Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[gg_got_a_tesla]

"Hello, hello
(Hola!)
I'm at a place called Vertigo
(Dónde está!)"

 

[Robert.Boston]

We need to start thinking about the very real possibility that TSLA is added to the S&P 500 sometime this year.

I looked into this a few months ago, and I don't think it will happen soon. There are various criteria that must be met to join the S&P 500. Tesla won't meet the following one for a while:

Financial Viability. Usually measured as four consecutive quarters of positive asreported earnings. As-reported earnings are Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) net income excluding discontinued operations and extraordinary items. For REITs, financial viability is based on as-reported earnings and/or Funds From Operations (FFO), if reported. FFO is a measure commonly used in REIT analysis.

Another measure of financial viability is a company’s balance sheet leverage, which should be operationally justifiable in the context of both its industry peers and its business model.

 

[Citizen-T]

Good point. Probably not this year then if I'm reading that correctly. I'll have to do some more research. Need to see what other companies looked like just before they were added.

 

[Ocelot]

ooomph. had two buy orders in last week. none of which happened. :cursing:

 

[mrbry]

:biggrin: - that is all.

Superwishful thinking... I wonder if folks trading this stock to buy a model S will create a positive feedback loop... stock goes up, everyone buys model s, sales go up, stock goes up more, rinse repeat.

 

[smorgasbord]

if it breaks $45 the sqeeze is on.

Broke through $46, dipped slightly, then just broke through again. Up over $8 - more than 20%.

Anyone with Short Squeeze experience care to state whether we're in that territory?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

ooomph. had two buy orders in last week. none of which happened. :cursing:

Sorry to hear that. But then, you could have easily bought the stock, except you wanted to pay less than where it was trading...

 

[hershey101]

Broke through $46, dipped slightly, then just broke through again. Up over $8 - more than 20%.

Anyone with Short Squeeze experience care to state whether we're in that territory?

I cleared out of my position on the slight dip (although I could have made a bit more money, I'm glad to have locked in the profits). Does anyone think that at $47 tomorrow's announcement, whatever it may be, is already priced into the stock? Is breaking $50 really a possibility? I mean we, on the forms, were expecting 5200+ deliveries, and they only said 4750. Yea they are slightly profitable on a smaller number, meaning they are making more $/car sold, but still, aren't we going a bit overboard here at $47 (yea I know its $46.xx, I'm rounding up)?

 

[Citizen-T]

It is extremely difficult to judge what an appropriate price for TSLA is given what happened today and the uncertainty around tomorrow's announcement. The market might be disappointed tomorrow, or it might be completely surprised. WHO KNOWS?

 

[c041v]

Whoa. My day just got a whole lot better.

 

[aznt1217]

It is extremely difficult to judge what an appropriate price for TSLA is given what happened today and the uncertainty around tomorrow's announcement. The market might be disappointed tomorrow, or it might be completely surprised. WHO KNOWS?

Yea that's the problem I (and I'm sure others are having). On the plus side I hope we have established a new floor once this insane day is over.

 

[Teslawisher]

It is extremely difficult to judge what an appropriate price for TSLA is given what happened today and the uncertainty around tomorrow's announcement. The market might be disappointed tomorrow, or it might be completely surprised. WHO KNOWS?

Guess I'm set for both. Have buy order in case of disappointment, and another sell order in case we're all going whooo hoooo!!!!!

 

[ckessel]

It's been crashing pretty steadily since the high point of the day. I suppose even if it returns to the opening price that's a mighty gain for the day.

 

[xhawk101]

9,000,000 in volume!

from my Samsung galaxy s3

 

[Citizen-T]

It's been crashing pretty steadily since the high point of the day. I suppose even if it returns to the opening price that's a mighty gain for the day.

It just met some resistance at $46.50. It seems to be gathering itself together to make another run at it now. Look at the chart, the same thing happened at $45. I think we might be maxing out here though. I have an order in to take some profits north of $46. Just a little though.

 

[luvb2b]

there's a note circulating from some firm that says that much of the gaap profit could be due to a change in the warrant liability for the us gov't loan. anyone have any details on that? looks like most of the analysts are very skeptical of this news of profitability. goldman analyst seemed very iffy about it and i've seen a few notes saying the advance is overdone.

 

[Zzzz...]

there's a note circulating from some firm that says that much of the gaap profit could be due to a change in the warrant liability for the us gov't loan. anyone have any details on that? looks like most of the analysts are very skeptical of this news of profitability. goldman analyst seemed very iffy about it and i've seen a few notes saying the advance is overdone.

It is really hard to make numbers work, I saw you were trying, CapitalistOppressor too, I was doing my back of envelope calculations. GAAP profitability is really hard to come up with even with very optimistic assumptions, that are still realistic from what is known...

And do not forget, no single analyst predicted any sort of Tesla profitability for Q2 '13, forget about Q1. And "consensus" was overly skeptical even for Q3 '13...

So I really looking forward to actually see this quarter report.

 

[nygiants242]

Do you guys think Musk's big tweet has been "priced in" already? It popped right after he tweeted it, but returned to normal levels a few hours later before cloes (if I remember correctly) meaning there could still be some further upside. Not sure how to play it heading into tomorrow.. I guess it all depends on the nature of the announcement, but I am trying to get an idea of how badly it could dip to the downside if it is disappointing.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Do you guys think Musk's big tweet has been "priced in" already? It popped right after he tweeted it, but returned to normal levels a few hours later before cloes (if I remember correctly) meaning there could still be some further upside. Not sure how to play it heading into tomorrow.. I guess it all depends on the nature of the announcement, but I am trying to get an idea of how badly it could dip to the downside if it is disappointing.

No, I don't think it is -- because there's been no consensus (or even a leading candidate, IMO) about what the announcement tomorrow will be. It's really hard to price in something that you can, at best, take a WAG at. With someone like Elon, the variance of what he might announcement is huge.

 

[ckessel]

It just met some resistance at $46.50. It seems to be gathering itself together to make another run at it now. Look at the chart, the same thing happened at $45. I think we might be maxing out here though. I have an order in to take some profits north of $46. Just a little though.

Pretty much back at the opening price. That's a pretty good day, but it didn't make another run. If Elon/Tesla announces the "surprise" pre-market, it'll be interesting what happens.