Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[UltradoomY]

Thanks for correction (I double-checked and you’re right, I had the 2-day meeting dates wrong).

Appears the rebalancing is happening throughout this week, didn’t someone show numbers that the % will decrease so there will be net selling from that one effect?

Likely a wash with the rebalancing - since some funds that track the S&P couldn't buy when Junk rated can now carry TSLA as a partial investment grade stock.
Also, highly likely we see massive volume again through Thursday - then the closing cross on Friday is going to be a stunner - I am predicting 50M shares traded during the closing cross Friday.

Additionally, shares cannot be sold into a vacuum - some one is buying them, more than likely ahead of this rebalancing to provide the shares at a profit.
I still have my P $175's I sold last week - going to see what happens on Friday and decide to assign or roll. Leaning towards assignment and "Wheeling" them through the earning report in about 35 days.

Things I want to hear about on the Q4 call - New Giga's, Cybertruck dates, Semi ramp, Texas, Germany ramp and Insurance.

Not going to do anything but sell aggressive Put's until then and depending on the outcome of the Q4 earnings, will probably sell even more.

Buy / Write at these levels is also very attractive, since you can roll up and grab more. This company is not going to $0 or bankrupt.

As @adiggs and others have mentioned, always be prepared for a 50% drop in TSLA... Wish he would have said 60%!!

Things are going to be good, let's make some money, remember - Bulls make money, Bears make money - pigs get slaughtered....

 

[JSML]

Here's how I look at the share price and how low it could go

1) If Tesla grows EPS for the next 24 months at 33% per year, a $ 160 share price implies a PE of 25 at the end of 2 years.

2) If Tesla grows EPS at 30% per year, a $ 150 share price implies a PE of 25 at the end of 2 years.

3) If Tesla grows EPS at 25% per year, a $ 140 share price implies a PE of 25.

This is based on trailing 12 months earnings of $ 3.61 per share. Tesla's stated growth goal is 50%. I still believe $ 160 or there about could be the bottom as long as Q4 production / delivery numbers show 45% growth. In any case a $ 140 share price is deep deep value territory for Tesla and I don't think we need to worry about $ 100 a share.

 

[scubastevo80]

Sold $150 12/30 puts this morning for $5.30. I'm happy to pick up more shares at this level. If we go lower, I'm going to start selling consumer staples holdings of mine that have performed well to permit more cash secured puts.

 

[intelligator]

No surprise, got assigned 2 Jun '24 383.33. I tried to roll these yesterday, they sat all day, no bite at midpoint. The ask/bid diff was $14, at 7.50 or 8.00, no interest at all. I setup two more orders to get the rest rolled, hope they fill.

What to do with the long side... I want to sell the long put now but if we are going lower, that gains value. The new cost basis for the assigned 200 shares is 223.89, ugh. Worth the wait or just let those long puts go now? What would you do?

 

[BornToFly]

Pivot is now 156 because BB going down.

If the market doesn't like the FOMC, we might see 140s today.

 

[Yoona]

in the 1st hr of MMD, sp is bouncing along the lines

yesterday's Low was tested... MM might try 156.18 next?

 

[Discoducky]

Just got off the line with eTrade and my account manager mentioned that they can resolve a collateral deficit in a margin account at ANYTIME and are NOT held to any pre-notification requirement.

Prior to this, I held the understanding that they were forced to wait 3 business days as they state this in their messaging. Apparently, if things get way out of balance, they can act immediately, without any warning.

Be careful out there!

 

[kabin]

Nibbled on more shares today. SP should continue to fall especially if vehicle demand is waning. TSLA needs a quick CT production ramp-up among other things.

 

[OrthoSurg]

in the 1st hr of MMD, sp is bouncing along the lines

yesterday's Low was tested... MM might try 156.18 next?

View attachment 884921

All the Nasdaq is green while MMs are sending TSLA straight to the support test.
If I see 154 I instantly sell ATM CCs

 

[CrunchyJello]

Premiums for far OTM are very tempting.
Submitted an order for Mar17 100p for $3.50

 

[vikings123]

It looks like Leo thinks Elon was selling:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602952201055326208

Can this guy get any more desperate? He posted earlier this morning comparing Elon to short sellers. The problem really is this guy bought the top and is asking the BoD to bail him out. He is likely going to sell into strength above his most recent buy point. Pure insanity.

We should however track this guy just because he can be the next TSLA hangover and that could just add more fuel to the fire.

 

[kabin]

Just got off the line with eTrade and my account manager mentioned that they can resolve a collateral deficit in a margin account at ANYTIME and are NOT held to any pre-notification requirement.

Prior to this, I held the understanding that they were forced to wait 3 business days as they state this in their messaging. Apparently, if things get way out of balance, they can act immediately, without any warning.

Be careful out there!

Yep. Sounds like some are tightening the screws. Tastyworks sent out an email about margin changes for multi-account holders but said there was no impact on portfolio margin accounts.

 

[BornToFly]

Nibbled on more shares today. SP should continue to fall especially if vehicle demand is waning. TSLA needs a quick CT production ramp-up among other things.

They are increasing to three shifts in Berlin on Monday to make MORE Ys....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602936599054061568

 

[BornToFly]

Are we back to easiest way to make money is sell TSLA shares at the close, buy next day after MMD?

 

[Yoona]

he is the only Elliott Wave guy in TWTR that i follow

i saw him very early this yr (March?) predict that TSLA would fall to ~150 and didn't believe him at that time coz sp was in the high 300+ i think

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603060739970932738

 

[Max Plaid]

Can this guy get any more desperate? He posted earlier this morning comparing Elon to short sellers. The problem really is this guy bought the top and is asking the BoD to bail him out. He is likely going to sell into strength above his most recent buy point. Pure insanity.

We should however track this guy just because he can be the next TSLA hangover and that could just add more fuel to the fire.

Yes, his tweets haven't been the most rational in recent days. Nevertheless, as he's one of the top individual shareholders, I would expect Tesla IR to pay him a bit of attention, but they don't seem to. So it's not just us small fish getting the cold-shoulder...

 

[Cherry Wine]

he is the only Elliott Wave guy in TWTR that i follow

i saw him very early this yr (March?) predict that TSLA would fall to ~150 and didn't believe him at that time coz sp was in the high 300+ i think

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603060739970932738

I don't put a lot of stock in a March prediction of $150, as a lot of fundamental things had to happen to get TSLA to where it is today that essentially bailed out this guy's prediction.

 

[kabin]

They are increasing to three shifts in Berlin on Monday to make MORE Ys....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602936599054061568

Sounds like China is a different story. But even then they can build all they want - the trick is selling them. My local TSLA store's overflow lot is packed with brand new shiny Teslas. Tesla's online website shows US demand isn't keeping up with production even with a $3750 discount. And if it continues some expensive new factories will suck money from the coffers instead of plunking money into.

 

[Jim Holder]

Yes, his tweets haven't been the most rational in recent days. Nevertheless, as he's one of the top individual shareholders, I would expect Tesla IR to pay him a bit of attention, but they don't seem to. So it's not just us small fish getting the cold-shoulder...

Any ideas what’s the play why they continue to choose to ignore. Are things that bad internally that they’re afraid to say anything?

 

[adiggs]

Looking for some input - I've got some ITM put spreads that I'm looking to roll. Because of how spread roll dynamics work I would like to roll to a date when I expect resolution, rather than going week to week. My feeling is that the share price is particularly manipulable and not driven by actual Tesla news for the next couple of weeks, so I'm not going to roll 12/16 expiration to 12/23.

I do expect news and share price impact to be pronounced though around P&D so I am deciding between rolling to 12/30 and Jan 6. And I have several spreads to choose from!


The 175/160s I just rolled to Jan 6 175/155s for a trivial credit (.05). I think I could have gotten closer to .25. This is one of those places where trading a spread is a significant disadvantage - at least with Fidelity I have never seen a spread fill at anything other than my limit price (no price improvement). I rolled these already as both legs went ITM - its also a smaller position that I'm likely to roll for an extended period, if necessary, as I'd like to get more experience with how these ITM spreads evolve. I also considered 180/165s but decided that the incremental credit wasn't worth the worse short strike.

I have 170/155s - I semi-expect I'll roll these today. Maybe not of course - its not unreasonable to think we'll see a positive move later in the day, but these are getting close to what I think is "roll now" as the long leg is ATM.

I also have 145/160s that, right now, I expect to ride close to expiration. Actually I think they've got a more than reasonable chance of finishing OTM - they're just going to be exciting for a few days.


Any ideas / suggestions / not-advice? 12/30 or 1/6? Or heck - do you have a case for rolling all the way to post-ER expiration?