Pulling this discussion out of main and into this options thread. As we are much more experienced with options, everyone here knows that Artful’s explanation is spot on. However, I wanted to add that for some time I’ve thought the “published” number on MaxPain.com is incorrect, probably an error in the calculation. Today’s is pasted below and says $280.00, which is clearly wrong. Looking at the table, EVERY SINGLE strike below 300 has puts dominating, while EVERY SINGLE strike above 300 has calls dominating (and 34k/40k ratio at 300). There is absolutely no way that the correctly calculated MP was more than a few pennies from $300 at open. For weeks I’ve seen little discrepancies, but nothing this glaringly obvious. Probably something to do with the split. Remember @Drezil posting that there were duplicated options showing awhile back.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I've tried to recreate their 'Max Pain' number by downloading the data in their Options contracts table, but have never be able to replicate their numbers. I also think they're wrong.
Cheers!
P.S. TSLA just 'closed the gap' to yesterday's intraday low a few minutes before 13:00 EDT:
I think it's the quarterly sugar-puts skewing the OI. Even though they're worthless, I think the put OI between strikes $1.67-50 at ~150,000 vs. the call OI between $550-600 at ~60,000 still factors into the calculated max pain?
Thanks for the reply Reddy and Art. I guess I need to look beyond just the number hey?! Do any other red/green deutans like me struggle with this?
Isn't this like 3 Fridays in a row we're right around 300? I've been selling 300 straddles but am never able to hang on until the end of the week.
For what it's worth, I have been able to recreate the max pain value from open interest (previously, didn't redo it today). This week has a very flat trough.
Rolled 105x -c300's to 15x -c293.33's & 75x -c300, I'm busy with house move and will eat-out this evening, so can't be sitting there watching the ticker for the right moment
As it is, that's a net +$6.5 roll, close to $20 pre-split, which es excellent. Yes, I've pinched a bit more premium on the -c293's, but still
And no writes against the LEAP this week, as the premiums are good, I'm not going to stress myself out over those going ITM and all that entails
As it is, that's a net +$6.5 roll, close to $20 pre-split, which es excellent. Yes, I've pinched a bit more premium on the -c293's, but still
And no writes against the LEAP this week, as the premiums are good, I'm not going to stress myself out over those going ITM and all that entails
SebastienBonny
Member
I guess it won’t be McDonalds tonight
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willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
This week does seem off for some reason. I've got a utility that does a quick scrape of the Yahoo Finance data here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/options?p=TSLA
At this moment, the Max Pain for options expiring today seems to be 294.17
corduroy
Active Member
More daytrading 9/23 -275p's, in at $2 out at $.90. Everything closed, nothing carrying over the weekend. (Also closed out of all SPY ICs for the week).
This is my evolving strategy of taking small quick profits, low DTE trades, not carrying too much risk. Shavings make a pile.
This is my evolving strategy of taking small quick profits, low DTE trades, not carrying too much risk. Shavings make a pile.
Closed out my 300cc for this Friday. Was looking to be closer to 300, maybe even finish OTM that would have been my preference, but went ahead and rolled to next week 305 for a $3.70 credit. I would much rather sell those shares next week at 305 and 3.70 credit, than this week at 300 (retaining 2.08 credit). I like the "this week vs. next week" test when deciding whether to roll or close.
I kept the 3.70 credit pretty high (about 2x my usual target these days) so that if the shares reverse then it'll be a good week for earning credits. I rolled up the strike so if the shares take off then I'll get an extra $ or $$ over the 300 strike. For the next month or so, or at least through the first week in October, I am working from an assumption that there is so much good (surprising to Wall Street) news coming that Tesla may disconnect from macro / S&P / stock market for a short time.
I don't expect that to last much more than a week past earnings and for macro to take back over the balance of the year, but the upside possibilities are too strong (my own opinion) to ignore.
Decided to open 280 csp for next week - 1.50ish credit.
That leaves me mostly uncovered, but partially 305cc set off by 280csp. I probably roll the csp down at least once before taking assignment, but ready to own more if pushed
I kept the 3.70 credit pretty high (about 2x my usual target these days) so that if the shares reverse then it'll be a good week for earning credits. I rolled up the strike so if the shares take off then I'll get an extra $ or $$ over the 300 strike. For the next month or so, or at least through the first week in October, I am working from an assumption that there is so much good (surprising to Wall Street) news coming that Tesla may disconnect from macro / S&P / stock market for a short time.
I don't expect that to last much more than a week past earnings and for macro to take back over the balance of the year, but the upside possibilities are too strong (my own opinion) to ignore.
Decided to open 280 csp for next week - 1.50ish credit.
That leaves me mostly uncovered, but partially 305cc set off by 280csp. I probably roll the csp down at least once before taking assignment, but ready to own more if pushed
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
WOW, what a closing cross! 23M shares.
The BPSs I opened during the ridiculous dip on Tuesday for next week are doing extremely well. Obviously, I have a lot on the table now for next week, but it will turn out to be one of the best weeks of the year as long as the SP doesn't drop too much next week (which I doubt).
Total positions for next Friday:
30X 285 CC on old buy/write
10X 300 CSP
5X 295 CSP
600X -250/+225 BPS
200X -245/+220 BPS
Total positions for next Friday:
30X 285 CC on old buy/write
10X 300 CSP
5X 295 CSP
600X -250/+225 BPS
200X -245/+220 BPS
jeewee3000
Active Member
Around .3
I pocketed around $24k for those for next week. 70% profit now and letting them ride.
As you know, it will be worth rolling that B-W CC up to capture the $15+ capital gain, even paying a debit to do it (as long as debit < cg).
My strategy on BPSs is to be far enough OTM that I never have to roll them or lose money. I learned that the hard way in January with the ITM BPSs I had to roll to December (which are currently tied up $11Million in margin). Because I have $Millions in margin, I can make a good living selling a lot of VERY safe contracts for little money. I envy the market makers that have endless capital, who can make .1 selling all the contracts they want very far OTM with no chance of losing. That is my ultimate goal. The pessimist would point out that I'm putting a huge amount of capital at risk for little gain. But safe bets with small earnings are where it's at, IMHO. (Previously with BPSs I would kill it for 3 months, and then a horrible week that would lose it all).
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Yes, when they pay less than $3 to roll at the same strike (because they are too far ITM), I have been slowly rolling up. I just don't want them to end up too far OTM if the SP drops. With the dip on Tuesday I was able to roll early for the same strike for over $3 after making over $4 on the previous roll.
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