your perspective seems rational by normal measures as has all the skepticism at every turn up this mountain of success that Tesla has achieved. normal measures for a company and a stock seem to be going out the window for a lot of us because so far, against all odds, the bears and nay sayers have been wrong over and over again. the concerted effort to keep Tesla and TSLA down has perhaps created a spring board for the bulls and fans. every month that passes, it appears that Tesla is essentially like no other, a first of sorts, where no normal measures apply. that's not to say that ultimate success is guaranteed but this golden road to unlimited devotion is paved by the very nature of this disruptive technology, it's potential is truly historic. in the realm of alternative fueled cars I can say with confidence that there is huge pent up demand for something other than a gas car, perhaps not at the luxury car level but pretty much each tier of the market has a group that is eager for something new and is jumping as they become convinced that electromotion is it. a significant number of these folks are going way out ahead of what they usually buy to get into an S because it's relatively guilt free and it's inspiring and because they want to support the leader. what is striking to me with regard to TSLA with respect to the car, is the sheer number of folks who have said to me "wow, this car is amazing! I can't afford it yet, but I'm definitely investing in the stock!" maybe it's time to cut your losses and gain them back by going long! :~)
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
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I think you're dead wrong on demand. Everything seems to point to larger world wide demand over time, not less.
Warranty expenses are definitely a concern. I've had numerous problems with the car. All minor, but each one requires work by Tesla. I'm not sure it'll affect the stock price much though. First, Tesla holds back some cash for warranty expenses from what I gather (no shock there). I think by the time they burn through that money, they'll be producing at a higher quality and a higher rate. Tesla can afford to have some issues that'll bite them in the future because by the time it comes back to bite them it'll be small in relation to their production at that point.
Also, all cars hard recalls and teething problems it part of the name of the game. Lucky for Tesla mechanically there is not a whole lot that can go wrong and therefore not cost them nearly as much.
We bought the 2002 GMC Envoy which was soon after named the SUV of the year by Motor tread and JD Power. i cant even count how many recalls that thing had, and one was MAJOR. The car's compressor had a fault and the air suspension would lose all its air. New Compressor, Compressor CPU, Shock Airbags, (since they full deflated the ripped) labor and tow most of cost GM a fortune but that car didnt go under.
(side note, Audi is recalling tens of thousands of 2.0T engine cuz of extreme oil consumption, oh and did i mention they already went through the same thing with the 3.2L v6)
EV cars since the extreme lack of moving parts, there really is little to go wrong that would cost them a huge amount at this point. Really only major points of failure is around the battery and electric motors. No physical failures like that, they are going to be just fine. Besides that its a bloke with a laptop making the necessary software fixes.
We bought the 2002 GMC Envoy which was soon after named the SUV of the year by Motor tread and JD Power. i cant even count how many recalls that thing had, and one was MAJOR. The car's compressor had a fault and the air suspension would lose all its air. New Compressor, Compressor CPU, Shock Airbags, (since they full deflated the ripped) labor and tow most of cost GM a fortune but that car didnt go under.
(side note, Audi is recalling tens of thousands of 2.0T engine cuz of extreme oil consumption, oh and did i mention they already went through the same thing with the 3.2L v6)
EV cars since the extreme lack of moving parts, there really is little to go wrong that would cost them a huge amount at this point. Really only major points of failure is around the battery and electric motors. No physical failures like that, they are going to be just fine. Besides that its a bloke with a laptop making the necessary software fixes.
kevin99
Member
Too much excitement today. I want to throw in a cool-down question that needs some brain cycle. 
Exactly how the short interest (shares) are calculated? Other than directly shorting the shares, shorting can be also in the form of
1. buying a put
2. selling a call
I actually do #2 from time to time just to hedge. Even though I make less money as result of it, it seems a must to maintain some sanity in this crazy run. I just roll into another weekly short call OTM today.
So are the above two outstanding options factored in the short interest? If yes how are the effective shares(Delta) being calculated? The tricky part is the delta of option will change depending on
a. current stock price
b. remaining days to expire
I have this question for sometime now. Would love to get some clarity on this!
Exactly how the short interest (shares) are calculated? Other than directly shorting the shares, shorting can be also in the form of
1. buying a put
2. selling a call
I actually do #2 from time to time just to hedge. Even though I make less money as result of it, it seems a must to maintain some sanity in this crazy run. I just roll into another weekly short call OTM today.
So are the above two outstanding options factored in the short interest? If yes how are the effective shares(Delta) being calculated? The tricky part is the delta of option will change depending on
a. current stock price
b. remaining days to expire
I have this question for sometime now. Would love to get some clarity on this!
Warranty expenses not a concern at all for me. The main reason is because Tesla owns all their service centers and can keep costs low on repairs and recalls.
Other auto manufacturers need to go through their dealer network for warranty repairs and recalls, and as know the dealers mark up service costs tremendously. If something takes 20 minutes, they'll charge an hour of work. However, for Tesla there's no incentive to over-charging the customer because the goal of their service centers isn't to maximize profit but to keep at break-even while maximizing customer service.
In other words, Tesla doesn't need to go through the middle men of dealer/stealerships and thus can manage service/warranty repairs at a much lower cost compared to other auto manufacturers. Plus, there are much fewer moving parts in an EV compared to an ICE, which means much less parts to service.
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Not to mention that Tesla will work out the glitches as they ramp up production. Of course the new cars will have defects that need to be repaired. But think of it this way:
The first 1k cars produced will probably be in the service center about 5 times for warranty repairs.
The next 5k will be in about 4 times for warranty repair.
The next 10 k will be in 3 times for repair.
etc.
They will work out all of the glitches on a low volume of cars, and when they start mass producing cars without hardly any glitches the warranty liabiliity might actually have to be written down on the balance sheet which will result in a profit on the income statement (I expect this to happen in the future years).
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
ShortSlaver
Member
Markets heading for green possibly soon - NASDAQ green now. This definitely helps, lets see if it holds up to close the day...
The income tax differential on gains realized after less or more than a year can be quite large considering the huge leap in the price of TSLA shares in recent months. Instead, those who are risk averse might consider purchasing insurance through exchange traded options.
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Too much excitement today. I want to throw in a cool-down question that needs some brain cycle.
Exactly how the short interest (shares) are calculated? Other than directly shorting the shares, shorting can be also in the form of
1. buying a put
2. selling a call
I actually do #2 from time to time just to hedge. Even though I make less money as result of it, it seems a must to maintain some sanity in this crazy run. I just roll into another weekly short call OTM today.
So are the above two outstanding options factored in the short interest? If yes how are the effective shares(Delta) being calculated? The tricky part is the delta of option will change depending on
a. current stock price
b. remaining days to expire
I have this question for sometime now. Would love to get some clarity on this!
No, options are not considered regarding short interest. Short interest is only based on actual shares borrowed and then immediately sold. Eventually those shares must be bought back and returned to the lender unless the price goes to zero.
Regarding options: a bull is long a call or short a put; a bear is short a call or long a put. The terms long and short can be ambiguous when attempting to describe an options player as a bull or a bear, unless calls or puts are specified.
kevin99
Member
Thanks Curt!
Without factoring in options, do you think the short interests is less valid to evaluate the true short interest? Nowadays I doubt any sophisticated shorter of TSLA will go just short the shares, it is just suicidal if they haven't learned. I suspect option short play is probably more than the shares, if we calculate the delta.
GlennAlanBerry
Member
Not sure what you are talking about, fjm9898. TSLA is up quite nicely today, and the overall market is pretty flat for the day (with a late rise).
look at the trend the DOW and NASDAQ pretty consistent upward motion since the low of the day. TSLA followed it up before noon then hit the 129 mark and stopped. showing major resistance around the 129-129.5. I am talking about the movement today. not TSLA over all value. The was not able to trend any further up on the back of the market increasing upward all day.
have you explained this in detail in a book that I can buy anywhere? I could sure use an "eTrade For Dummies" :~)
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Back to "pre-crash" territory. Anyone who got in when the price plunged 18 pts. earlier this month must be breaking out the champaign!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 2
I don't have the text but did read it. I like how they start out. We made a mistake before wow I can't remember an analyst starting out like that
Well, not the champagne, but certainly the aged 100% straight Rye whiskey. ALthough I am strictly a long-term investor, I had sold off a portion of my TSLA in order to pay for the Model S. And as I wrote elsewhere, I added to my holdings "post Goldman", picking it up at 108.31. So, yes, it's been a very good week.
Acmykguy
Member
I respectfully totally disagree. If it were oh say .........a FISKER........I would agree. The difference is huge. Tesla has had some minor issues. All remedied quickly and being in the sourcing business, fairly cost effectively too. They will iron out the little things here and there but rest assured, they are here to stay. Have you driven one? If not you should. I think your mindset would change. I have had Bentleys, etc, and this car is in a league of its own. Tesla is in the process of changing history and all these wide price swings will slowly erode. The uptrend will continue for years. There will be pull backs, there will be sharp pull backs bc technically there has to be for every stock. those are buying opportunities and if you do not seize them you will be back to horse and buggy days I am afraid.
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