I’m loaded up on 1100 BPS, so I won’t be the one talking you in to those
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
jeewee3000
Active Member
Not advice, but I wouldn't make that trade myself.
$1100 is much closer than it appears.
Pre-market high is around $960. Positive FED meeting could get us up to $1000 easily (4% rise).
If the ER turns out to be spectacular a 10% increase in the SP in two days (thursday and friday) is very very very achievable.
Don't get me wrong, if I were to gamble over/under $1100 by Friday's close I'd say under. But ask me if there is a likelihood of over $1100 and I say very much so.
So $1100 cc's I'd only sell against shares I'd be willing to lose.
$1200 cc's seem much much safer, and of those I could see myself selling a truckload indeed.
even if moves 10%+ in two days, how much will that option be worth with the 5%+ move on the first day with the IV crush?
You’ll be surprised how much of that $10 doesn’t evaporate if the SP is closeby.
Premium has a habit of holding on to the bitter end when volatility is high and closer to the money you are.
Now it will absolutely evaporate if SP is heading in the opposite direction.
Feeling better with this pre-market action!
New plan! (Maybe).
Is there a good, cheap, Call to buy for 2/4 that would 10X with an SP jump from 1000 to 1100 in the next two days?
Here is why I ask:
My new plan is to watch the ticker and hope we get close to 1,000 today. Then sell just enough Dec. 1100/800s to close out all my 1050/800 and 1050/850. This will limit the losses for the year and leave me with lots of margin to still trade BPS the rest of the year. But to capture some of the upside I could potential lose by closing the positions before earnings today, I want to buy some cheap calls that won't hurt too much if they expire worthless, but that will pay well (like 10X) if we have a 10% bump tomorrow.
So do the call buyers in the group have any non-advice?
New plan! (Maybe).
Is there a good, cheap, Call to buy for 2/4 that would 10X with an SP jump from 1000 to 1100 in the next two days?
Here is why I ask:
My new plan is to watch the ticker and hope we get close to 1,000 today. Then sell just enough Dec. 1100/800s to close out all my 1050/800 and 1050/850. This will limit the losses for the year and leave me with lots of margin to still trade BPS the rest of the year. But to capture some of the upside I could potential lose by closing the positions before earnings today, I want to buy some cheap calls that won't hurt too much if they expire worthless, but that will pay well (like 10X) if we have a 10% bump tomorrow.
So do the call buyers in the group have any non-advice?
I don't want to be a downer, and I understand this is not like regular ER's, but generally they buy on the rumour and sell on the news...
There is also already a big call wall for next week and this week at 1100.
Feeling better with this pre-market action!
New plan! (Maybe).
Is there a good, cheap, Call to buy for 2/4 that would 10X with an SP jump from 1000 to 1100 in the next two days?
Here is why I ask:
My new plan is to watch the ticker and hope we get close to 1,000 today. Then sell just enough Dec. 1100/800s to close out all my 1050/800 and 1050/850. This will limit the losses for the year and leave me with lots of margin to still trade BPS the rest of the year. But to capture some of the upside I could potential lose by closing the positions before earnings today, I want to buy some cheap calls that won't hurt too much if they expire worthless, but that will pay well (like 10X) if we have a 10% bump tomorrow.
So do the call buyers in the group have any non-advice?
I'm a call buyer
but not advice. I think the Feb 04 1200 calls were selling for 5$ as of yesterday's close and I already hold 15X of those that I bought last week at 6.50. My YOLO target for this is a 3X or 4X. IV is high and with today's pre market spike I don't think there are many 10X or even 5X opportunities so you might have to temper your expectations a little bit .Edit: In my view we will see traders de-risking going into the fed meeting today so you might be able to wait for a good opportunity to buy calls instead of chasing them.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Feeling better with this pre-market action!
New plan! (Maybe).
Is there a good, cheap, Call to buy for 2/4 that would 10X with an SP jump from 1000 to 1100 in the next two days?
Here is why I ask:
My new plan is to watch the ticker and hope we get close to 1,000 today. Then sell just enough Dec. 1100/800s to close out all my 1050/800 and 1050/850. This will limit the losses for the year and leave me with lots of margin to still trade BPS the rest of the year. But to capture some of the upside I could potential lose by closing the positions before earnings today, I want to buy some cheap calls that won't hurt too much if they expire worthless, but that will pay well (like 10X) if we have a 10% bump tomorrow.
So do the call buyers in the group have any non-advice?
I have he many losses over the years by buying OTM calls, especially at binary events, like earnings, battery day, cybertruck reveal, etc.
If I do any event call buying now I go with ITM calls. I bought a (as in only 1 contract) 850 call for March a few days ago when it was ATM.
Our selling method is tried and true. Yea we all got blindsided by a compounding almost black swan event multiplied by greed a few days prior. (At least that’s what happened to me)
I destroyed my accounts in 2014 because I went into “make up for the losses” mode and started taking riskier and riskier trades until I had wiped out almost every account I had.
I took 3 years off from trading after that, and then when I did start stepping back in I set some rules in place. A few I have violated, but one rule that is an absolute must that I have is my ‘Time out’ rule. And it is when I have a big loss, close what open positions I currently can at break even or better, and enter GTC for other positions hit that point while I’m away and do not open any new positions for 5 trading days. These 5 days off help to cool my head and give me time to reflect on what went wrong.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We're limited to 1100 this Friday and 1200 next Friday? I wouldn't call that being "a downer".
As for buying calls.....the premiums yesterday were absurd, I expect them to be even crazier today. However, I do think retail will be buying calls like crazy, and that might create a squeeze.
The few calls I wanted have already been bought. I don't even know myself anymore.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Why not just watch SP move up and the contracts expire?My new plan is to watch the ticker and hope we get close to 1,000 today. Then sell just enough Dec. 1100/800s to close out all my 1050/800 and 1050/850.
Maybe I'm interpreting the chart wrong, but I see 7500 calls for 1100 strike on 4/2.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
So what's the braintrusts general thoughts for folks still holding stuff like -1000/+900 BPS for this Friday? Hold till tomorrow and hope a rally expires us worthless?
Roll during a pop today? If so to when? (or close for a tiny loss even?)
Roll during a pop today? If so to when? (or close for a tiny loss even?)
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
I'm almost in the same position. -980/+830 for this Friday and curious of other's plans. My initial thought/plan is close them out tomorrow.
I feel like the ER numbers are going to be awesome and potentially lots of good news (GA is open, CT update sooner than EoY, and faster v3 charging stations and some other things that I am forgetting. With the 'pop' from MSFT after good news I think that the SP of TSLA will pop as well.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'm in similar position. 1000/950 and 975/925 BPS's.
I'm in a holding pattern till Powell's conference this afternoon. If that goes well, in a holding pattern TSLA earnings tonight (i.e. tomorrow AM open).
I, too, have expiring 1100/900 and 950/900 BPS. Would it not be better to wait to close or roll them after ER, given the IV crush that usually happens? That way you also let Jerome do his thing, and let the ER dazzle which are hopefully positive influences on the stock price.
Chiming in since nothing I thought would happen did...... my bad all - no FOMO rally this week.
That being said, I think that it bodes well since there hasn't been a buy the rumor, it's hard to sell the news.
Could very well happen but I don't see it after tonight.
I am holding a bunch of $1125 P's that are a bit under water at the moment.....
A bunch of 02/18 $1150's also a bit under.... (bought these at $30 - currently $20)
Just opened a ton of -$850 / +$750 BPS' for $9 each with 2 DTE and IV crush coming up in about 8 hours.
Very satisfied with these positions since I can roll the sold puts out indefinitely and the bought calls up and out as well for time.
Margin use holding steady at 30% - it was under 20% before todays open of BPS
Stick with the plan! My $1125 P's still have over $5 of time value left in them at least until tomorrow morning when I will have to think about things.
That being said, I think that it bodes well since there hasn't been a buy the rumor, it's hard to sell the news.
Could very well happen but I don't see it after tonight.
I am holding a bunch of $1125 P's that are a bit under water at the moment.....
A bunch of 02/18 $1150's also a bit under.... (bought these at $30 - currently $20)
Just opened a ton of -$850 / +$750 BPS' for $9 each with 2 DTE and IV crush coming up in about 8 hours.
Very satisfied with these positions since I can roll the sold puts out indefinitely and the bought calls up and out as well for time.
Margin use holding steady at 30% - it was under 20% before todays open of BPS
Stick with the plan! My $1125 P's still have over $5 of time value left in them at least until tomorrow morning when I will have to think about things.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I think that depends on where we open Thursday morning... if there's a sell the news it may well outweigh the IV change to the negative.... and with Elon being on the call there's always the risk of him saying something that'll get reported out of context as massively negative overnight. (OTOH if there's still no rally/run up today, what's there to "sell" on the news?)
And the collapse in IV also means if the puts are still well ITM tomorrow morning early assignment starts becoming a significant risk I'd think
If you look at the premium for the 1100, and subtract the current SP from 1100, you will see there is almost no IV value in those. There is in the 900s. So I think IV crush will actually hurt you, not help you on the 1100/900s, if the stock is between 1100 and 900 tomorrow.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I didn't look at the charts pasted, was picturing the 2/4 chart from a couple days ago with the huge call spike at 1200. Just like it changed from then til now, if we go to 1100 this week as that current chart and market sentiment implies, then the 2/4 chart will quickly revert to a megaspike at 1200. Probably a decent one at 1300 as well.
I guess it matters which chart you paste in the post first!
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