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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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This is much ado about nothing. The stock will go down tomorrow. All this is a a 5 1/2 year loan at 2.95% with an option to terminate and sell back to Tesla at a rate that is sure to be below market.

Now for the plus side... from a marketing point of view this will highlight the true affordability of a Tesla and will hopefully spur some additional reservations, however I do not see them going through the roof!

POI, in the conference call, Elon clarified that the residual promise is the minimum value Tesla will pay after 3 years. If the actual market value of the car is higher, Tesla will pay the market price.
 
POI, in the conference call, Elon clarified that the residual promise is the minimum value Tesla will pay after 3 years. If the actual market value of the car is higher, Tesla will pay the market price.

And who will be deciding what this market value is? Last time I checked, market value is what someone is willing to pay you? It's not listed somewhere...
 
It absolutely will. The goal of this is to get people who are savvy consumers (read as want to build equity and can't get themselves to lease) to try the car out. This is a great plan. It's not even a loan because there's 0 down payment.

This is much ado about nothing. The stock will go down tomorrow. All this is a a 5 1/2 year loan at 2.95% with an option to terminate and sell back to Tesla at a rate that is sure to be below market.

Now for the plus side... from a marketing point of view this will highlight the true affordability of a Tesla and will hopefully spur some additional reservations, however I do not see them going through the roof!

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POI, in the conference call, Elon clarified that the residual promise is the minimum value Tesla will pay after 3 years. If the actual market value of the car is higher, Tesla will pay the market price.

Exactly, it's pegged to a proven indice as insurance because the Model S is new and there is no other car to compare to apples to apples.
 
excellent program that will guarantee sales at full capacity (25,000/yr) for foreseeable future. The stock is already up big so a neutral showing is better than I expected (sell the news), but I think this is a moderate positive that will hold TSLA for now-
I'm long, but not as much as I want...
 
excellent program that will guarantee sales at full capacity (25,000/yr) for foreseeable future. The stock is already up big so a neutral showing is better than I expected (sell the news), but I think this is a moderate positive that will hold TSLA for now-
I'm long, but not as much as I want...

stock is down after hours. I'm hurting for now. Hoping the announcements in the next few weeks will be good as well.
 
Actually it is a loan and there is a downpayment. The downpayment is being paid out by the tax credits. I guess you can say that this is one benefit to the plan as you will receive the benefit of the tax credit upon delivery versus sometime next year after you file your return.

From what I gather the down doesn't come from your pocket, which is a huge win in my book. Time value of money right? With that said, I know people hate to invest in a depreciating asset, but if I were going for a S class or E class I would rather build some equity than no equity for a superior product that has a residual price floor with no hassle if negotiation.
 
From what I gather the down doesn't come from your pocket, which is a huge win in my book. Time value of money right? With that said, I know people hate to invest in a depreciating asset, but if I were going for a S class or E class I would rather build some equity than no equity for a superior product that has a residual price floor with no hassle if negotiation.


Nope, here's the transcript:

Unknown Analyst
You'd still be putting money down though because the tax credits only come in a particular time. Right? I mean you still have to front the money don't you?

Elon R. Musk
Yes. It's -- there is some time delay which can vary from 3 months to a year sort of thing, depending upon when you buy the car versus when tax time is. Actually I think the California one is immediate -- sorry the California one is immediate, the federal one is a tax time.

 
So the stock is down over $1.25 after-market due to the disappointing news. I think we may be in serious risk of giving up all of the gains of the past two days and heading back below $40. Anyone else think so as well?

We'll see fluctuations, but there's too much to price in. There will be three announcements (1 each week for the next 3 weeks). Also people have to run the demand numbers in light of this new financing/lease hybrid plan.

Monday was a mini short squeeze. There is still a huge amount of shorts out there that need to cover. I'd suspect they would do this for the next few weeks although not in such a frenzied manner like yesterday. You need to think long term and with a Warren Buffet mindset.

Does this company have a solid product? Yes
Does this company have a CEO that has half a brain? Yes
Does the company care about their customers? Yes (some may argue otherwise, but from what I've experienced they do)
Does the company need to get a huge amount of market to make money? No

It's not that the news is disappointing, it's that many of us (me included) got way too excited and our expectations were in the clouds.
 
*yawn*, the big announcement that was "arguably" bigger than a profitable first quarter is...the formalization of the leasing they'd already announced before. I'm sure it's good for business, but as a surprise announcement it was quite a let down.
 
i agree the announcement was a yawn and i think the stock will take a short term hit. Yes i will be adding to my position. The key now is to watch the reservation rate. Will the pace quicken over the next few weeks. The problem i see with this measure is that we are entering a seasonal upturn for car buying so the real test will be market share which I don't believe we have enough info to truly measure.
 
i agree the announcement was a yawn and i think the stock will take a short term hit. Yes i will be adding to my position. The key now is to watch the reservation rate. Will the pace quicken over the next few weeks. The problem i see with this measure is that we are entering a seasonal upturn for car buying so the real test will be market share which I don't believe we have enough info to truly measure.

The old "floor" seemed to be $35... with an initial quarter of profitability on the table, I think that floor goes up to around $40. I agree that there will be a short-term hit, because a leasing program isn't "hot" news for the market, but I don't think there will be a major selloff. The hard numbers from the quarterly report are still to come, and that should provide some incentive for people to wait and see rather than sell.
 
i agree the announcement was a yawn and i think the stock will take a short term hit. Yes i will be adding to my position. The key now is to watch the reservation rate. Will the pace quicken over the next few weeks. The problem i see with this measure is that we are entering a seasonal upturn for car buying so the real test will be market share which I don't believe we have enough info to truly measure.
With no reservation numbers any more, how can we?
 
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