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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
As pointed out in a few great posts just now, let's remember that we have been discussing a possible profit in Q2 here for a while, based on some real facts, hints, numbers and last but not least VERY high quality understanding and insight. All this while EVERYONE (at least officially, GS I'm glacing at you) on the street are calling a definite loss for Q2 - as has Tesla themselves in their Q1 report! So don't underestimate what may happen if the stars align and there is an undebatable profit in Q2... All this being said against the still massive short interest.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
As pointed out in a few great posts just now, let's remember that we have been discussing a possible profit in Q2 here for a while, based on some real facts, hints, numbers and last but not least VERY high quality understanding and insight. All this while EVERYONE (at least officially, GS I'm glacing at you) on the street are calling a definite loss for Q2 - as has Tesla themselves in their Q1 report! So don't underestimate what may happen if the stars align and there is an undebatable profit in Q2... All this being said against the backdrop of a still massive short interest.
ShortSlaver
Member
I'm still not convinced that a profit will be posted - however, I do believe they will outperform. Just all the data we've seen suggests that. If a profit is indeed posted then it's party time. I feel like a miss or coming up short is a near impossibility.
Lets hope for the best.
I guess that's where my understanding seems to different. Every defense of TSLA's value that I've seen is that the market is viewing $120 as based on Tesla's long term potential as a major player and industry disrupter. There is zero reason TSLA would be worth $120 based on current quarterly EPS expectations.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Yes, but that vision of the future involves them losing 16c this quarter. If they profit this quarter, investors may need to adjust their vision of what the future looks like even more.
Also, there is day traders and short squeeze to think about. A bump due to those factors would be temporary though.
Anything below 150 will cost you all of your money. The value of your options will be Zero.
You chance/ risk Ratio is......well not existent. Even if the stock goes to 160 after earnings you don't make a profit.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I plan to sell before expiry. Why are you always commenting on options when clearly you do not understand them?
Ok, thanks, putting it that way clicked for me. I'm not sure I see a "massive" bump happening, at least not a permanent one, but I can certainly see folks reevaluating their ideas of worse/average/best case for Tesla.
Maybe I'm looking too far into it, but I think the fact that Elon is announcing the Hyperloop almost guarantees a non-GAAP profit. If there is a loss then I think the Hyperloop announcement gives the shorts way too much opportunity to bash Elon and the company. While we know the announcement is just to give the design away, the shorts would try to turn it into a PR disaster and say things like, "Unprofitable Tesla Spreading Itself too Thin on Crazy, Money Losing Ideas." Elon hates shorts, so I just can't imagine he would give them such a great opportunity to bash Tesla. Elon also loves to orchestrate hype and then leverage that to help the shareholder or company (look at Q1, the secondary offering, and the 5 part trilogy) To me, it is just too coincidental that the announcement is only a few days after earnings.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Hi Realist, welcome back. I guess TSLA hasn't been anywhere near your 91 short position in the last month; I dont recall what your timing was but did you manage to hedge anything in the last weeks or do you think we'll get a Q2 contrary to expectations?
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
You won for today; the AUG $130s were up $90 (14.9%) a contract. However, it took a $2.37 increase in the share price to achieve that. Meanwhile theta is -.21 on that contract, so we need to see continual movement up in the stock price or IV increase to makeup for time decay. Even though I don't think there is a lot more room up in the stock price before the ER I do think IV will add a good positive effect which I think makes it worth buying now except for that pesky possibility of downward motion in the stock price.
I'll probably hop on some AUG $130s Tuesday/Wednesday next week once a few more trading days show it's not going to drop again. Any gains I miss I will call my insurance premium that I had to pay for being safe. Until then I am in DEC $130s, JAN15 100s, a JAN15 70 and JAN15 $150s and most of my money in TSLA stock so definitely will not completely miss the bus if it starts to leave the station.
ShortSlaver
Member
Yes, today was pure luck. I called the bottom, made a move and got lucky. For a day.
You're right, there's a lot of time for really bad things to happen before ER. I'm hoping they don't.
I'personally hoping for another good day tomorrow, break out into the 127 range and stay above 125 until ER. Time will tell.
I should add I also bought to close my AUG 140 covered calls after making a good profit selling those a couple weeks ago at 130 or so. Using that profit to buy these 130's now.
It's more interesting than all of that. There is a bull case, a bear case and analysts (allegedly neutral) estimates. If Tesla is profitable in Q2 with solid margins (17%+ non ZEV) and non-GAAP and possibly GAAP profitable, then the bears are short-squeezed, the analysts are required to revise up....currently the guidance for 2013 is a -.04 loss. If that changes to a guidance of +.90-1.00/ share for 2013 and 2014 guidance of $2.50 to 3.00/ share EPS then then the paradigm shifts. It's no longer just about Gen III, it is about a high growth, very profitable company - with a high-upside future. If you value the stock based on forward EPS, that means at an 80x multiple a $200 - 240 share price.
I dont know if the market will deign to grant an 80 multiple based on a 2014 EPS of $3.00, but they are currently living on a forward multiple of about 130x estimated EPS...put that with short interest, convertible shares and small float and you have an interesting stew for August 8th. I am almost 100% similar to Johan in my approach. It is optimism in options for Aug 2013 and Sep 2013 tempered by a base of shares and way in the money LEAPS ( Jan 2014 $75, 100 & $115).
Its funny to talk like traders on this thread, but, in truth, most of us are believers that trade on that belief. It is buying Jonathan Hewitt his 85kw, Blue, grey interior beauty (please post picks, your choice is nearly identical to the config I would choose) and making most of us, on paper, much richer.
I believe that Tesla will succeed, I believe that the current stock price is based on an estimate of a -.04 EPS in 2013 and a $.96 EPS for 2014. I believe Tesla and Elon will shatter both those false analyses on Aug 7th and the market will decide how to react.
Cheers.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Yeah, when I first invested in TSLA my only goal was to one day be able to afford a Tesla. Based on my quick success thus far I have now changed my goals to owning 2 Teslas
I will be sure to post pics in the "ordering, production, delivery" subforum here in about 2 weeks! It's nice to find someone with similar taste!
Acmykguy
Member
I did something similar....closed all my aug. calls and rolled to sept. The only thing I have in AUG. I fear saying......100 puts at 60 strike for 8 cents. Just in case. If We go up which I am 80% sure, I loose next to nothing. If we get hammered for whatever reason, I reduce my losses.Yes, today was pure luck. I called the bottom, made a move and got lucky. For a day.
You're right, there's a lot of time for really bad things to happen before ER. I'm hoping they don't.
I'personally hoping for another good day tomorrow, break out into the 127 range and stay above 125 until ER. Time will tell.
I should add I also bought to close my AUG 140 covered calls after making a good profit selling those a couple weeks ago at 130 or so. Using that profit to buy these 130's now.
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NICE! When does your second one come? Mine is tomorrow!Yeah, when I first invested in TSLA my only goal was to one day be able to afford a Tesla. Based on my quick success thus far I have now changed my goals to owning 2 Teslas
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Haha, nice! Congrats. I'm thinking our next Tesla will be a Model X for the wife. Timing will depend on how well TSLA does. I'm thinking the money will be there for such a purchase once we see a $300/share price, which means I am now posting in the wrong thread...that is unless I buy a bunch of those AUG $150 calls and get really lucky...Put me in for a reservation for the Model X signature edition!
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