Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

They could be saving their ammo for P&D. A poor or weak P&D will provide them with a glorious opening to give us an ugly April. And if the Q1 earnings call on April 17 goes as bad as the last FOUR we’ll get an ugly May-June as a bonus kick in the pants

Yup... I know there's a lot of debate between TA vs fundamentals- but I don't expect good things if we're still down here at P&D in 4 weeks and deliveries are only like 420k or something.

 

[thenewguy1979]

sry i was beautifying my dashboard - remind me daily to make sure i really get it

View attachment 1024922

Uh Oh - did someone went overboards with the ICs on SMCI lately? It did went up 250 yesterday.

Hope you Ok. Been quiet lately……

You know we love you here…especially the dog wink wink. Cheer up…..

 

[Yoona]

Uh Oh - did someone went overboards with the ICs on SMCI lately? It did went up 250 yesterday.

Hope you Ok. Been quiet lately……

You know we love you here…especially the dog wink wink. Cheer up…..

all good

 

[Jim Holder]

Not so sure we are done with lows on TSLA, see below:

"Tesla Mgmt refused to agree yesterday at IR meeting in Austin that auto gross margins had bottomed at 3Q of 16.3%, and their verbal cues reinforced Jonas’ view that auto GM could fall further in 2024." (Gary Black)

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has slashed his $TSLA 2024 Delivs, Auto GM, Adj EPS, and Free Cash Flow ests:

- Delivs 1,998K (+10% YoY) vs 2,077K (+15% YoY) previously
- Auto GM ex-Reg Credits of 11.4% (vs 13.2% previously) and vs 17.6% in 2023
- Adj EPS $1.51 vs $2.04 previously (WS at $3.07) and vs $3.12 in 2023
- Free cash flow of <$100M vs $1.0B previously, and vs $4.4B in 2023

Jonas: “We expect Tesla’s 1H24 results to come in below expectations… If there was ever a time for Tesla to potentially post a GAAP EBIT loss, it may be this year.”

This is consistent with the message we heard in our meeting with Tesla IR yesterday in Austin, which cited several 2024 headwinds that could cause 1Q volumes to come in sharply below Street expectations of 475K (we believe 425K more likely).

Mgmt refused to agree that auto gross margins had bottomed at 3Q of 16.3%, and their verbal cues reinforced Jonas’ view that auto GM could fall further in 2024.

Mgmt implied 2024 Adj EPS could fall well below 2024 WS ests of $3.07 (vs $3.12 in 2023), positing that 2024 “is an investment year.”
(Gary Black)

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765284697561550867

 

[thenewguy1979]

Not so sure we are done with lows on TSLA:

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has slashed his $TSLA 2024 Delivs, Auto GM, Adj EPS, and Free Cash Flow ests:

- Delivs 1,998K (+10% YoY) vs 2,077K (+15% YoY) previously
- Auto GM ex-Reg Credits of 11.4% (vs 13.2% previously) and vs 17.6% in 2023
- Adj EPS $1.51 vs $2.04 previously (WS at $3.07) and vs $3.12 in 2023
- Free cash flow of <$100M vs $1.0B previously, and vs $4.4B in 2023

Jonas: “We expect Tesla’s 1H24 results to come in below expectations… If there was ever a time for Tesla to potentially post a GAAP EBIT loss, it may be this year.”

This is consistent with the message we heard in our meeting with Tesla IR yesterday in Austin, which cited several 2024 headwinds that could cause 1Q volumes to come in sharply below Street expectations of 475K (we believe 425K more likely).

Mgmt refused to agree that auto gross margins had bottomed at 3Q of 16.3%, and their verbal cues reinforced Jonas’ view that auto GM could fall further in 2024.

Mgmt implied 2024 Adj EPS could fall well below 2024 WS ests of $3.07 (vs $3.12 in 2023), positing that 2024 “is an investment year.”
(Gary Black)

Wow. Will be Closing all -192.5p upon opening at a loss. Luckily I bought some +172.5p just in case we fall through. This is looking ugly with TSLA the only mag 7 in red.

World not falling but perhaps a correction to the reality of where TSLA stand.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Come on now claiming 9 figures in damages?

Tesla Says German Plant Sabotage To Cost Several Hundred Million Euros

US electric carmaker Tesla said Tuesday that an act of sabotage that knocked out power to its German factory and forced it to halt production would cost the company several hundred million euros.

www.barrons.com

Dog try to be level minded but it seems we are in real big BEAR territory guys.

 

[Jim Holder]

Come on now claiming 9 figures in damages?

Tesla Says German Plant Sabotage To Cost Several Hundred Million Euros

US electric carmaker Tesla said Tuesday that an act of sabotage that knocked out power to its German factory and forced it to halt production would cost the company several hundred million euros.

www.barrons.com

Dog try to be level minded but it seems we are in real big BEAR territory guys.

Think of all the castings that were stuck in machines that are now scrap, all the robots that need resetting, lost production, repairs, and lots of other things like that. Not sure if the figure is actually that high but I am no Tesla expert.

 

[mongo]

Come on now claiming 9 figures in damages?

Tesla Says German Plant Sabotage To Cost Several Hundred Million Euros

US electric carmaker Tesla said Tuesday that an act of sabotage that knocked out power to its German factory and forced it to halt production would cost the company several hundred million euros.

www.barrons.com

5,000 cars per week at $40k ASP = $200 Million per week or $40 million per day (5 day production week), 3 days to hit >$100 million
And that's ignoring all the scrap on the line, restart costs, equipment repair...
There are 6 gigapresses that could have been mid cycle when the factory went dark. All the aluminum has gone solid. Robots all halting in a at least as bad as E-stop manner. Inertia does not stop instantly.

 

[bopdit00]

Come on now claiming 9 figures in damages?

Tesla Says German Plant Sabotage To Cost Several Hundred Million Euros

US electric carmaker Tesla said Tuesday that an act of sabotage that knocked out power to its German factory and forced it to halt production would cost the company several hundred million euros.

www.barrons.com

Dog try to be level minded but it seems we are in real big BEAR territory guys.

Seems like everyday there is something really bad happen. Coincidence?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Not so sure we are done with lows on TSLA, see below:

Tesla Mgmt refused to agree yesterday at IR meeting in Austin that auto gross margins had bottomed at 3Q of 16.3%, and their verbal cues reinforced Jonas’ view that auto GM could fall further in 2024.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has slashed his $TSLA 2024 Delivs, Auto GM, Adj EPS, and Free Cash Flow ests:

- Delivs 1,998K (+10% YoY) vs 2,077K (+15% YoY) previously
- Auto GM ex-Reg Credits of 11.4% (vs 13.2% previously) and vs 17.6% in 2023
- Adj EPS $1.51 vs $2.04 previously (WS at $3.07) and vs $3.12 in 2023
- Free cash flow of <$100M vs $1.0B previously, and vs $4.4B in 2023

Jonas: “We expect Tesla’s 1H24 results to come in below expectations… If there was ever a time for Tesla to potentially post a GAAP EBIT loss, it may be this year.”

This is consistent with the message we heard in our meeting with Tesla IR yesterday in Austin, which cited several 2024 headwinds that could cause 1Q volumes to come in sharply below Street expectations of 475K (we believe 425K more likely).

Mgmt refused to agree that auto gross margins had bottomed at 3Q of 16.3%, and their verbal cues reinforced Jonas’ view that auto GM could fall further in 2024.

Mgmt implied 2024 Adj EPS could fall well below 2024 WS ests of $3.07 (vs $3.12 in 2023), positing that 2024 “is an investment year.”
(Gary Black)

His FCF model is...certainly interesting to say the least.

 

[Singuy]

5,000 cars per week at $40k ASP = $200 Million per week or $40 million per day (5 day production week), 3 days to hit >$100 million
And that's ignoring all the scrap on the line, restart costs, equipment repair...
There are 6 gigapresses that could have been mid cycle when the factory went dark. All the aluminum has gone solid. Robots all halting in a at least as bad as E-stop manner. Inertia does not stop instantly.

Aren't there insurance for these type of things?

 

[Tachyon]

When was the last time we had a semblance of good news ? I am even ready to take a Not -a- bad news too ?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Think of all the castings that were stuck in machines that are now scrap, all the robots that need resetting, lost production, repairs, and lots of other things like that. Not sure if the figure is actually that high but I am no Tesla expert.

Clearly a lot of cleanup costs, but can’t the production hit be limited to perhaps the extent of inventories? No more price cuts in Europe?

 

[Jim Holder]

Review of post from @dl003:

Watch 2 levels: $181.06 and $175.01

1) If we close any day below $181.06 but above $175.01, that'll be a signal to close shorts and ATM/ITM CCs.
2) If we don't trade below $181.06, then watch momentum for exhaustion.
3) If we trade below $175.01, bears in full control.

 

[juanmedina]

If my $170's and a single $175 puts hit this week I think I am going to take the shares (I bailed on the $177.5's at no lost). Q1 doesn't look great but it is clear that Tesla is the front runner with BYD and that legacy is folding under the price war and that new comers are going bankrupt. Also, FSD is starting to look very promising. I closed 95% of my Tesla position starting at $255 until $220. I will save some most of my ammo after Q1 and if it doesn't work out .... oh well. Long term we should be alright .

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765303251262435595

 

[ChiefRollo]

Think of all the castings that were stuck in machines that are now scrap, all the robots that need resetting, lost production, repairs, and lots of other things like that. Not sure if the figure is actually that high but I am no Tesla expert.

I rarely look to Barron’s as a source of truth on Tesla.

 

[mongo]

Aren't there insurance for these type of things?

I expect Tesla is mostly self insured.
10-K:

Our insurance coverage strategy may not be adequate to protect us from all business risks. We may be subject, in the ordinary course of business, to losses resulting from products liability, accidents, acts of God and other claims against us, for which we may have no insurance coverage. As a general matter, we do not maintain as much insurance coverage as many other companies do, and in some cases, we do not maintain any at all. Additionally, the policies that we do have may include significant deductibles or self-insured retentions, policy limitations and exclusions, and we cannot be certain that our insurance coverage will be sufficient to cover all future losses or claims against us. A loss that is uninsured or which exceeds policy limits may require us to pay substantial amounts, which may harm our financial condition and operating results.

 

[Jim Holder]

I rarely look to Barron’s as a source of truth on Tesla.

I don’t think one needs Barrons to know that a power failure in a massive factory has lots of unintended consequences, scrap, lost production, etc..

 

[Patrick66]

I don’t think one needs Barrons to know that a power failure in a massive factory has lots of unintended consequences, scrap, lost production, etc..

The thing is a power loss is an expected occurrence. Critical systems will generally be designed to stop-safe, although many procedures may not be well tested. There is still a cost, but the magnitude should be minimal.