Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[CyberDutchie]

Typically I think US market will price higher today. I would not be surprised if we see $10 plus upside today..

And that means new ATH today. :biggrin:

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More info on it here - this is really going to be interesting today:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Deutsche+Bank+Upgrades+Tesla+Motors+(TSLA)+to+Buy%3B+Theyve+Only+Just+Begun.../8535313.html

This one is huge:

5. Based on proprietary work, we now expect the Gen3 veh to fully close the cost gap to non-EV competition with margins in the 25% range.

 

[kevin99]

Same here! I wait up and open iPad in bed with eyes half closed. That thing was too bright! Sees the $132-$128 price range on the chart and though It was on a monthly chart shows price from 2 weeks ago when it was ath. Adjusted to the daily range and still sees $128. Though I lost Internet. Lol.

Deutsch bank upgrade and a new price target!

Now I am fully awake! Time for coffee....

 

[c041v]

Same here! I wait up and open iPad in bed with eyes half closed. That thing was too bright! Sees the $132-$128 price range on the chart and though It was on a monthly chart shows price from 2 weeks ago when it was ath. Adjusted to the daily range and still sees $128. Though I lost Internet. Lol.

Deutsch bank upgrade and a new price target!

Now I am fully awake! Time for coffee....

I'm glad I'm not the only one that does this.

 

[twinklejet]

Hmm... stable around 128 - 129 today huh? doesn't seem to hold up above that... I think it'll just fall cos volume will just taper off.. unless something else happens today...

 

[toastypasta]

Sold my August and september calls.
Going to buy back in later today or monday. I don't trust this stock to hold ever.

 

[twinklejet]

Looks like it's just gonna trend downwards the rest of the day... I don't believe it will hold up at these levels too for today.. and since its friday, profit taking for the weekend?

 

[toastypasta]

Would love for it to come down to 125 again so i can buy calls

 

[marvinat0rz]

@Realist: Do you have a price or scenario at which you will change your mind about your short position? I guess that scenario could just resolve itself due to margin requirements etc, but given that shorts are so rare on this forum it would be interesting to hear your reasoning. Personally I will sell if it becomes reasonably clear that Tesla will not be a disruptive force in the global auto industry.

 

[willowspuppy]

My broker has borrowed the shares, so I can hold on to that short position für quite some time. I have to pay a 3% interest. So far it is deep in the red, obviously.

I think Q2 will suprise to the upside, as expected. For certain Mr. Musk will also give a bullish outlook für Q3. It remains to be seen if the street still believes that.

In contrast to most of you guys I believe a collapse of the stock price is very likely if not inevitable. The demand for the Model S is not sustainable at that level and warranty expenses will destroy any proft margin.

The Model S has reached its current sales figures with zero advertising budget. The "Lease/Finance" option is only available in 8 states. I believe demand has a long way to go yet.

 

[jeff_adams]

@Realist: Do you have a price or scenario at which you will change your mind about your short position? I guess that scenario could just resolve itself due to margin requirements etc, but given that shorts are so rare on this forum it would be interesting to hear your reasoning. Personally I will sell if it becomes reasonably clear that Tesla will not be a disruptive force in the global auto industry.

He's from Germany and is basing his investment strategy on the fact that Tesla has only sold a few hundred cars there so far. He doesn't believe they will get the market penetration they are projecting for Europe outside of the few Countries with heavy EV tax incentives.

 

[fjm9898]

Pending market movements, it looks like we could hold 127.50 for the day.

 

[NigelM]

My broker has borrowed the shares, so I can hold on to that short position für quite some time. I have to pay a 3% interest. So far it is deep in the red, obviously.

I think Q2 will suprise to the upside, as expected. For certain Mr. Musk will also give a bullish outlook für Q3. It remains to be seen if the street still believes that.

In contrast to most of you guys I believe a collapse of the stock price is very likely if not inevitable. The demand for the Model S is not sustainable at that level and warranty expenses will destroy any proft margin.

Thanks for the honest update; on a short term basis do you think there's a price where you'll start to hedge?

(Sorry, I can't wish you good luck but I guess you know that.)

 

[Jhall118]

I just want to go on record that I think some of the large plays (especially in options) some people are making into this earnings give me anxiety just thinking about them. I keep going back and forth on what is going to happen. Everyone thought the short squeeze was going to happen for months before it did. I can't envision a $200 Tesla anytime soon, and think the market is being irrational since it crossed the $80 line.

My heart says "go big, so you can get your Performance Model S!!" but my brain just won't let me pull the trigger.

However, I love Tesla, and am rooting on the sidelines for you big players. Good luck

 

[sleepyhead]

I just want to go on record that I think some of the large plays (especially in options) some people are making into this earnings give me anxiety just thinking about them. I keep going back and forth on what is going to happen. Everyone thought the short squeeze was going to happen for months before it did. I can't envision a $200 Tesla anytime soon, and think the market is being irrational since it crossed the $80 line. However, I love Tesla, and am rooting on the sidelines for you big players. Good luck

The stock is still severely undervalued. The reason for this is execution risk and some people still not believing that demand is sustainable (this is the only real risk to TSLA IMO, but I have no fear that it will ever materialize). Once they get closer to the Model X launch and Gen 3 reservations, the execution risk as well as demand risk will go away and the stock will be $300+.

Get in today at $127 while it is still cheap. I talked a friend into investing in TSLA about a month or two ago when it was making ATH's at around $110. I met with him for lunch on Wednesday and he told me that he is a full believer now and that he was thinking of putting in 100% of his 401k into TSLA and asked my opinion. He said that he is waiting for a pullback closer to $100 before getting in. I told him, "not going to happen, buy all the stock today at $121 because it is not going down." After earnings it will blow by $200 within a few months.

 

[Realist]

@Realist: Do you have a price or scenario at which you will change your mind about your short position? I guess that scenario could just resolve itself due to margin requirements etc, but given that shorts are so rare on this forum it would be interesting to hear your reasoning. Personally I will sell if it becomes reasonably clear that Tesla will not be a disruptive force in the global auto industry.

Anything above 150 would be too much pain for me. I will take the loss than.

From a fundamental perspective I don't see a real change to my opinion. The valuation is insane, even in the very very best scenario.

Making Money in the car business is difficult. Tesla has massive challenges ahead. They are producing cars at an extreme pace, but the car has obvious design and concept flaws. Just look at the various threads in this forum. The car has a long list of problems and so far no one has owned this car for more than a year.

If you have 2 or 3 warranty issues on each car you destroy your profit margins. The key is to get the quality sustainable. Tesla is far away from that. If there is a serious issue with the car they could get wiped out in weeks without capital injection.

 

[Causalien]

I just want to go on record that I think some of the large plays (especially in options) some people are making into this earnings give me anxiety just thinking about them. I keep going back and forth on what is going to happen. Everyone thought the short squeeze was going to happen for months before it did. I can't envision a $200 Tesla anytime soon, and think the market is being irrational since it crossed the $80 line. My heart says "go big, so you can get your Performance Model S!!" but my brain just won't let me pull the trigger. However, I love Tesla, and am rooting on the sidelines for you big players. Good luck

That's a good attitude. Getting into a stock with the expectation to use the profit to purchase an item sets the investor on the wrong state of mind. Often staying in a trade longer than necessary because your mind will think'Just another dollar and I could afford that model s' In reality, you should get out when the market turns against you, NOT after you have enough for a model S

 

[Discoducky]

Anything above 150 would be too much pain for me. I will take the loss than.

From a fundamental perspective I don't see a real change to my opinion. The valuation is insane, even in the very very best scenario.

Making Money in the car business is difficult. Tesla has massive challenges ahead. They are producing cars at an extreme pace, but the car has obvious design and concept flaws. Just look at the various threads in this forum. The car has a long list of problems and so far no one has owned this car for more than a year.

If you have 2 or 3 warranty issues on each car you destroy your profit margins. The key is to get the quality sustainable. Tesla is far away from that. If there is a serious issue with the car they could get wiped out in weeks without capital injection.

But are you hedging your bet? What would make you an optimist outside of a $150 target? All above is subjective as worded

 

[emupilot]

I love the smell of volatility in the morning - thanks for the profit taking opportunity, Deutsche Bank!

 

[StapleGun]

We've become more comfortable with the walk to 25 percent gross margins in Q4 (in fact, we expect an upside surprise in Q2). And now see potential for 35%+ on vol’s >50k

Wow! 50k at 35% margin is around $1.5 billion in profit (assuming $90k avg. price). I assume they are talking about 2015 for 50k volume, that represents about $13/share in 2015. Of course there will be some other expenses, but it shows that the current price could be justified even without considering Gen III.

 

[sleepyhead]

Even Deutsche Bank is way too pessimistic in their research report, I don't know why these analysts can't get their numbers correct. I am specifically referring to the 21,700 delivery number for 2013.

I am willing to bet a $1,000 (I would bet a lot more if I wasn't married - that is why they invented the stock market to gamble legally on borrowed money :tongue that Tesla will do more than 21,700 and not by a trivial amount either.