past 2 weeks like a hot knife through butter.
When fear rules, no "support" is safe until the bears have run their course.
Not advice.
When fear rules, no "support" is safe until the bears have run their course.
Not advice.
Is it dumb to try to sell RIVN BPS? I was thinking starting at $20 strike and below. For transparency I lost $10k on Rivian BPS before.
The market isn't being kind to companies that lose money. Rivian is expected to lose almost $6/sh in 2022 and about $5/sh in 2023.
I'm in for a $RIVN play, I like the product and the SP having dropped 87% from 52wk high, seems a more realistic valuation. Yes they need to sort out their scale manufacturing and cost-control, but I believe they have plenty of demand...
Anyway, STO 50x -p23 for this week expiry
Plus BTO 20x Jan24 $ARKK c30
I'm pretty sure that ARK pick their stocks very carefully and with most of them hammered 60 - 90% I think it's worth a small investment
Of course I'll be selling calls against LEAPS and shares as always...
Anyway, STO 50x -p23 for this week expiry
Plus BTO 20x Jan24 $ARKK c30
I'm pretty sure that ARK pick their stocks very carefully and with most of them hammered 60 - 90% I think it's worth a small investment
Of course I'll be selling calls against LEAPS and shares as always...
not-adviceIs it dumb to try to sell RIVN BPS? I was thinking starting at $20 strike and below. For transparency I lost $10k on Rivian BPS before
If I'd seen it coming I might have bought some puts to front run the Ford sales. Ah well.
It looks like Rivian has about 1B shares in circulation as well; with share price at $24ish, market cap is $21B. In Tesla terms that is Summer 2013 give or take. Model S had begun shipping and was even delivering non-trivial units each quarter, with a surprise profitable quarter in there that had triggered the run up to $100 (pre split), on the way to $220ish by Spring 2014 (the Tesla numbers are as I remember them, not me going back and looking at actual data
).I don't know the Rivian story to any meaningful degree, except that looks like a pretty rich valuation even now at $24ish per share. I base this largely by comparing that 2013 Tesla to the 2022 Rivian, a remarkably useless form of analysis, but it provides me with a crude yardstick.
not-advice
With shares near $800 I've entered some orders for June '24 500 strike calls at $440. That's at the bid - I'll need the shares to actually reach $800, or even a touch lower, for these to fill. While writing this I see that they have filled. This gets me to what I consider an overweight shares position. Still some room in my planning to go even further overweight should shares keep going down to the lower 700s.
Buying now does some dollar cost averaging, lowering my purchase price, while also locking in this lower share price should we instead see a sharp turnaround.
Everything I'm seeing recently, reinforces my continuing view for TSLA. The middle month of the quarter makes it that much easier for the Macro Story to win out, and with interest rate movements / inflation, there's a lot of bad macro news to be a wet blanket on everything. I expect the next round of significant Tesla news to be Q2 reports, with the possibility of split details in shareholder proposal info whenever that comes out. Until we get the next bit of significant Tesla news, I expect the shares to follow interest rates/ inflation / Ukraine more than Tesla.
With shares near $800 I've entered some orders for June '24 500 strike calls at $440. That's at the bid - I'll need the shares to actually reach $800, or even a touch lower, for these to fill. While writing this I see that they have filled. This gets me to what I consider an overweight shares position. Still some room in my planning to go even further overweight should shares keep going down to the lower 700s.
Buying now does some dollar cost averaging, lowering my purchase price, while also locking in this lower share price should we instead see a sharp turnaround.
Everything I'm seeing recently, reinforces my continuing view for TSLA. The middle month of the quarter makes it that much easier for the Macro Story to win out, and with interest rate movements / inflation, there's a lot of bad macro news to be a wet blanket on everything. I expect the next round of significant Tesla news to be Q2 reports, with the possibility of split details in shareholder proposal info whenever that comes out. Until we get the next bit of significant Tesla news, I expect the shares to follow interest rates/ inflation / Ukraine more than Tesla.
Next news should be something about the new model Ys I'd think?
not sure if that will do anything or if that is significant
not sure if that will do anything or if that is significant
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Maybe so - what news could it be, even theoretically, that will move the needle for the broad investor community?
Best I can think of is news that Berlin / Austin are ramping dramatically faster than anticipated and will contribute <x number> more units than anticipated in Q2. It would need to represent a material difference in guidance to provide that level of detail mid-quarter. Otherwise faster ramp will show up as a surprise in Q2 production report and we won't know until then.
Any other ideas?
Maybe FSD beta going live. I think it will need to go to the fleet, or at least a significant subset, for that to move the TSLA needle. As long as it is a restricted subset of beta testers, it will be viewed as something limited to active testers and not ready for use (as it should be). News that its released widely and that NDA restrictions are lifted - that might move the needle.
I was thinking more of the unknown specs Texas version
wide beta would be interesting though...I'm at a safety score of 64 currently
wide beta would be interesting though...I'm at a safety score of 64 currently
Rolled my Jan 2024 puts up and out to Jun 2024 and reduced contracts.
This is some crazy *sugar*
This is some crazy *sugar*
Closed out the -c900's I sold on Friday, ready for the big green day tomorrow
Closed out the -c900's I sold on Friday, ready for the big green day tomorrow
Ha! Me too! Bought a couple 5/20 985c as a lotto play.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
When TSLA shoots to ATH it'll do so completely out of the blue. Because that's how it has the most positive impact for MM's selling options.
I suspect we'll see a macro rebound which TSLA will participate in, then it rockets out of nowhere to $1550. Careful selling those call options kids!
688-952 
corduroy
Active Member
Crazy that we are looking at 20% OTM of 628, and who know if that is even safe. Might have to start selling puts in the 500s soon.
Tesla Inc Price (TSLA) Forecast with Price Charts
Tesla Inc Price (TSLA) Daily Price Prediction Charts
walletinvestor.com
After reading es2 and watching stocks channel vid it seems we have 2 options - hitting support tomorrow and turning green (per Cory support is 393 SPY or 762 TSLA), so about 1% and 2% fall respectively, so this can happen early in a.m. Then green.
Or busting through support and puking (margin calls, anyone?)
Looking at the orderly selling today, I’m thinking we bounce…per es2 this is not the bottom, so a few green days then back to bear market.
Or busting through support and puking (margin calls, anyone?)
Looking at the orderly selling today, I’m thinking we bounce…per es2 this is not the bottom, so a few green days then back to bear market.
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