Before Q3 I had picked 2024 EOY as seeing 300+. Now I think that won't be until 2025 sometime. Thesis hasn't changed much but I've just pushed it out a bit.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Closed out -c200/205/220, still holding -c210 and -p200/205. Don't usually like to close on Mondays but figured why leave it hanging out there when it's already 50%+ gain. Also picked up a couple more 1/26 +c100. A rally to 240 would be awesome now but I'd be happy to get back to 220 to reopen some short calls.
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I've seen them all morning and they eventually hit after some time. Not sure if the 193.36 fake LOD print will but worth being defensive.
No change to my own long term thesis. 10x the ATH by 2030 is my simplistic view of things. I think it highly unlikely we go that far by 2025, but I also wouldn't be shocked.
The lower margins is something that might be here forever, between competition coming in a decade or so, plus Elon and Tesla choosing lower margins in order to keep the manufacturing output growing at such a high rate.
Reality is that I expect margins to fluctuate a lot more than most investors are accustomed to because the decision making at Tesla is driven by a different underlying view of the world. Namely - MBA types learn in school to keep prices as high as possible consistent with utilization of assets, maintaining pricing power, maintaining market share, etc.. Tesla chooses prices based on growing units by 50%, and the corresponding increase in manufacturing assets, while maintaining positive cash flow and profitability, all in service to the Secret Master Plan and company mission.
Its one reason Tesla doesn't fit well into the boxes people learn about in MBA school, and makes it harder for MBA trained financial people to analyze the company. Tesla is in business to achieve the mission, rather than being in business to make a buck (or at least that's the way I see it). There aren't very many of these around
Meanwhile I don't see any of the other American or European manufacturers being in danger of growing their EV business in a big way, or becoming cash flow positive, or becoming profitable. All 3 things need to happen, in approximately that order. I do see expenses going up for other manufacturers, making it harder for any of those things to happen.
End result for me - I've already begun buying the Jan '26 300 strike calls, and expect to buy more soon. We've broken below 200 today - I started buying around 220 or 230 ($52 for that option); I see that they're down to $38 or so right now and that means its about time to buy more for me. An important driver for this decision is that I am currently much higher cash than I'd like to be, so I am actively looking to buy.
I have 200 strike puts for this week that I hope to be assigned - I add some more of those calls at $35 I think, and that looks like a share price of 190ish to me.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
DI003 please share with us what do you see for the SP in your magic glass for this week, Still going down to 185 before rebound and Santa Rally?
Probably willing to sell STO the Dec $190 ~ 12.5$…
As I said, ~ $195/196 was WEAK support, next strong support is ~ $184.8..then nearly nothing of confidence
As I said, ~ $195/196 was WEAK support, next strong support is ~ $184.8..then nearly nothing of confidence
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There are strange up and down spikes. I thought they were just Fidelity issues. But they show up in other places too.
Oddly, sadly, expectedly I think they are real, don’t think $190 is going to hold, moving STO PUT target now to Dec 15/23 $185 for $10.75
buying back Nov $225 -CC ~ $1.60, sold 8.5$ last week - probably will go to zero.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There were such spiked on Friday too in Fidelity (active trader pro, desktop). But they are gone now.
My guess is there are some trades being entered into the exchange now that were done outside the exchange. But are not being tagged properly (I'm assuming there is a way to enter these trades and tag them as external).
I bought to close all my Jan 2024 350CCs that I had sold in June. Closed them for just 0.4. I should be able to make that back easily on weeklies. Waiting for a Green Day. Hopefully tomorrow based on China numbers. This sell off is ridiculous given we are going to have a massive record quarter and start of Cybertruck. I know EPS is down, but this all seems very short sighted.
gabeincal
Active Member
Rolled -10 x Nov 17 135c -> Dec 15 -135c for $1.5 credit
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Today SP is decoupled from Macro, SPY, AAPL, and QQQ are up in greens. No major news for Tesla that could have explain for the drop.
TA is driving this along with extreme fear of EV slowdown.
Tomorrow China Number and generally rebound after big drop should bring some green tomorrow. However, that maybe short live since FOMC and Apple are on Wed and Thursday.
I'm sensing a rebound tomorrow and continue drop toward 18X this week. Be cautious and good luck for the week guys.
Transferring my brokerage account so I will be out of play for a couple of days.
TA is driving this along with extreme fear of EV slowdown.
Tomorrow China Number and generally rebound after big drop should bring some green tomorrow. However, that maybe short live since FOMC and Apple are on Wed and Thursday.
I'm sensing a rebound tomorrow and continue drop toward 18X this week. Be cautious and good luck for the week guys.
Transferring my brokerage account so I will be out of play for a couple of days.
Just bought 5 of them today for $37
Thanks for making me not feel the only guy buying the endless dip
This is the most plausible explanation I've seen. I'm skeptical it's the actual reason, but it could be...
I joined @adiggs and @OrthoSurg and dipped my toe in the water on those Jan '26 $300s.
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